Following on from
this thread
Please remain civil or posting privileges will be removed
A motion of no confidence has never been won in the history of the state without one party in/supporter of government either leaving government or withdrawing support.
It has only ever happened twice - in 1992 when the PDs left government and in 1982 and in workers party withdrawing support.
How do you know, that apart from the committed SF followers on here, that a single one of the 300 or so people interviewed by Red C had any interest in the MONC debate?
Boom the RIC event is mentioned
It comes up B. 'People reference event in discussion shocker'. Do you not like reminding?
Now you've issue with the use of the word 'secret'. What's your goal here, to make like it didn't really happen, while MM was out of the country?
Are you just trying to shut down discussion or what?
Boom the RIC event is mentioned.
Pity you don't understand the RIC event was an excellent display of how a government should work. They arranged the event and as I previously said some people wanted it. The feedback from the public was they would prefer not to have so the event was cancelled.
But that was the previous government so totally irrelevant to this thread.
Arranged in "secret" but Jack Chambers and Darragh O'Brien etc all knew about it. Jack even went to the "secret" meeting. I wonder how he knew how to get to it?
AT this stage we are aware that all FF TD's knew about this, the FF Minister in government knew about it, so we would have to expect MM knew about it, he also confirmed he knew about it
Anybody that follows the TD on social media knew about it.
Yet you claim it was a "secret" meeting. The question I would have, is who didn't know about the "secret" meeting?
As I said, we are back to the "filibuster" and some people seem to have invented a different meaning for the word "secret"
😁😁
The whole notion of political tactics and strategy has passed you by. Well don't come running when you get a surprise.
FF/FG have just ended covid leave for those working in schools and hospitals.
Jaysus, back for more.
'Organised in secret, a certain set of the party not told about it or invited' Leaked by those who have a track record of leaking.
All this accepted in the mainstream media, commented on etc etc.
Not by the few though, who cling to some pedantry in the hope of achieving god knows what.
You lads? The electorate? Im repeating what I heard. It was on the news the day before ffs. More makey up stuff from the 'we are doing great, its the people who are out to get us!' lobby. Did you expect the government to fall? I didn't. Putting them under pressure however is a good thing.
So not Secret.
Yea, I'm sure in 2056, the government of the day will hark back to the 12th of July 2022 MoNC..... FFS
Listen to yourself, passing yourself off as some learned historian and philosopher.
I heard the key intent was making the indies show their colours. Its good to get a sense of who you are voting for.
Hillarious. Every one of you lads has a different take on what the MoNC was for?
Failure is an orphan
Somebody who should have been in isolation attended?
I didn't know that, that is shocking.
You cannot seriously be saying that only FG can use the pairing protocols how they want? Are you? The arrogance of power is really becoming an issue.
I expect more of the same uncertainty about government as the electorate yet again lob it back to the Dail to figure out what to do. That said, even these so-called disastrous polls has the incumbents closer to returning.
When Martin's decided that FF should also commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC, its support similarly collapsed.
When was it that this was supposed to happen? In your head?
Wow, you have to back 12 years!!??
Anyway, if you read the article it's a very different thing.
What SF did was make Durkin attend even though he was ill with Covid. Heartless idiot stuff. Then again, they have criminals and murderers in their ranks so I guess one is not surprised.
Government TD's leak shocker!
Jaysus. 🙄
Mark, the motion was first proposed by the opposition, it was then taken by government and turned into a longer process,(time wasting?) while they bought support.
As I said, they were snookered and the jury is out on whether they hit the ball trying to get out of it.
Somebody was asked about the effect of the French Revolution in the 1980's....'still too early to say' was the answer.
Same goes here, despite your predictable gloating.
We will see.
FF/FG's plan is to talk about the IRA for the entire campaign in the next election. It won't work. Expect the unexpected at the next general election.
So continue with the calibre of cabinet we are use to.
The RIC/TAN commemoration showed how detached and happily so, the core of FG are. Thankfully we have some FG'ers who have a degree of cop on. It was just one incident in a list of gaffes that let's the Irish now there are some in power who pine for the good old days.
Yea, so secret Government Whip Jack Chambers was in attendance. FFS. Secret my arse!
The objective was to consolidate the idea, for the electorate, that FF/FG is a single party.
Nonsense. You forgot about the Greens, I wonder why?
It's a Coalition between three parties. The next government will also be a coalition.
SF can talk about the long war all they want, but then again why did they run too few candidates in the last GE? Why did they do so poorly in the last local and European elections? Long war my arse!
Stick around long enough and they may get lucky, that is their long war. And of course if/when they do get in what then? There ain't no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow, and like Labour, before they will over promise and be found utterly wanting if given the hot seat. They may do well in the next outing, but their fall after will be worse than the 2011 FF collapse! It's going to be glorious!
You are right, a MoNC has many purposes, one of them is to waste time, and the other is to show up ineffective opposiiton.
FG won't get rid of Varadkar and that's good news as he's poison to most voters. They're thick as bricks in that party anyway . . . forks in their hands as it rains soup. I mean commemorating the Black n Tans . . . who murdered and raped our ancestors says it all about how stupid FG are.
I've always felt that FF would move on Martin as soon as his time as Taoiseach came to a close (and that appears to be the case now). Martin wants 2.5 more years on the gravy train though and despite being leader since 2011 he won't go without a fight. Of course the main reason for this move on Martin is personal gain and the fact that his poll ratings are shockingly bad (probably because he effectively joined FG in 2016).
Whilst indeed the commemoration of the Black n Tans was a turning point it was undoubtedly the housing issue which changed, and continues to change, absolutely everything and this was a factor which found its feet out of nowhere during the last general election campaign to the point that SF could have won more seats had they run more candidates. What was remarkable is that this issue just came out of nowhere and derailed FF, FG and they've never been able to recover since .... and won't either.
It is as it can show historical trends. I wouldn't get carried away with the new 350,000 voters. They only count if people vote and I'd be pleased to see them do so. The trend has been downward and it would be nice to see it reversed.
Tipperary North before they merged in 2016 was a FG stronghold and Lowry hoovered up a lot of that vote but it still supports them. It hasn't changed just because your voting intentions have and there is a likely seat there even at 12%-13% in FPs. You are just guessing here and 77 seats is over double what they have so where exactly are they going to pick up those seats?
FG was actually doing quite well in the opinion polls before Christmas 2019. Then Charlie Flanagan went off on his run to have the Black and Tans/RIC commemorated. If you look at the opinion polls from December 2019 to the end of January 2020, FG's support looks like it has fallen off a cliff. When Martin's decided that FF should also commemorate the Black and Tans/RIC, its support similarly collapsed.
Health and Housing were the main topics in the GE. These are also likely to be major issues in the next GE. FF and FG will end up tearing each other apart if they don't have a joint candidate strategy and electoral pact. The other thing about the next GE is that neither Martin or Varadkar may be leading their parties. Varadkar is toxic after the Leo The Leak thing. Martin sacrificed FF for his ambition to be leath-taoiseach. There's still time for FF to reinvent itself before the next GE but it may involve pulling out of government on a matter of principle. That's why the budget is going to be a major problem for FFG.
Extrapolating GE results is not a good move. The opinion polls, even though they are just snapshots of public opinion at a specific time, may be somewhat more reliable but the complexity of the Irish single transferrable vote system means that small changes in support can have massive consequences. The swing against FG in 2002 was 5.4% but that resulted in FG losing 42.49% of its seats (lost 23 seats and won 31). In 2020, the swing against FG was 4.7% and it lost 12 seats. That was 25.53% of its seats. FG just can't afford another Varadkar "victory" unless it wants to end up like Labour.
Regards...jmcc
It's not a valid analysis. People change their vote all the time enough to make the most recent general election results irrelevant. An extra 350,000 voters will come active between the ages of 18-23 and most are going to vote SF. Around 150,000 voters will have died and most of them would vote FF/FG. Many older people, like myself, will vote SF for the first time as they've had enough of foreign vulture funds, landlords and private corporations/MNCs running Ireland.
At the next election SF will be on 40% at least in the polls. As things stand they are on 34-37%. These are the percentages Bertie was getting in 1997 when FF won 77 seats and came close to a majority.
We're really not in 2007 territory at all. I thought we weren't supposed to be looking back at other elections? The most recent vote share is a valid analysis as it shows how much of a quota might be available and they would have enough of one to get one elected. Unless you know of a complete collapse in the FG vote in Tipperary you're really guessing or perhaps wishing.
I despise what ff have done over the years. Our county has one TD and he is from ff. He works darn hard for Longford and he and his family receive stick daily on fb from people who have an opinion on everything. If they happened to go into his office and see the work he does they'd be shocked. It's a thankless job in ways although he does get well paid. I wouldn't do it for any money. Damned if he tries to do something good damned if he doesn't.
Go and look what happened in 2011 to FF and compare to 2007 and get back to me. Some of ya on here can't be so young that you don't even remember as far back as 11 years ago.
Leo embarrassing himself and FG again.
Like MONC's, it isn't a problem when they want to do it.
