Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Heavy bands of rain look a feature this week that will produce big rainfall totals especially in the SW, S, SE where flooding looks to be a possibility.
Thunderstorms quite possible later Tues into Weds morning along the SW, S and SE coasts mainly, a lot might stay offshore but some could stray inland also. Again during Weds another active front could bring thunderstorms with some very heavy local falls, preliminiary charts look very active during Weds day into the night spreading up the country, must have a closer look at this.
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I dont know JanurarySnowstor, looking very heavy overnight late Tuesday into Weds morning, AROME showing widespread 30-40mm and good parts getting 50mm+ and the area just to the East of Cork City getting 70 to 80mm all in about 18hrs, getting into a possible Orange warning level I would think.
Must be said the American models showing less at this stage, ICON showing a bit more than GFS but less than the others, HARMOIE showing the higher totals further East. A better idea of what area gets the heaviest rainfall might need a couple more runs but the chance of some very heavy rainfall is possible.
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Some very high totals showing up for the next 24 hrs or so, GFS is probably the lowest and perhaps not performing as well as the European models with this kind of a set up. Interesting how the HAMONIE is foccussed on the East.
A couple of models showing around 80 mm + in places but as can be seen showing different locations, high end orange warning , could it even go to red warning level ?
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Bands of moderate and heavy rain in places out to +12hrs, not wet all the time , dry for large parts of the country tomorrow but showers in the S, SE ,more persistent rain spreading up the country tomorrow evening, wet damp day on Fri by the looks of it for a lot of the country, again will be broken and not wet all the time and only light in places, after that more bands of rain but at least there will be drier interludes as well. Breezy later tomorrow night into Fri. Mild out to Sun at least, could get up to 18C tomorrow, and mid teens or slightly above until Sun.
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European models have been ramping up very windy conditions next Weds along with some heavy rain, temperatures falling back next week and moving to to more normal seasonal values from Monday , will feel cooler getting up to highs of around 10 to 12C or so during the day with colder nights .
No shortage of rain. Potential for a very windy or stormy event towards next weekend, better left in the +120hr thread for now.
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Was wondering the same thing myself, they are remarkably quiet about it, certainly looking very strong now for a number of runs, ECM stronger again this run, widespread yellow and orange very possible in some counties I would think. Bit to go yet with timing but certainly looks like the coastal counties will get a fair lash of of potentially damaging winds from Weds morning, many of them in Orange territory, very strong winds overland for a time, wouldn't be surprised that this storm will cause some damage even inland, some very high mean wind speeds overland especially in the Northern half of the country from the afternoon, could see a lot of counties there get winds in the Orange category for a time. Relatively fast moving storm deepening on its approach down as low as 971hPa , unstable airmass , heavy frontal rain with heavy blustery convective showers embedded, quite possibly getting thunderstorms especially along the Atlantic Seaboard after the front goes through in the unstable airmass, initially about 12 or 13C but getting much cooler post frontal passage. High rain totals in the W, NW but anywhere under convective showers cold get heavy rain.
One to keep an eye on.
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LP dominated weather with a smaller area of LP breaking away from the parent low sending in frontal rains and strong winds through Monday. Met Eireann have issued wind warnings. Wet day Monday also with heaviest falls along Atlantic coastal counties especially higher ground and in particular the Mountains of Kerry. Later into early Tuesday Morning possibility of thunderstorm's along southern coasts but mainly staying over the sea.
Looks set to get up to 14 or 15C tomorrow and possibly touching 16C in places in those mild southerlies.
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In general the models after much chopping and changing beginning to hone in on around Monday evening /night into early Tues morning for the deppression to move quickly up off the W coasts sending in an active frontal system with strong winds sweeping up over the country accompanied by heavy rain. Will need to see how strong the winds will be and exact timing. Models getting closely bunched, ARPEGE probably a good average of them at this stage. Will be somewhat cooler in general, might be a warm sector in there but probably swept aside quickly.
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Plenty more rain to fall tomorrow into Tuesday on top of already saturated ground in places. I see high tide is around 20.52 in Cork Harbour tomorrow night, onshore S'ly strong winds, in neaps so not too bad but there must be a fine run of water coming down the Lee.
Cork Harbour Monday 14-11-22
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Huge difference in the models for Monday with each one having a different track for the quick moving areas of LP and each showing different tracks and strength for the Jet, below can see the ECM showing a wave quickly forming off the parent low to produce strong winds in the SW initially and and again later as the main area of LP swings back down over the country. Very low confidence in the models at this stage will have to see how they develop, could be nothing much just blustery or perhaps something strong depending on how it pans out. Difficult one to forecast but worth keeping an eye on it, fast moving aided by the jet, starting to see those stronger temperature gradients and fast jet that can whip up strong wind producing systems very quickly.
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HARMONIE a good representation of the Orange warning issued by Met Eireann, rainfall due to arrive later tonight over in the Eastern half of the country and very heavy rain showing up on the model for tomorrow morning, showing most of the rain going to fall in a few hours.
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