Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

1163416351637163916403690

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    All of this talk of supposed justification for Russia's invasion ignores that senior members of Putin's cabinet were unaware until the very last moment he intended invading all of Ukraine. They assumed it would be a very limited operation in the Donbas and that the rest of Ukraine would be completely untouched (meaning even they didn't buy the guff of the dictator and the Putin bots that war against all of Ukraine was justified).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It doesn't matter that they won't be giving in, it just means that there will be more Russian bodies on the back of flatbeds scuttling back across the border to be recieved by their grieving mothers. Russia will lose the war. The die is cast and it's just a matter of when, not if.

    Don't worry, I'll be tagging you in this thread when the day comes. I hope you'll still be around.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    At one point they didn't even want ukraine to be part of the Minsk agreements they Putin only wanted to negotiate with the Germans, french and his buddy in Belarus,as if even back then Ukraine didn't actually exist



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭EOQRTL


    No idea what tagging is or why you'd be doing it. You seem to be under the impression i want Russia to win the war is that the point you are attempting to make?



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Moronic analysis. For one, you expect us to believe Ukraine puts flowers into barrels of Russian guns Putin will be like ‘oh, you guys LOL’ and go home?

    Putin is an out of control psychopath that only understands violence.

    And you don’t understand how sanctions work if you think it’s not getting progressively worse for Russia/Russians.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    It'll be a friendly reminder of your post. Don't be perturbed by it. I'll just be giving you a poke to remind you of the anchor you threw down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    Even before Minsk the Russians had Yanukovych and his agents in power and they destabilized Ukraine. Orange Revolution - Wikipedia

    And then there is this; Opinion | The Speech In Which Putin Told Us Who He Was - POLITICO

    Here is the speech DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf (muni.cz)

    And this is a reiteration of the substance of the speech


    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    "Russia's ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year" according to CBS news.

    The rouble recently hit a new high against the US dollar meanwhile the Euro fell to parity against the dollar.

    The citizens of Europe are feeling the sanctions more than Russia thanks to commodity prices.

    Surely the economic actuons taken against Russia must be a record for the most self hurting, ineffective and counter productive sanctions of all time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    No. There was a small few sources who alleged Russia had not the resources to wage war, and another handful who claimed putin was at deaths door. Don't try claim it was a general consensus.

    Russia may not give in, but they are definitely not in the position they claim to be. They are being largely held by a less well armed adversary. The only reason they are still in this fight is the reluctance of western nations to provide the means for Ukraine to win, as opposed to defend themselves.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Posts: 4,503 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Does anyone share a growing sense of unease about political changes happening currently in the UK in the form of the Conservative leadership change, but more importantly around the US Midterm elections?

    Particularly regarding the US, should the Republicans claim victory in the Midterms, what can Biden do for Ukraine if he hasn't Republican support?

    I've always maintained that Ukraine will win this war, with Western support. They may eventually win it without, but I think that's a timescale of decades.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The rouble is only strong because imports to Russia have fallen off a cliff. That's not the sign of a healthy economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The rouble is a potemkin currency now managed for political ends. It's the North Korean won writ large.

    What are Russians going to buy with their magic mega stronk rouble? Not Audis or Fords. Lada Grantas, while they can. How will Lada access the requisite steel from Japan or South Korea to fulfill this demand? They can't because they won't sell to the Russians (Russian steel is sh*t by the way, it's the reason why most of their tank fleet is out of action - as they couldn't get the high-end steel from abroad after 2014).

    How will Russian airlines keep their planes in the air with critical parts? Very stronk rouble! Too bad Pratt and Whitney and Rolls Royce ain't doing business with them.

    If you take the rouble as a good sign for the Russian economy, you need to hit the textbooks. It's a disaster and entirely synthetic. No currency trader wants roubles, becuase what are they going to do with it? Margin trading the currency is dead. It has no international utility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    There seems to be a substantial group of Irish people that think like this and its crazy that many of these people would condemn, bash and wont believe anything the US says but will parrot word by word anything that comes out of the Kremlin even after all the blatant lies and propaganda it puts out.

    So first of all Russia invaded Ukrainian territory by anexing Crimea and then more or less invaded the eastern regions by stirring up trouble and sending in unofficial army personnel to help them. We seen the effect of this when the airliner was shot down. This then set the president for the trouble that followed for years after that.

    Second, their was never any official request from Ukraine to join NATO even though they did express a desire to (and who would have blamed them after previous events).

    As others have said, the NATO thing is a red herring anyway, when has NATO ever attacked Russian territory? It would never happen due to the risk of nuclear war and Russia full well knows this.

    Thirdly, how was the initial invasion just supposed to be to protect the Donbas? when from day one they went full on to try and take Kiev and other areas in Ukraine?

    And only then that was drawn back due to the comple balls they made of that attempt.

    Fourthly, so you think after all that Russia has inflicted on their nation they should just roll over, disarm and let Russia make it another proxy state like Belarus? It seems the people of Ukraine dont want to accept that and they have done a damn good job of stopping it so far, even though they have now lost more territory in the east.

    I just hope that the west and NATO has the will to keep standing by them to keep the fight for their freedom from Russia for as long as it takes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Guess who is using the rouble?

    European gas companies are buying gas from Russia with it.


    Remember it was all over the news about Russia demanding that countries and companies must pay in roubles. Then suddenly it disappeared from the news.

    Europe caved and complied



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    Jeffrey Frankel from Havard disagrees with you

    "Normally, a country facing international sanctions and a major military conflict would see investors fleeing and a steady outflow of capital, causing its currency to drop. But Russia's unusually aggressive measures to keep money from leaving the country, in combination with a dramatic rise in fossil-fuel prices, are working to create demand for the ruble and pushing up its value.  

    The ruble's resiliency means that Russia is partly insulated from the punishing economic penalties imposed by Western nations after its invasion of Ukraine"

    Putin has Europe over a barrel with commodities. Europe is punishing its own citizens. Worst sanctions ever!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    And that's about the size of it. International "demand" for roubles ends there. And it's entirely synthetic "demand" generated by the Kremlin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    What charts? The rouble can go to the moon, it's precisely useless outside of discreet energy transactions. It's the North Korean won. Imports into Russia have collapsed. No one wants to hold roubles and the only transacting happens with currency swops in Russian banks with a couple of dozen European energy countries done at gunpoint.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,891 ✭✭✭Homelander


    I love how you neglected to quote the rest of that exact article because the rest of it doesn't agree with the wafer thin narrative of Russia's mighty economy you're trying to push.

    The ruble's rally has created some problems for Russia's central bank, which has taken steps to bring its currency closer to historic levels, including loosening capital controls and lowering interest rates.


    A strong currency doesn't mean Russia is immune to economic pain, however. Although the ruble's bounceback and the strength of Russia's oil exports have temporarily cushioned its economy from sanctions, the effect is likely to be short-term, experts say. 


    Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, noted that Russian oil is selling for $35 per barrel less than Brent crude, the international benchmark, reflecting the discount buyers demand for doing business with the nation.


    "Nobody today would buy Russian oil at $120 a barrel. And in fact there are plenty of energy buyers who will not buy Russian oil at any price today, whether because of sanctions or because of reputational risk," he said. "The Russian economy is losing approximately $200 million dollars a day — or $70 billion on an annual basis — as a direct result of the war."


    What's more, European nations have vowed to cut their imports of Russian gas by two-thirds this year — a potentially crippling blow given Russia's dependence on energy exports.


    One sign the Russian economy remains under severe pressure is that inflation in Russia is more than double the rate in the U.S. That's creating pressure for Russians to move their money out of the country, said Frankel of the Harvard Kennedy School.


    "The temptation to get assets out of Russia, for Russian citizens to find a way around the controls ... will grow, especially with the inflation rate now as high as it has shot up," he said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    And the Euro chart?


    Nothing is stopping Russia buying USD or any other currency through backdoor channels. It can effectively convert its own currency ( at record rates) and at the same time manipulate the value for increased competitiveness.

    There is constant criticism of China as it manipulates its own currency to accommodate cheap exports

    Look at the ECB just yesterday- developing a program to facilitate "infinite " bond buying to bail out the likes of Italy.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Your academic explained to you how the notional value of the rouble skyrocketed in-country, he didn't spoonfeed you the implications of it.

    The rouble went up because imports collapsed, and for the middle class Russian, holding dollars may as well have been holding Pokemon cards, becuase they can't transact for anything because of sanctions. Try to pay for a house in London with roubles, you can't. Try to pay in dollars, euro or sterling, you can't. Between that and capital controls, the rouble has been fenced off from the rest of the world. Holders of foreign currency in dollar or euro accounts have been forced into holding roubles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    And who outside Russia would be arsed buying these roubles with it's zero utility? And to what end? And how are they magically doing so having been cut off from the Swift system? Think about this for a second would you

    The only transacting between the developed world and Russia done in roubles is in Russian banks with a limited amount of energy companies, who by political fiat are exchanging freely traded currencies like the euro and dollar at gunpoint.

    It's the North Korean won with a ushanka hat on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    The rouble value is backed by the global and especially European requirement for fossil fuels. This won't be changing any time soon.

    End



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I'll give you a little thought experiment, I drop by your house tommorow with a gearbag full of roubles. What are you going to do with it?

    I hope don't have your heart set on a new Playstation or a holiday anywhere but Omsk, because the gearbag full of cash may as well be monopoly money.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79 ✭✭RoundCube


    It's strongest because the import is over but export is doing mostly fine. There is lot less demand for currencies on MOEX. Trading volumes are about 10% of pre-war period. Also it's nearly impossible to withdraw USD/EUR in ATMs in Russia.

    The sanctions are effective. They aren't powerful enough but they are definitely effective.

    Citizens of Russia do feel sanctions. For example many cancer patients died without chemotherapy. The consumer inflation is there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79 ✭✭RoundCube


    That's a bad, non-diversified, backing. Anyway nominal rouble rate doesn't matter if you can't withdraw the dollars, if black market prices are way higher and if you can't buy many things (PS5) for roubles and many goods imported through "parallel import scheme" cost lot more than they should if the nominal rate is "true".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79 ✭✭RoundCube


    Unfortunately, SWIFT is not the only way to transact and many countries are willing to transact with Russia using alternative ways, including russian QPS (quick payment system). Also so far most of the russian banks are still connected to swift. That's not a north korean level yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 644 ✭✭✭Darth Putin


    It was proved a load of shite by Putin himself who openly and oh so publicly proclaimed his imperial ambitions in St Petersburg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,295 ✭✭✭wassie


    Ol' Putin seems to have to work hard at hiding the shakey-shakes in his latest vid where he is made to wait.

    He can't sit still...like he has the DTs after a hard night on the turps....



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,295 ✭✭✭wassie




This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement