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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

2

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Just a quick one first on the Cork floods. This was well predicted with the gfs showing torrential rain for Sunday. The Met should have gone for an orange rainfall warning. Easy to be wise now of course I do admit.

    Re rest of the week, it looks to me more of a constant rain situation rather than anything too torrential. Will there be more flooding? I doubt it as its the intensity that causes flooding and that's not on the menu.

    I don't see any storms in the offing Meteorite, but am happy to be proven wrong!



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,499 ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    I'm not sure of what criteria exist for making an Orange rain alert, but the extent of the rainfall and subsequent flooding was not expected.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    It was predicted on every gfs run for about 3 days beforehand. Yellows and light red on the ppn charts leading up to Sunday. Light red is very unusual on ppn charts so it was predicting something torrential!!

    In contrast next few days is just showing normal persistent type rain..



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,514 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    I dont know JanurarySnowstor, looking very heavy overnight late Tuesday into Weds morning, AROME showing widespread 30-40mm and good parts getting 50mm+ and the area just to the East of Cork City getting 70 to 80mm all in about 18hrs, getting into a possible Orange warning level I would think.

    Must be said the American models showing less at this stage, ICON showing a bit more than GFS but less than the others, HARMOIE showing the higher totals further East. A better idea of what area gets the heaviest rainfall might need a couple more runs but the chance of some very heavy rainfall is possible.










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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,719 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Same story from gfs this morning.

    Quite a bit of rain to fall Wed to Sun. Persistent at times, but nothing disruptive showing compared to last Sunday. Typical October fayre really



  • Registered Users Posts: 201 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Most of the models showing a very severe windstorm all day Wednesday along the west coast particularly and inland. Arpege has gusts to 140kmph, ECM and GFS 120kmph.

    Not a word about it on Met Eireann, just that it'll be a 'windy day'. Poor form given it's a holiday week and people will be travelling west this week. I know of people who came down to this neck of the woods blissfully unaware even though it's been well flagged on the models for 3-4 days



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,712 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Orange warnings issued now for Wednesday, will it be a named storm?



  • Registered Users Posts: 563 ✭✭✭Cumhachtach


    If Orange, for a number of counties, it generally does.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Marine only for now. Not sure if that meets criteria for naming a storm.



  • Registered Users Posts: 563 ✭✭✭Cumhachtach


    A bit of a feeling with Met Eireann that they're getting today's 'event' out of the way before focusing on Wednesday. I suppose not to overly confuse people who might mix up the two.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,190 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Flooding expected in Mallow and Fermoy! Very persistent rain in north cork now



  • Registered Users Posts: 201 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Mostly downgrades since yesterday for tomorrow's winds and the system looks to hitting a little further south. Still a spread on the models though, some like GFS and UKMO are showing a very brief event in the morning with strong southerly winds then the center of the low swings south, others like Arpege, Icon and ECMWF show the back edge still bringing some strong gusts of 120km briefly from a WNW direction in the late afternoon.

    UKMO have consistently shown a non-event for the past 3 days, Arpege have consistently shown a strong event.

    Unusual to see a relatively big difference between ECM and GFS at just 24 hours away.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,648 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Plenty more storms possible on latest GFS run though a bit of an outlier rom previous runs. The mild spell I was expecting is obliterated on this set of runs by windy wet conditions.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,514 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The W and NW looks quite wet also on tonight's ECM 12Z




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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Potential for snow over the highest peaks in the east on Monday morning...



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,001 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser




  • Registered Users Posts: 42,752 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989






  • Marginal uppers at that time. Small chance maybe.




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,648 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Monday looks quite cold on some of the Runs. Some of the GFS members have temperature around 2 or 3c in places but these are outliers. Mostly 6s and 7s.





  • Yep, most of the runs aren't going with a cold scenario.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,514 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HARMONIE a good representation of the Orange warning issued by Met Eireann, rainfall due to arrive later tonight over in the Eastern half of the country and very heavy rain showing up on the model for tomorrow morning, showing most of the rain going to fall in a few hours.







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