FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

No one should ever use the results of one election to make assumptions on the results of the next one especially given FG are likely to be toxic everywhere they run in 2025.

They had a vote share of 13%, which is more than enough for a seat. There is no other option unless the currently aged 71 year old Seamus Healy fancies another bite in three years.

Go and look what happened in 2011 to FF and compare to 2007 and get back to me. Some of ya on here can't be so young that you don't even remember as far back as 11 years ago.

We're really not in 2007 territory at all. I thought we weren't supposed to be looking back at other elections? The most recent vote share is a valid analysis as it shows how much of a quota might be available and they would have enough of one to get one elected. Unless you know of a complete collapse in the FG vote in Tipperary you're really guessing or perhaps wishing.

FG was actually doing quite well in the opinion polls before Christmas 2019. Then Charlie Flanagan went off on his run to have the Black and Tans/RIC commemorated. If you look at the opinion polls from December 2019 to the end of January 2020, FG's support looks like it has fallen off a cliff. When Martin's decided that FF should also commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC, its support similarly collapsed.

Health and Housing were the main topics in the GE. These are also likely to be major issues in the next GE. FF and FG will end up tearing each other apart if they don't have a joint candidate strategy and electoral pact. The other thing about the next GE is that neither Martin or Varadkar may be leading their parties. Varadkar is toxic after the Leo The Leak thing. Martin sacrificed FF for his ambition to be leath-taoiseach. There's still time for FF to reinvent itself before the next GE but it may involve pulling out of government on a matter of principle. That's why the budget is going to be a major problem for FFG.

Extrapolating GE results is not a good move. The opinion polls, even though they are just snapshots of public opinion at a specific time, may be somewhat more reliable but the complexity of the Irish single transferrable vote system means that small changes in support can have massive consequences. The swing against FG in 2002 was 5.4% but that resulted in FG losing 42.49% of its seats (lost 23 seats and won 31). In 2020, the swing against FG was 4.7% and it lost 12 seats. That was 25.53% of its seats. FG just can't afford another Varadkar "victory" unless it wants to end up like Labour.

Regards...jmcc

FG won't get rid of Varadkar and that's good news as he's poison to most voters. They're thick as bricks in that party anyway . . . forks in their hands as it rains soup. I mean commemorating the Black n Tans . . . who murdered and raped our ancestors says it all about how stupid FG are.

I've always felt that FF would move on Martin as soon as his time as Taoiseach came to a close (and that appears to be the case now). Martin wants 2.5 more years on the gravy train though and despite being leader since 2011 he won't go without a fight. Of course the main reason for this move on Martin is personal gain and the fact that his poll ratings are shockingly bad (probably because he effectively joined FG in 2016).

Whilst indeed the commemoration of the Black n Tans was a turning point it was undoubtedly the housing issue which changed, and continues to change, absolutely everything and this was a factor which found its feet out of nowhere during the last general election campaign to the point that SF could have won more seats had they run more candidates. What was remarkable is that this issue just came out of nowhere and derailed FF, FG and they've never been able to recover since .... and won't either.

Nonsense. You forgot about the Greens, I wonder why?

It's a Coalition between three parties. The next government will also be a coalition.

SF can talk about the long war all they want, but then again why did they run too few candidates in the last GE? Why did they do so poorly in the last local and European elections? Long war my arse!

Stick around long enough and they may get lucky, that is their long war. And of course if/when they do get in what then? There ain't no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow, and like Labour, before they will over promise and be found utterly wanting if given the hot seat. They may do well in the next outing, but their fall after will be worse than the 2011 FF collapse! It's going to be glorious!

Mark, the motion was first proposed by the opposition, it was then taken by government and turned into a longer process,(time wasting?) while they bought support.

As I said, they were snookered and the jury is out on whether they hit the ball trying to get out of it.

Somebody was asked about the effect of the French Revolution in the 1980's....'still too early to say' was the answer.

Same goes here, despite your predictable gloating.

Wow, you have to back 12 years!!??

Anyway, if you read the article it's a very different thing.

What SF did was make Durkin attend even though he was ill with Covid. Heartless idiot stuff. Then again, they have criminals and murderers in their ranks so I guess one is not surprised.

I expect more of the same uncertainty about government as the electorate yet again lob it back to the Dail to figure out what to do. That said, even these so-called disastrous polls has the incumbents closer to returning.

Hillarious. Every one of you lads has a different take on what the MoNC was for?

Failure is an orphan

So not Secret.

Jaysus, back for more.

'Organised in secret, a certain set of the party not told about it or invited' Leaked by those who have a track record of leaking.

All this accepted in the mainstream media, commented on etc etc.

Not by the few though, who cling to some pedantry in the hope of achieving god knows what.

😁😁

The whole notion of political tactics and strategy has passed you by. Well don't come running when you get a surprise.