Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Let's hope it doesn't come at a similar cost for the Ukrainians.

The ongoing offensive is delivering the first proper psychological blow to the Russian public - the VC/NVA lost in Tet but won. Intelligence and accurate weapons versus shelling in this ridiculous war make an name for yourself putin conflict.

He's braver than we thought.

Good read in NY Times

As Russians Retreat, Putin Is Criticized by Hawks Who Trumpeted His War

“You’re throwing a billion-ruble party,” one pro-Russian blogger wrote in a widely circulated post on Saturday, referring to the Putin-led celebrations in Moscow commemorating the 875th anniversary of the city’s founding. “What is wrong with you? Not at the time of such a horrible failure.”

"The stunned fury reflects how some analysts believe many in the Russian elite view the war: a campaign rife with incompetence, conducted on the cheap, that can only be won if Mr. Putin mobilizes the nation onto a war footing and declares a draft."

You are underestimating Ukrainians and belling cat (CIA).

When Russia is on its knees, begging the west for financial aid, as they did last time, you just make the kids the currency of exchange and you wont even need to go sleuthing or open the archive of intel data gathered.

Hopefully this media blackout is lifted today and we get more positive news. Lot's of rumours floating about and the "front line" is surely Very fluid. Can't wait to see where it all settles.

If it helps them in their operation (and robs the Russians of a source of intel) I’m all for the media blackouts.

As an interested observer I’d prefer to know it all in realtime, but more importantly I’d prefer Ukraine to win.

I was out of the news loop a bit beyond the whole Queen stuff, but damn…in future years I hope to read the details of what exactly caused the Russians to bug out on this front. In a matter of days and hours Ukraine took back strategic towns I had expected the Russians to fortify and fight hard to keep. There’s even some reports of Ukraine coming all the way back to Lysychansk.

This appears to be a complete collapse of their defensive line and it might be that they are unable (or in the case of some conscripts, unwilling) to establish a new one. With luck, they might bug out all the way to the border and back to the Donesk trenches.

My only guess is that we might have reached a sort of zero-sum game with the Russians where they simply don’t have enough materials or troops to effectively keep any of this up. They might have gambled and redeployed their best stuff to Kherson, hoping that Ukraine wouldn’t notice how poorly defended the Northern lines were. But I guess, Ukraine noticed, and now Russia has their best available gear & troops (be it, still piss poor) either deployed in a pocket that is now isolated around Kherson, or they were in transit and are now stalled mid-way trying to figure out who needs them more.

If we’re really lucky, that batch of better quality gear/troops might be all they have left. In that case, Ukraine might eventually have a shot at getting the 2 puppet “Republics” back. Maybe even Crimea if Russian Command & Control goes to hell (which frankly is where it belongs).

Correct, while Tet was a military failure, the psychological blow probably proved fatal. Pictures of the NVA in Saigon attacking the US embassy brought the reality of an unwinnable war home, I believe this northern offensive may do the same im RU

A huge thanks to all those who have kept this thread the most up to date source of information of what's happening in Ukraine.

We are watching the power balance of the world changing more than it has in the last 70 years. The information on here has been so welcome and especially the detail around the significance of particular junctures of the war and particularly significant moments and places captured etc.

To those of us fascinate with this conflict and especially the wider context of it it has been exceptional reading. (There's even been the chance to laugh at the outrageous nonsense of a few Putin fanboys)

Putin has been the lightning rod for all sorts of crank dictators and has been the hub of attempts to establish an alternative world order away from or opposing to the American led world order that has been in place since the two world wars. Putin has been the ultimate school bully, pushing the boundaries all the time, getting away with it because the teachers didn't care enough or were too distracted to deal with him. This time the enough of the staff have had enough.

The image of America retreating from Kabul in total disarray is well forgotten now. Joe Biden has much to thank Putin for. After Donald Trumps disastrous foreign policy and discord, Putin has suddenly united the West. Surely he won't be allowed to continue in charge in Russia??