Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It's only a matter of time until Russia withdraw from the part of the Kherson region that's north of the Dnipro. In fact, I think it could happen very soon.

No.

He was opening up a Ferris Wheel in Moscow today.

Losing Kharkiv oblast is not really enough for panic stations. The only chance that Putin would ever be threatened is through Ukraine kick Russian out of all occupied territories including Crimea.

It's another reason why Western countries should be aiding Ukraine as much as possible. Because the end of Putin is a distinct possibility if Ukraine is able to regain Crimea.

I suppose my point was Putin has had years of pushing the envelope without any significant pushback from Europe or the US. Killing citizens abroad, Russian troll farms, Cyber terrorism, Annexing Crimea, Syria, he has done so much and gotten away with it.

He's also been the poster boy for authoritarian leaders, Orban etc. giving the impression that an alternative Russian centred world order was possible. Surely that's blown out of the water now.

Here is the largest size version of the image I can find: https://i.imgur.com/Cyfmn7i.jpeg

It's 3312 x 4800 so any local specialist photo printer should be able to print it to 40cm in height at 300dpi.

Most of what Putin had been doing prior to this year was cloak and dagger stuff that he could kind of distance himself from a little bit. The glaring exception would be Crimea, but I think the reason he got away with that was that the takeover was almost bloodless and he could proclaim (not without some basis, to be fair) that the takeover was welcomed by the locals. The West could say it didn't like the land grab, but it just didn't generate enough of an outrage to interfere. Besides which, the Ukrainian military was in no position to respond and the US military was not going to directly confront Russia over it. Even the Georgia campaign, although bloodier, was over quite quickly, and had come as an apparent surprise.

The West had learned some lessons from these moves Putin made and began to watch Russia a lot more closely. It didn't help Russia that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine (as it looked like Russia originally tried to do) would take the kind of buildup and planning that simply could not go unnoticed. It also could not go unpunished because it was happening right next to a swathe of NATO countries. And to really pile the insanity on, Russia has intimated on more than one occasion that they did not intend to stop at Ukraine. The mask had really slipped from Putin's botox smooth face. He should have stuck to the cheeky jabs instead of going for the clumsy haymaker and leaving himself wide open for the counter punch.

All part of tbe plan I suppose LOL

What happened with Russia's tactic of shelling in a everything in front of them? Did they run out of shells or are specific new weapons given to the Ukrainian military making the difference?

I was going to ask what shot it down yesterday. Only thing about that I would find surprising is that Russian anti-aircraft are capable of hitting anything, even if it is their own.

Yes, but I had thought the Russians had been keeping Ukrainian forces at bay or pushing them back by raining indiscriminate artillery fire from distance, so what has changed that Ukrainian forces have been able to penetrate Russia's iron rain?

From what I've seen, their artillery is generally outranged by the western systems that have entered service in recent months. From what I've seen, even the M777 towed howitzer can outrange most Russian artillery when using the right charges. That's without taking into consideration the M109s and their derivatives or the PzH-2000, which can "shoot and scoot" before the Russians can direct counter battery fire onto their positions, even if they are in range.

Speaking of artillery, I've just seen that Germany has delivered the promised COBRA counter-battery radar system. Life is about to get even worse for the Russians.

They got caught out badly by the moves and by all accounts the Ukrainian army in that sector are loaded up on western weaponry. No flexibility in Russian forces at all either in tactics or command against what now seems to be a pretty modern military force.

It would be nice if those A-10s could turn up about now; those columns of retreating orcs - brrrrttttttt.

Now if Putler would only call it a draw. As in, gtfo and start paying a centuries worth of reparations. Plus war crimes prosecutions.

It must be a difficult sell for the Russian military commanders. Their troops would be well aware they've invaded a neighbouring state with many shared traditions and family. They must also feel very vulnerable to the big hidden hand in all this - the remote intelligence gathering that NATO and other allies can feed to the Ukrainians, never mind local informants. It'd have to be unnerving to be at risk of attack without even being aware of it. The Russian military must also have similar capacity but not to the same extent. And winter approaches.