Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I've been following this guy Willy beating cancer for a while now. He comes across as measured and eager for the wider context and truth of things in this war and as an ex military guy he'd have some insight there too. He is far more sympathetic on a personal level towards the Ukrainian cause, but that hasn't stopped him from asking questions. Things like how some of the foreign fighters experiences, incompetent and wasteful Ukrainian commanders and the like are being ignored or glossed over.

Anyway his latest vid explains how he was trying to get acreddited by the Russian authorities to report from inside the Donbas to get that wider picture and truth from that side(even though it would almost certainly mean the Ukrainians would never let him back in) and surprise, surprise they turned him down. I'm shocked I tells ya....

Anyway what he said as part of this as almost an aside jumped out for me:

"Russia's taking a lot of territory lately". Yet others in the media are usually saying they're stalled for over a month and even ready to pull back from some areas?

Not that I know of, but to be fair I'm not watching Russian TV and can't speak it and Russian bots on twitter seem to be either Indians or Africans jumping for joy against the "west" so...

One Russian I know who is supportive of Russia(mostly from loyalty because it's Russia, deeper questions are not asked or answered) did say to me a couple of weeks ago when I mentioned the apparent stalling that according to him/them they bumped into some heavliy fortified Ukrainian positions which was costly in men and materiel so are standing off and hitting them with artilliery and after they're reduced to rubble moving in the troops and tanks and its moving slowly, but they are moving forward.

Who's to say at this stage. Outside of the morality and casualties all wars when they boil down to it are propaganda and economics. Ukraine has certainly won the former and let's face it Russia is helping them with their idiotic near childish attempts at propaganda and their bumbling push on Kyiv and the atrocities they left in their wake among other things like no independent journos from the West.

Economically Russia's now screwed as far as access to Western economies and investment, but still flogging their oil and gas raking in billlions(Turkey's now openly buying their oil, no doubt at some discount) and with the Ukrainian land they've already stolen they're sitting on even more natural resources. They may as well go all in at this stage. Putin could have called for some sort of BS "humanitarian" ceasefire along the front to take the international pressure off and the pressure from his own troops and consolidate, but he hasn't. And it's not as if he'd be against reneging on any deal when it turned to his advantage to do so. This suggests to me he reckons he doesn't need to.

Ukraine on the other hand is in a far more tenous position economically. It's pretty much entirely reliant on outside help. Outside help that is in turn reliant on public opinion in democratic nations, public opinion that could shift. EG in places like Germany come winter. The US are most likely to keep piling on as they get to bleed out their enemy from the sidelines and at a relative bargain as far as their overall defence budget goes, but they're also dealing and in a sabre rattling contest with China over Taiwan. If push comes to shove and it's an either or, I'd bet they'd pivot to the Taiwanese. Again because of basic economics and the Pacific is much more in their and their allies "back yard" in many ways. They know Putin won't move beyond the borders of Ukraine and attack a NATO country. That his ambitions and capabilities are confined to what he's already stolen and maybe the Black sea coast.

In the long term Russia will lose. Beligerent armies and nations who don't offer anything better than the previous status quo pretty much always do. This is what eejits like Hitler who wanted to ape the Roman empire always fail to understand; Outside of her military might Rome spread and stayed put most of all because after the battles were over, bodies were buried and the dust settled Rome offered the potential of a better life, a better economy and more cash in the pocket of those they conquered and invited those they conquered into their world as equal citizens. That's why I have always held that for Putin the EU is far more dangerous an entity than NATO with all their tanks and missiles. The differences between a town in Mother Russia and anywhere across the EU border are stark. That's why he and those who follow him hate something like the EU.

My 3 cents anyway.