Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Who can possibly know the number of casualties on either side: killed, wounded or missing/ fled. The Ukrainians or Russians likely wouldn't know. So you'd have to think that any estimates from outside are just that and could all be part of propaganda fed from either side.

From the briefing, you do get that impression. However, there are several large caveats with that. For starters, it's the age of the video. It's over a month old at this point and that is an eternity in the current war. It does not take into consideration the ongoing HIMARS and M270 rollout, and neither does it take into consideration the recent delivery of MARS-II MLRS and additional Pzh-2000 from Germany and the Netherlands, which now allows Ukraine to field a full artillery battalion just out of the MARS-II and Pzh-2000 vehicles. Also, Colonel Reisner is not going to be publicly disclosing any information that Austria may have acquired through clandestine means.

It also looks now as if Ukraine was able to pull a surprising number of units out of Severodonetsk and conduct an effective retreat from Lysychansk without sacrificing large numbers of troops, which speaks to the skill of the battlefield commanders. A coordinated retreat in the middle of battle is pretty much the most complex maneuver that a battlefield commander can be faced with. Whilst losses are still likely going to be high, I do not assess the situation to be as grim as it may appear to be from this video.

There's also the resupply issue. Granted, Russia has massive equipment reserves that they can pull from. But the quality of that equipment is questionable in many cases, and includes T-64s and even some T-60s, tanks from the 1960s. There has also been an increase in the number of documented equipment malfunctions on the Russian side, from missiles that veer off course almost immediately after launch, to artillery guns bursting and other failures, indicating storage and/or maintenance issues. Also, Russia is, according to numerous reports, increasingly reliant on mercenary groups like Wagner, and has recently resorted to recruiting from jails, as well as continuing to bring in reserve units from every corner of Russia except the heartland. Many of these are conscript units without much in the way of military training, whilst others are made up of retirement age veterans pulled back into service. It says quite a bit that Russia hasn't been able to make much progress in breaching the Slovyansk-Bakhmut defensive line despite their success in the Battle for Donbas.

Russia has also not been able to assert air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force is still operating at what seems to be close to its pre-war strength, conducting strikes, combat air patrols and other similar missions. Colonel Reisner is correct in pointing out the number of missiles that have so far been launched at Ukraine. However, many of these were launched from bombers that were still in Russian or Belorussian airspace at the time of launch. There's no indication that the Russian Air Force has been able or willing to conduct operations beyond the immediate front lines or in the Ukrainian rear. Given the demonstrated blatant disregard for civilian casualties, we should have seen massed attacks with free-fall bombs at this stage, but there's nothing.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to be able to cycle units back from the front line for reinforcement, R&R and passing their experience on to new units being stood up, giving even newly formed reserve units a qualitative edge over their Russian counterparts. Ukraine also continues to receive high-quality equipment from its western allies, with the number of armored vehicles, MRAPs, MRLS & HIMARS systems seemingly increasing on a weekly basis, whilst highly advanced systems such as NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM are in the pipeline. Ukraine has also proven very adept at converting commercially available UAVs into weapons systems, with multicopters of all shapes and sizes being effectively used as ultra-compact UCAVs. Morale continues to be seemingly high across the armed forces as well.

Ukraine also appears to have the edge in intelligence. A frequent talking point on this thread is the presence of NATO EW, ELINT and SIGINT assets right outside Ukrainian airspace, whether that's US EP-3 "Aries" or Global Hawk, Royal Air Force Airseeker R.1, Italian or Swedish assets. It is safe to assume that the information gathered by these systems, as well as that gathered by NATO orbital and HUMINT assets, flows straight into Ukrainian high command, after being sanitised, of course. Ukraine itself appears to be dominating in the electronic battlespace, a fact helped by the fact that the Russian forces still seem to have to rely on mobile phones and commercially available radios for a lot of their tactical communication.

It'll be interesting to see how Colonel Reisner's next briefing is going to look like. I do like that he takes a somewhat "dimmer" approach than many posters on here, me included, as that gives a much needed reality check. However, given how fast things are evolving in the combat area, a lot can happen in a month.

With all the furore of events happening in Crimea yesterday, this little bit of news didn't make as much headlines.

I do wonder if their is any major offensive to take back Kherson, how much locals and partisans may be able to help and effect the outcome.

I would imagine that if it was special forces on a specific mission, then they'd have known exactly where to place their explosives to get the most...er...bang for their bomb.

Well, to be fair, the Ukrainians are operating in their own backyard. They probably had detailed plans of the base from the time it was one of theirs, as well as the best satellite images that NATO could provide. Plus, operational security doesn't seem to have been particularly tight at the base, those ammo dumps were mostly out in the open and it looks like nearby aircraft were fueled and armed in preparation for upcoming sorties.

This is how it happens

Compare the damage to Yelenokova attack the Russian claim came from Ukrainan HiMars

Ballpark figure?

Ukraine conflict: 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since start of war (brusselstimes.com)

I get all that. I don't mean they need to say HOW they did it, merely confirm THAT they did it.

Which it seems they now have done.

10,000 in mid June (when article was published), there's been a lot of very intensive fighting since then, figure surely a lot higher now. I also suspect it was higher than 10,000 back then (Ukraine has vastly inflated number of Russian dead since the start, logically it would downplay its own losses too, though obviously not to the degree Russia does)

And is there any even remotely accurate figure for official dead and missing Ukrainian non combatants, or amidst all refugees as well it's impossible to even guess? The occasional official numbers I've seen strike me as implausibly low given the apocalyptic scenes

Satellite images from Crimea

Aftermath of strike in Crimea