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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    they weren't competing against the FF/FG Vulture Funds or the influx of a million new irish from the EU and beyond - different times

    at this stage the government must be hoping a generation of irish youth (potential SF voters) emigrate in the next 2 years before the next election ..



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You think things were better in the 80’s when your two couples bought their homes? there was mass unemployment, emigration, social unrest, Charlie Haughey going on TV telling us we were living beyond our means? They could buy houses because they were lucky enough to have jobs, at that time bank jobs were “jobs for life” so they had a much better chance to getting a mortgage/buying a home.

    You seem to understand why people couldn’t buy when prices were rock bottom during a recession when there was unemployment, lower wages, lack of credit, but unable to understand why people can’t buy when there is full employment, a good percentage have high wages/savings and access to credit. Why is that?



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    On the contrary, putting SF in and letting them see that it is easy to make populist promises and difficult to deliver, may allow the two main parties to regroup.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭yagan


    Meeting the housing shortage is meaningless if those units are being allowed to be hoovered up by rent farming funds. Just because it's a similar situation in many markets around the world doesn't validate the situation. It shows that international funds being allowed to rent farm has been normalised as conventional wisdom, despite these funds adding nothing to the economy.

    A lot of the developments of the last five years didn't even make it to the open market, they were sold directly to rent farming funds. The maddening thing about this situation is that its the elderly cohort whose pension funds outbid the essential workers needed for the aging population.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    You need a functioning rental market as well, some people are transient here for a few years and gone it wouldn't make sense for them to buy. Trying to put rules in place now will cause a lot of moral hazards for people who bought their house over the years and I cant see it happening while homeowners numbers are greater than non home owners. The market should just have all supports taken away and let it find its own equilibrium along with social housing being built on a much wider scale for those who cant afford to buy currently.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    Our current situation is not an accident. It is by design. Whether deliberate design or sheer ignorance is unimportant. It is a direct result of decisions made by our government.

    Of course I understand why people cannot afford a home, that's precisely what we're talking about! House ownership is increasingly being limited to a certain subset of society, the reasons for this are clear. But you don't look at an outcome and say 'well that's the way it is, oh well', you look at the root cause. And some of us hold contention with how we got to this point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭yagan


    You've miss my point entirely, people moved to Ireland with the intention of building a life, but once they realise that that life isn't affordable they start treating Ireland as a career layover and eventually move on. Now the situation has gotten worse in that people are passing on jobs here because the word is out that it's unaffordable. Why bother with Ireland when they can advance their career where they build equity too.

    In the Bertie years personal borrowing drove house prices, now it's domestic and foreign investor funds. Restricting these funds from the market won't affect supply as wage homemakers are already being overbid. The current goverments core voters are home owners so they don't appreciate the plight of renters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    So did you ask every single person who came to live in Ireland are they intending on staying here? I know I went to Oz for a year earned more cash and had a great lifestyle and came back with enough cash for a deposit in Ireland but I never intended on staying over there indefinitely. I am pretty sure some see Ireland as a way to make a lot of cash and head home sure it is common place in my company we had Polish, Lithuanian, Brazilian and Turkish workers for a number of years and making enough cash to go back home and have a decent lump sum for a house back home. So we do need rentals.

    as I pointed out a lot of first world countries are the same with regards to being unaffordable such as US- New York, France-Paris, England-London and that list goes on and on that is how it has gone globally areas where there is a lot of demand for will always be out of reach for the average worker on the average wage..


    I do agree with restricting REITS or they should be taxed at 51% like our workers here and that money used to build social houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,931 ✭✭✭yagan


    Where did I say we don't need rentals?

    We know from revenue that there's 70.000 registered units unused, reportedly large chunks of the silicon docks accommodation is sitting unlet. What have a housing minister who admits that he doesn't know how many units delivered are been hoovered up by rent farmers, and of that stock he doesn't have the means to gauge how much is withheld from the market for asset appreciation.

    The only true picture is the five yearly census.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And do you bear any responsibility for helping yourself out of it?

    There are a multitude of reasons why we have arrived at this point, ignorance is thinking they are all attributable to bad policies by a Government. It is to ignore the part played by the success of our economy in providing jobs, attracting inward migration, having savings that allow for purchases etc.

    The irony may be lost on you, but one of the reasons there are so many bidders with higher financial resources pushing up the price of property, is because for some sectors there are fantastic job opportunities here which have drastically reduced the need to emigrate. Work from home now means that those highly paid people can move out of Dublin, pushing up the prices in rural areas. Is that bad policy making, to have a thriving tech/pharma sector and allow people to wfh? Of course not. Can you build houses at the rate jobs are created? Also, of course not.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Could they be purchased on a job bridge scheme, terms of employment far inferior to there peers, temporary contracts, 0 hours contracts etc.

    These were the people chosen to pay the most for the sins of the state that they had no hand act or part in



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I think it might be the leaders of said country that need to wake up, the population are paying for the last bust, they have an ink link to the potential damage.



  • Posts: 577 ✭✭✭ Musa Unkempt Tech


    The housing system is broken. Even the apartments built during the celtic tiger are a fire risk. So even if you spend ridiculous sums of money, your not getting value for it.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Again, a very simplistic way of looking at the current problem. Successive Governments have done well to lift Ireland out of recession and provide conditions for full employment and inward investment leading to good, high paying jobs. There were many reasons for the "last bust", some not under the control of our Government, unless you want to blame them for a global economic collapse. One of the largest contributing factors domestically, and something the Government did have to take responsibility for, was the lack of regulation in the building sector and financial markets which meant people borrowed far beyond their means to invest in rapidly built, shiite properties. When the recession came, too much debt, to many houses. That has now been corrected making it more difficult to over borrow, and building regs have been improved. The fact that there are so many people who have well paying jobs which allows them to borrow more as a result of having a higher wage for the mortgage multiplier cap, and houses are more expensive to build because of the regs, is hardly an indication of poor policy decisions, unless of course you think people should be able to borrow without a ceiling. That of course would risk repeating the mistakes of the Celtic tiger years.

    The fact is that some sectors of society, particularly those who went into the tech/financial/pharma/trades fields are doing very well at the moment, high wages, high capacity to borrow are competing with people in average paying jobs, they no longer need to emigrate, so they are competing with you for the limited stock of properties available. Will SF change that? No, and if they try to, they risk killing the golden goose which has driven our economy forward and helped us out of recession. And if you think that is a price worth paying, then consider that the MNC's alone put over €16bn into our economy in direct payroll, the benefit of that is most assuredly felt by those shops, mechanics, pubs, restaurants, etc, jobs that lower paid workers rely on, not to mention the tax take from their wages which pay to run the PS/CS services.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Were we only selling our own population short after emigration or was it always an ongoing issue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Well historically or up until the the naughties we exported workers or at least we had more people leaving than coming in this has really shifted around and more people are now coming to live in Ireland than leaving so no its very new for Ireland now weather thats people coming in via MNCs for jobs it means others are paying more tax to protect corpo taxes or welfare tourists coming for our really high welfare rates, this also has to be paid for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    What advice would you give to someone who is mentally disabled?



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’m not sure what you are asking here, is it for yourself or someone else?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    In the context of housing, a mentally disabled person who wants independent in Ireland.

    What advice would you give them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Your concern for the sustainability of the economy is admirable.

    The 2 key drivers of same were corporation tax changes and "free" third level education. The corpo tax is coming under increased international pressure and free third level is being diluted by extortionate rents on below standard accomodation and creeping registration fees.

    Affordable housing would be a game changer for the economy similar to corporation taxes and could be a revenue gereator for the state as opposed to a large and growing liability. It would allow us to address our growing national debt

    Separately government have been fighting and circumventing prudent financial regulation and complicit in poor and costly building regulations



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  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I’m afraid I still don’t understand what that has to do with this thread, or the context in which you are asking it. Would that not be better directed toward social services or the HSE? Certainly if the State is going to provide accommodation, then that is another example of how the State is competing with working people trying to buy a home, but I don’t see how they could be criticised for that. Do you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Your insufferable idea is that if everyone was savvy like you and your kids they'd emigrate and come back with a deposit.

    The fact you cannot comprehend my point proves my point. Your view is among the most myopic, smug, solipsistic and selfish I have ever come across on boards.



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    At the risk of blunting your point, we had both third level fees, and accommodation fees. “Free” third level came in after I left college. So adding those two together probably brought students a fair way toward the adjusted cost of accommodation today.

    Recent history has shown that large property projects overseen by the Government have been calamitous . Asking the Government to become the biggest residential landlord in the State, and expecting the income to cover costs can only be seen as an impending and ongoing disaster. Do you see a time when he State would routinely evict a non paying or errant tenant in affordable housing? Or maybe you think the Government should become the States largest property developer and sell the houses? If you expect profit which reduces our national debt, then the properties must be sold at a price higher than the build cost. If private developers say they struggle to do that, how the fuuck do you expect the Government to, after they pay those private contractors to build them?



  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What point are you making about mentally disabled people, and what has it got to do with this thread on the property market? Are you saying they cannot afford to buy, or that the State should be providing it?

    If you want an answer, at least ask a question.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The argument here is predictably reductive, insinuating that making housing affordable is easy, and the government are just not doing it cause they don't want to. This is complete and utter rubbish.

    The fact that is continually overlooked here, where heads suddenly find their way into the sand as fast as possible, is that it's not easy at all and that no matter what the government do there is unwanted negative consequences (though no doubt no matter what they do, it will be wrong, as that appears to be your default position on literally everything).

    There is a realistic max housing output this country can achieve, we're probably at it. It is a zero-sum game. This notion that the government can just decide that now housing will be cheap, and there'll be no consequences for this, is genuinely stupid. The idea that they can just magic up a bunch of housing, and sell it cheap, and there be no consequences for it is fairy tale magic money tree stuff.

    If you want to build more social / affordable housing, then you need to divert resources to do it, and so other sectors of the market will reduce their output. I will give you one guess what this does to prices.

    The notion that house prices are just the fault of the government is playground stuff. Nobody is willing to look at the uncomfortable fact that the market is the market, the government doesn't run the market, they're just another player in it, and they do not have a magic wand to solve all the problems with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    We need to look at ways to increase the output (supply) or to cut the number of people looking to buy and rent houses in the country (demand)

    Prices will naturally adjust accordingly

    But yet still while housing estates don't even come to market as they are bought as one piece by vulture funds. Funds that previous governments went out of their way to entice I to the country by offering tax breaks and

    Max output is one thing- who is buying what is built is the other



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,011 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    It's not 'taboo' - it's banned outright. Read the warnings in post 1 as the thread title tells you to. Do not reply to moderation instructions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,388 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Not all the people renting were on jobbridge, zero hour or temporary contracts etc. Most made choice's. Even now you could buy houses for sub 150k within travelling distance of most cities except Dublin. But people choose not to make those choices.

    Traditionally if you lived in Dublin you never needed to emigrate or migrate to elsewhere. This was not a choice in the rest of the country especially in smaller urban and rural areas. Therefore people accept this reality easier. If they need to move for work or fora place to buy a house they make this choice.

    People make choices even not making a decision is a choice.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭bobbysands81


    Let FF and FG regroup? What would change? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again…



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  • Posts: 14,769 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think that would be their viewpoint, let SF in there, show everyone that all these promises they are making are hopelessly undeliverable, and regroup in opposition.

    Like you I think, none of the parties will be able to solve the housing crisis as many of the contributing factors are outside their control.



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