I do like that you think the Austrians are providing unbiased analysis.
The reality is that nobody, including your Austrian chum, has accurate loss estimates on either side and the only real conclusions you can draw are gleaned from territory held and OSINT.
Ukraine claiming that there were 9 aircraft destroyed in the attack.
August 10 — Russia's war against Ukraine — online Suspilne
It seems to have been a special forces operation. On the news just now.
Also
A month old! Everything changed when the HIMARs arrived…Have you forgotten this was a 3 day operation?
I too would like to know where this 100,000 KIA figure is coming from because if that is true then Ukraine are loosing troops on nearly a 3:1 ratio against what Russia is loosing.
I seen some Russian propaganda stating they have found Ukrainian documents showing estimates of losses to something like this, and didn't pay too much heed to it much like I dont with any other Russian propaganda I see.
This is the video he's talking about.
One correction, a Ukraine general admitted to sustaining 100k losses back in June. A casualty is a soldier who is either dead or wounded, and my guess is that 100k number includes missing/captured. So Ukraine hasn't actually lost 100k dead, the number is still terrible.
Secondly, two months have passed since then, so the Ukrainian casualty rate is going to be a lot higher since the 100k won't include many casualties sustained during heavy fighting for Severodonetsk. What is the most up to date casualty number for Ukraine now? 120k, 130k, 140k? Those figures don't seem unreasonable.
On the otherhand, the Pentagon came out yesterday and gave their assessment of Russian casualties running at 80k. American intelligence has shown to be top notch, so I am inclined to take the number at face value.
The situation for Ukraine looks really grim to me.
Thanks. please let us know when there's an updated analysis.
the kerch strait bridge might just be in range if the below is anything to go by
Fire at oil depot in Yeisk, Kuban
One correction, a Ukraine general admitted to sustaining 100k losses back in June
No he didn't, as far as I can tell its a completely made up number.
This is the article the Austrian video is referencing and it is very poorly summarised in the video:
I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.
So if we take these figures at face value it means that Ukraine is suffering far greater casualties than Russia when it is Ukraine mostly defending ground. This would not be a good sign for Ukraine at all if this was the case.
There's no way 100k Ukrainian soldiers could have been killed or injured in June. That wouldn't tally at all with what we've heard about the war's progression - the fighting was effectively a stalemate that month, with very little real movement along the front.
I assume people mean in total (back in June means when it was claimed, not that it was just for that month), but I'm not finding anything to support that either.
Who can possibly know the number of casualties on either side: killed, wounded or missing/ fled. The Ukrainians or Russians likely wouldn't know. So you'd have to think that any estimates from outside are just that and could all be part of propaganda fed from either side.
If it's for the entire war, it sounds rather much on the high side (you could certainly imagine it might be true of the attacking forces, the Russians).
From the briefing, you do get that impression. However, there are several large caveats with that. For starters, it's the age of the video. It's over a month old at this point and that is an eternity in the current war. It does not take into consideration the ongoing HIMARS and M270 rollout, and neither does it take into consideration the recent delivery of MARS-II MLRS and additional Pzh-2000 from Germany and the Netherlands, which now allows Ukraine to field a full artillery battalion just out of the MARS-II and Pzh-2000 vehicles. Also, Colonel Reisner is not going to be publicly disclosing any information that Austria may have acquired through clandestine means.
It also looks now as if Ukraine was able to pull a surprising number of units out of Severodonetsk and conduct an effective retreat from Lysychansk without sacrificing large numbers of troops, which speaks to the skill of the battlefield commanders. A coordinated retreat in the middle of battle is pretty much the most complex maneuver that a battlefield commander can be faced with. Whilst losses are still likely going to be high, I do not assess the situation to be as grim as it may appear to be from this video.
There's also the resupply issue. Granted, Russia has massive equipment reserves that they can pull from. But the quality of that equipment is questionable in many cases, and includes T-64s and even some T-60s, tanks from the 1960s. There has also been an increase in the number of documented equipment malfunctions on the Russian side, from missiles that veer off course almost immediately after launch, to artillery guns bursting and other failures, indicating storage and/or maintenance issues. Also, Russia is, according to numerous reports, increasingly reliant on mercenary groups like Wagner, and has recently resorted to recruiting from jails, as well as continuing to bring in reserve units from every corner of Russia except the heartland. Many of these are conscript units without much in the way of military training, whilst others are made up of retirement age veterans pulled back into service. It says quite a bit that Russia hasn't been able to make much progress in breaching the Slovyansk-Bakhmut defensive line despite their success in the Battle for Donbas.
Russia has also not been able to assert air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force is still operating at what seems to be close to its pre-war strength, conducting strikes, combat air patrols and other similar missions. Colonel Reisner is correct in pointing out the number of missiles that have so far been launched at Ukraine. However, many of these were launched from bombers that were still in Russian or Belorussian airspace at the time of launch. There's no indication that the Russian Air Force has been able or willing to conduct operations beyond the immediate front lines or in the Ukrainian rear. Given the demonstrated blatant disregard for civilian casualties, we should have seen massed attacks with free-fall bombs at this stage, but there's nothing.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to be able to cycle units back from the front line for reinforcement, R&R and passing their experience on to new units being stood up, giving even newly formed reserve units a qualitative edge over their Russian counterparts. Ukraine also continues to receive high-quality equipment from its western allies, with the number of armored vehicles, MRAPs, MRLS & HIMARS systems seemingly increasing on a weekly basis, whilst highly advanced systems such as NASAMS and IRIS-T SLM are in the pipeline. Ukraine has also proven very adept at converting commercially available UAVs into weapons systems, with multicopters of all shapes and sizes being effectively used as ultra-compact UCAVs. Morale continues to be seemingly high across the armed forces as well.
Ukraine also appears to have the edge in intelligence. A frequent talking point on this thread is the presence of NATO EW, ELINT and SIGINT assets right outside Ukrainian airspace, whether that's US EP-3 "Aries" or Global Hawk, Royal Air Force Airseeker R.1, Italian or Swedish assets. It is safe to assume that the information gathered by these systems, as well as that gathered by NATO orbital and HUMINT assets, flows straight into Ukrainian high command, after being sanitised, of course. Ukraine itself appears to be dominating in the electronic battlespace, a fact helped by the fact that the Russian forces still seem to have to rely on mobile phones and commercially available radios for a lot of their tactical communication.
It'll be interesting to see how Colonel Reisner's next briefing is going to look like. I do like that he takes a somewhat "dimmer" approach than many posters on here, me included, as that gives a much needed reality check. However, given how fast things are evolving in the combat area, a lot can happen in a month.
The video is not only a month old but in it he constantly refers back to events two weeks before the video was released
Russia made no gains in a month
With all the furore of events happening in Crimea yesterday, this little bit of news didn't make as much headlines.
I do wonder if their is any major offensive to take back Kherson, how much locals and partisans may be able to help and effect the outcome.
Thanks for that great listen and watch.
I would imagine that if it was special forces on a specific mission, then they'd have known exactly where to place their explosives to get the most...er...bang for their bomb.
If it is claimed by Ukraine it is rather cheeky but a very strong reminder to Russia that nowhere is safe.
Well, to be fair, the Ukrainians are operating in their own backyard. They probably had detailed plans of the base from the time it was one of theirs, as well as the best satellite images that NATO could provide. Plus, operational security doesn't seem to have been particularly tight at the base, those ammo dumps were mostly out in the open and it looks like nearby aircraft were fueled and armed in preparation for upcoming sorties.
This is a handy yoke
This is how it happens
Russian media showed the aftermath of precise Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on the Kakhovka Dam, Kherson Oblast - and revealed destroyed Russian military equipment placed there, including a valuable R-439-MD2 satcom vehicle and 5 KAMAZ-based vehicles
Compare the damage to Yelenokova attack the Russian claim came from Ukrainan HiMars
Possibly another bridge under attack,but not confirmed yet
Chongar bridge Crimea/Kherson
Ukrainians under constant artillery attack,but doesnt want to become Kremlins slaves
Whether the "Kherson offensive" of the Ukrainian troops will come now remains to be seen. Recently, some Ukrainian representatives of all people declared that they did not actually have enough capacity for this and that the offensive could only start in spring 2023.
even if the figures are true, they are BROADLY similar. So, “mighty” Russia is losing 10s of thousands of soldiers against a well armed, but still the poorest country in aEutooe.
The Ukrainians HAVE to fight. It’s potentially die fighting or be raped, watch your mother and children raped … and then die.
I don’t see Ukraine surrendering to the human Orcs. Fuk all those that call for Ukrainian capitulation.
Everything is relative, to my eye it’s very grim for the Ivans.
Fight or become extinct.
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