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Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Eric Schmitt won the GOP candidature for the Senate race as the GOP favourite & Trump buddy over the disgraced Eric Greitens. He'll face a democrat and an independent later this year.

    One item Kansas state [the next-door state] voters were to decide on is an [Value Them Both] amendment to change the state constitution and overturn a state supreme court 2019 ruling allowing abortion in the state. The amendment was lost by an approx 20% majority vote and abortion rights were preserved in the state constitution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭amandstu


    So Trump endorsed candidates did well in the primaries?

    Is that good news or bad for the Dems in a purely upcoming electoral sense ,would you say?


    Is the current seeming anti abortion- ban sentiment likely to have a big part to play?


    Might it jeopardise a GOP takeover of the Houses?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Bit of a mixed bag really.

    Some of the people winning the GOP primaries are pretty out there especially in Arizona, which may be good news for the Democrats in November but maybe a bit early.

    Not sure of the Mid-term significance of the Kansas abortion legislation result though.

    Clearly quite a few GOP voters voted against the bill thereby protecting Abortion rights , but very hard to know if that translates to any shift in voting intentions for November.

    One good thing though would appear to be the turn-out levels - They got far more votes cast for this issue in Kansas than they expected and increased turnout is good for the Democrats as a general rule.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    In Missouri at least, there's a chance that Trump may have been a factor in the nomination as Eric Schmitt seems to believe in Trump and the GOP MAGA.

    I cant answer Q2 - is it good or bad news for the Dems - as it's unclear [for now] who will control the senate and house candidates for the GOP later this year or whether sanity will return to the GOP from it's present state of un-normality.

    YES: The anti-abortion people will push and threaten candidates and the party [which says it likes righteous people] to get their way of blocking other people having abortion rights set in law.

    Ref abortion, it may that those mostly concerned [females] with the loss of rights in the state constitutions may have woke-n up and decided to use their votes to their advantage and not to the advantage of people who want to deprive people of their rights in law.

    Hopefully so. If women and their friends seriously believe in the right to abortion [and other rights OK'd by USSC mandate to the present] being written into/under State or other law have really woke up to what the GOP fellow-kind plan to deprive them of in the near future, they will turn out en masse on voting day and get their retaliation in first, having learned to use their vote for themselves and not for a freeloader like Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭amandstu


    I realize I am going a bit off topic but can any State organize a referendum along the lines of Kansas so as to validate the majority who oppose any outright (or quasi outright) ban on abortion?


    And can they hold a referendum as to cruel and unusual punishments for those Supreme Court Judges who brought about this mess?/sarc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,291 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Schmidt getting the nomination is good news for the GOP as the alternative Eric Greitens was very dodgy, stories of domestic abuse and the likes of Hawley came out strongly against him. Schmidt is MAGA but not as corny as some of the bootlickers and tbf in MO its not a bad play.

    I seen a tweet the other day saying their are 3 parties in Kansas, the dems, social conservatives, and pro choice conservatives.

    I don't expect all those voted no last night to vote Dem but its a wake up call for the GOP that they are going to have stare down the noisy activists because when it comes to abortion the harsher you go unless its a really red state you are in bother.

    Arizona was a weird one for the GOP, a very weak candidate for governor Lake won but the turnout was really good. Swings and roundabouts.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Short answer is yes , but the requirements to get one on the ballot varies from place to place.

    In Kansas the amendment (to remove Abortion rights) only got on the ballot because the GOP had super majorities in both State houses so they were able to push it through.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭amandstu


    So does it look like only a very few States will be able to "succeed" where Kansas failed-and can the pro-choice movement live with such a States-wide result?


    Would that take the heat out of the issue except in those very few States?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Well.. The problem is that a lot of States already have really restrictive laws on their books which were only being held in check by Roe vs. Wade at the Federal level so now that's gone the restrictions are live and in place.

    Kansas was slightly unique in that it had explicit protections for Abortion rights in the State constitution which the GOP tried (and resoundingly failed) to overturn. Not sure how many other States have that in their constitutions or if a GOP controlled legislature would even try to change the constitution of their State , especially now that they've seen the result in Kansas.

    I think the next big challenge legally speaking will be if a State tries to prosecute someone for going to another State for Abortion services.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,333 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Not possible to organize a referendum with enough signatures to overturn some egregious restrictions on abortion ? (in any State blue or red )



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    A quick google gives this link , which lists out the process for a Constitutional amendment in each State.

    A quick read would suggest that most seem to have a process for a voter driven request for a Constitutional amendment , but some don't.

    For example in Arkansas you have this

    To successfully qualify a constitutional amendment for the ballot through an initiative petition, signatures from registered voters equal to 10 percent of the votes cast in the last gubernatorial election must be collected. From 2008 through 2018, this signature requirement ranged between 77,468 and 84,859 signatures.

    Like everything in the US , it varies massively State by State and some States have incredibly convoluted and complex processes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    I'd hazard a guess that states minded to ban the provision of abortion services at state and private medical service level will have sat up on notice of the Kansas amendment failure and introduce catch-22 clauses for the moment when anyone tries to move against a state ban on abortion.

    It's worth recalling that the move to successfully block the provision of abortion services didn't start with the present USSC bench but with state authorities giving new health and safety building requirements to long existing clinics to successfully force closure of the clinics in the past 4 or so years.



  • Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Good to see the outcome of the Alex Jones case, and what will appear if the data is handed over to the Jan 6th investigation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Unfortunately he saw the train coming down the tracks and put his company into administration last week in an apparent attempt to avoid paying restitution to both his living and dead victims. If he or his lawyer used his public statements as defence testimony while knowing it to be false, it'd be good if years in jail is the result.



  • Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Done as a potential way to delay other trials.

    The data that his lawyer accidentally handed over may have left him open to investigation about that too.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,482 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Is that not fraudulent? If he had the money to pay the compensation, then trying to avoid it would, I think, be contested.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    He tried it already using the "bankruptcy" of another of his shell companies to try and get out of paying - Not sure if it was this case or the one in New England.

    But that was shot down instantly by the courts , I'd expect the same to happen here.

    He's also going to get hit with the punitive damages later today as well - Which can be up to 10 times the compensatory amount - So he could get hit for up to $40m on top.

    His complete and utter destruction would be no more than he deserves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Anyone online today from the US side of the Atlantic to say if this is still in play or just a Silly Season story? I'm reading two articles in the NYT concerning Wisconsin that: A. Wisconsin GOP voters want the 2020 election result [presumably from that state] decertified so that Trump can be declared to be [still] the President AND that the only reason it hasn't happened is that Wisconsin's GOP speaker of the house, Robin Vos, doesn't want to do so. It's possible that the Vos part of the storyline is dated but some of Wisconsin's GOP state legislature members are still pushing for it to happen.

    One other report in the NYT is that 4 GOP state legislatures are still using electoral map that their own state supreme courts declared were illegal gerrymandering maps. According to the report, this continued usage is down to a shift in electoral law philosophy at the USSC giving the GOP an electoral advantage in Nov 2022. The NYT is on pay for use basis so I don't know the names of the 4 states.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    The FBI executed a search warrant at Trump's Mar-A-Lago residence yesterday. It's factual that the FBI and a prosecutor would have to give reasonable evidence to a federal judge to get the search warrant, especially when it came to whom the warrant concerned. Trump, who was not at home, has said they broke into his safe at his residence, calls it political persecution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,261 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Of course he does. That's what people with something to hide usually say.

    Merrick Garland has been criticised for many months for perceived inaction. In fact, during all that time, he may have been putting together a highly focused, highly effective and leak free investigation, which is feeding the Jan 6th Cmttee evidence into the mix.

    And if the time has arrived to begin executing search warrants and making arrests, with a view to federal charges of the utmost seriousness, there should be quite a few Trump acolytes filling their pants tonight, including his family.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The level of "Probable cause" that they would have been expected to show to get a warrant to search the home of a former President would have to be off the charts.

    Someone is in very very deep trouble.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    And one would speculate Trump is exactly the kind of idiot who'd keep his dirty laundry in a safe; probably a file marked Top Secret.

    As said already, you don't get a warrant to search the home of an ex-President on a whim. Suddenly things have become very serious - let's see how far Fox News and the GOP apparatus go to bat for Trump.



  • Posts: 9,106 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Is this all about Trump taking confidential documents from the White House and not surrendering them back to the national archives? Is it about him hiding documents that may be in some way incriminating to him?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,136 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Classified documents. According to a CNN reporter, officials were in the house a number of weeks ago and Trumps lawyers showed them where the documents were kept.

    The officials subsequently sent a letter requesting that better security be provided for the documents.

    So it would appear that probable cause was more than met.

    Why they required a search warrant rather than Trump simply handing them over is a question.

    But they didn't do this lightly, the FBI and anyone connected with this, would be well aware of the potential backlash so it appears that this action would be a last resort.

    Why would Trump continue to hold onto classified documents when he has been informed it was illegal and the US wanted them back ? What did he expect to gain from holding onto them?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    All the reports seem to suggest it's connected to the confidential paper-work that Trump took to Mar-a-Lago from the White house.

    That in and of itself is a crime , but it's really really hard to see them going after him like this for taking random paperwork so you'd have to assume that the papers he has held on to are something that would be dangerous to him if made public.

    All in all though , this is clearly a very serious escalation of the proceedings against Trump.



  • Posts: 9,106 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I hope a prosecution is the outcome- otherwise this will be seen as a witch hunt just to discredit Trump- I do hope it’s not just an aimless search based on a technicality of law. And the Biden camp better not be anywhere near this - if it’s found to be anything other than an objective and totally independent investigation free from political interference, then the democrats have handed the next election to the republicans



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,036 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail



    Biden only found out after it had been tweeted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,343 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Re your ?,s in your last para, the mindset of a "privileged" person used to thinking "its all mine and no one else's", then, in his dotage, gifted with the presidency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Inserts 'why not both' meme.


    Seriously though, trump is keeping those documents because they're valuable to him (Can't exactly see him being a hoarder). Whether that is in financial or political currency or both, remains to be seen



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I know that in the original "15 Boxes" there were a number of gifts that had been given to him by foreign leaders which are not of course "his" but belong to the US and as such they weren't his to take home.

    But I highly doubt that the raid is because of some expensive Crystal vase or whatever.

    Whatever stuff Trump has held on to at this stage is obviously criminally damaging to him or someone near to him (e.g. Trump keeping them for leverage over someone).



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