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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,010 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I don't see any impacts, only launches.

    I would note that when Russian helicopters were observed firing in a similar indirect manner, it was reported as a sign of desperation and doom, that Ukrainian air defenses were so strong that the Russians had to resort to unusual measures. Example: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44803/russian-attack-helicopters-are-now-wildly-lobbing-rockets-over-ukraine

    It's actually a standard technique for Russian helicopters which include those Ukrainian-operated Hips.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    They seem to have this weird air artillery doctrine. fly low tilt up fire dumb munitions hope they hit something.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Without the British and America, the Ukraine would have lost by now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The Communists in France had no problem with the occupation of France and provided every assistance to the Reich on Stalin's orders.


    They only switched sides when the Nazi Communist love fest ended.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Sorry May not be clear was talking about the UK taking Russian money. keeping it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,068 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    No one predicted a time frame but I think we are all going to be surprised by the duration.


    Quite a few military experts even talking about years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl


    Yeah I wager the Russians will be heavily pushed back into pocket areas. Then a protracted war with rotational ceasefires that are ignored. Dug in situation artillery swapping fire. Vast majority of Ukraine will then go on as normal.



  • Posts: 634 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Militarily the US without question. Apart from that it Depends. The EU has opened its borders to all Ukrainians restriction free for the next 3 years while the UK and USA haven’t. Ukraine is chomping at the bit to join the EU and have the EU flag flying in their parliament. The pillars must be doing something right in Ukrainian eyes then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,711 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I remember a NATO spokesman saying a good two months ago that the war might last for years. Definitely not implausible : the Nazi-Soviet battle on the eastern front went on for four years and that was with two big armies slugging it out at full pelt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,370 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    I don't think that war is comparable really, even though it has been a constant comparison that people are making. That was basically two superpowers putting millions of soldiers on the line to dictate the future of the world and their survival in it. However I imagine this war will stretch on endlessly as Ukrainian resistance will never end, the hope being that the sheer investment by Russia will break the russian resolve maybe even overthrow the government.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    It is gonna be hard to do anything with Russia in near or medium term. Russia is currently producing more oil than prior to invasion and output is close to pre-pandemic levels. That coupled with much higher price... So much for sanctions, they mostly hurt everyone but Russians.

    The sooner it all ends the better for everyone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    The question that people should be asking themselves is, is the Russian army and economy as weak as they think.



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Russian economy? What economy… they dig up shît from the ground using Western tech/ experience and sell it to a world striving to get away from it… this war has accelerated that shift.

    Russia… it ain’t all that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature



    Nope I wasnt mixing anyone up ,

    Thats why I said CIRCA 1200-1350 when Genghis Kahn and the subsequent Mongol Empire - The Khanate of the Golden Horde .....

    we can get into the details if you want.

    Genghis Khan dies in 1227 , by which time his empire extended to modern day Kazakstan and the periphery of The Crimea. His lieutenants Tchepe and Souboudal-bagadour reached the Caspian sea, the Caucases and the Soutern Steppes.

    10 years after his death his son Ougundai sent his nephew (grandson to Genghis Khan) Bati/Batu-Khan back to the west after as you say diverting their efforts to modern day China. And he helped extend the Mongol empire to the shores of the Danube , The Golden Horde or Khanate ran into the mid 1300s. During which time events like when in 1318 Grand Prince George married Kontchaka sister of Uzbek Khan and she was baptized , led to the Tatars stopping being the RUDE SHEPEARDS of The Steppes and they mingled with sedentary and civilised races and went on to rebuild fresh cities on the ruins of those they had destroyed.

    So nope I didnt mix anyone up.

    Someone had asked had the Russians ever been the good guys, Im just pointing out a period CRICA 1200-1350 when Russia The GRand Princes of Russia came to the aid of tribes like the Polotvski who asked the Russians who at the time were their sworn enemies to come to their aid in the fight against the mongol horde etc etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    bit too fast on the trigger there , your 300 years out of date with your fact check on my post.

    I said " So I guess if you ignore Russia saving us from Islam in the 13th century  " 13TH CENTURY - I was CLEARLY taking about a period circa 1200-1350, Its not spin or a Russian narrative to say The Grand Princes of Russia fought the Mongol Horde and stopped the spread of Islam in the 12-1300s.

    Battles of Vienna was in 1529 , sure that stopped Suleman in the 1500s, but if The Grand Russian Princes had not stopped The Golden Mongol Horde 300 years before whose to say there would have even been a Vienna to defend.

    " Russia saving us from Islam in the 13th century " , thats a bit mad to try to contradict that statement by pointing out a similar battle in 1529 300 years later. The only analogy I could make to that wierd time travel history is its a bit like saying America didnt defeat England in the late 1700s because America fought with England 200 years later in WW2 .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    So I guess you wont be using any motorised oil fuelled transport system today , or using any modern day petroleum based plastics or textiles , or any light weight metals, or any cereal based food produce, or any steel framed structures.. after all thats all just some sht the Russians dig up, its not like you could base an economy on providing a huge percentage of the raw materials that feed, clothe and shelter the rest of the globe. (not!)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    Your also the guy who said Russia was doing little better than ... " A mickey mouse trade deal with say Mali ... "

    LEX in the Financial Times reports that Japan, more specifically the Mitsui and Mitsubushi corporatins have said they want to remain as key partners in the Sakhalin-2 Natural gas project. Japan relies on Russian LNG for 10% (circa open to correction) for its energy needs. And even though Shell are exiting the project , Japan wants to remain a key partner (20+% stake) in this .

    Sakhalin 2 according to SHELL provides 4% of the worlds LNG needs .

    Yet here on boards we have people telling you Russia is losing economically, sure they are losing some economic battles , are they being compensated by other major wins, one could argue they are.

    700 Million Euros heading Russias way today, 500 from the EU and 200 from China ... but but they have to discount the price is what some say, thats correct but their break even point on oil is about $40-45 , so any price they get over that is all profit, and oil experts say they give a $15-20 maybe $25 discount on whatever the market is. Oil is close on $108 so thats $80 bucks maybe, which is close on a 100% markup for Russia.

    Nope folks time to wake up, our Western leaders have led us down another dead end, the only people in the west suffering are the ordinary man/woman/non-binary/... in the street having to pay thru the nose for ordinary day to day living expenses.

    The sanctions were badly thought thru and have backfired catastrophically. Winter will expose the cracks in the mis-guided policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    If Russia is producing more oil then the law of supply and demand will dictate that the price will drop. If they are selling at a discount to India and China then that means India and China aren’t buying it off their usual sources which means more oil available for western countries from those sources. There is no hint of any supply issues in the current price hikes. Of course the current oil price has as much to do with the low prices over the last 2 years and making up that lost ground.

    I know of several large companies who bought 5 years worth of Diesel on future exchanges/ in bulk when the price was 1.30 per litre 2 years ago. That loss to oil corporations has to be paid for. That means ordinary customers like ourselves must pay for it. That’s what we are doing now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,891 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Is that a joke? Russia has displayed stunning ineptitude from the start and shown up their armed forces as a hopelessly obsolete brute-power force.

    They had similar problems against the tiny Georgian army in 2008 as well. Horrible logistics and combined arms operations, incredibly poor air force relative to its size and paper strength.

    Supposed to have been massive reform since 2008 and increased spending but whole structure rotten to the very core with corruption.

    It's every bit as weak as it looks. Whatever about the economy, not even the most ardent of trolls could keep a straight face whilst trying to imply that this whole campaign is anything other than a monumental embarrassment to Russia.

    Realistically, if the Russia armed forces were as strong as it should be based on spending, it should have flattened Ukraine conventionally in two weeks, without or without western weapons. It's military budget is about 20x bigger.

    The air force is a joke and ground forces barely better. Instead we now have a WW2 style attrition conflict where Russia is just blasting Ukrainian cities and towns to dust with artillery because it cannot gain superiority in the air or in conventional fighting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,043 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    700 Million Euros heading Russias way today, 500 from the EU and 200 from China

    You keep going on about this. And I think you seem to forget that they were getting that before the war too, if not more (I don't know the numbers). And out of that money they still need to do everything they were doing that's needed to run the country (wages, welfare, police, medical, etc, etc) and now on top they have to pay for a stupid war. Plus they can't spend the money they get on anything they usually would by way of imports.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Nope folks time to wake up, our Western leaders have led us down another dead end, the only people in the west suffering are the ordinary man/woman/non-binary/... in the street having to pay thru the nose for ordinary day to day living expenses.

    The sanctions were badly thought thru and have backfired catastrophically. Winter will expose the cracks in the mis-guided policy.

    Hmm. On the one hand there's all this condescending lecturing of other posters, mostly and bizarrely with the help of the FT, and then there is this persistent and incoherent rambling about the West. The backfiring seems to inside your head. Potential issues have been anticipated and work is ongoing to address them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,650 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    People who think objectively and with conscience are immune to it.

    conscience is subjective - people who think objectively about the situation do not engage in appeals to emotion at all. Very few posters think about this subject objectively since so many use appeals to emotion about evil russians bombing innocents etc etc.

    Ukraine is set up for modern warfare and Russia is basically doing it WW2 style.

    Interesting - is there any sources to give further reading on why this is? Surely if Ukraine were set up for "modern warfare" they would not be taking the same losses they are currently



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    I see the day shift has started...

    Yet it's amazing how the "west" based and grew their economies and outpaced Mother Russia without all that during Soviet times. Well except for occasions like when the Yanks needed titanium for their SR-71 Blackbird spy plane. They set up shell companies to buy up the stuff from Mother Russia to build a plane that would spy on Mother Russia.

    "We" can get all that stuff from other sources and do and always have done. Oh some of it will cost more in the short term that's for sure, but when needs must. However I guess "you won't be using" anything modern technology based today? Oh wait, you already are and Mother Russia can't make that stuff you're typing all this out on. The same stuff Mother Russia has become dependent on for digging up, refining and distributing all that stuff it sells and other than living off the land and crapping in an outhouse rural type, every single Russian uses every single day. Ireland, this little piss ant damp spot in the Atlantic can, but mighty Mother Russia can't and is many years away from being able to.

    Oh China will help!! Not with majority Western licenced technology and by far and away their biggest markets they won't. Oh they'll buy your oil a knockdown prices and look to leverage the Americans to lower the trade sanctions trump brought in while smiling at you, but that's about it. India will do what it has done for decades and during the Cold War, walk on both sides of the fence when it suits.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,298 ✭✭✭wassie


    And out of that money they still need to do everything they were doing that's needed to run the country (wages, welfare, police, medical, etc, etc) and now on top they have to pay for a stupid war.

    ....oh and don't forget the 'small cost' of siphoning off state wealth directly into the pockets of Putin & Co.

    Cant afford for the cronies to have to drop their standard of living now at the expense of the peasants.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    " The air force is a joke and ground forces barely better "

    Ukraine forces have left the Luhansk region.

    Russia has control over 20% of Ukrainian territory.

    It would be funny if it were not such a serious matter that people still call Russian forces a joke.

    I really think the question that people should be asking themselves is, is the Russian army and economy as weak as they think. Its too serious a matter to under-estimate your opponent.

    Id suggest people face reality and dont under-estimate Russian might , maybe then we could defeat it and reach a resolution.

    The strategy here seems to be calling their armed forces a joke and their soldiers clowns.. hows that strategy working out ?

    The clowns and jokers (posters here words not mine) have taken all the major cities in Luhansk, with Donetsk soon to follow .

    That most be embarassing to be losing ground to jokers and clowns.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,891 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Hard to take these at face value.

    You seriously want evidence Ukraine is better equipped for 21st century warfare than the fact it's inflicted staggering losses on a foe that has an armed forces and power projection (at least on paper) about 15x bigger.

    Russia spends about $70bn on military every year. Ukraine about $5bn...and until recently they only spent about a $1bn.

    The fact Russia a) completely failed to flatten them in the first two weeks b) has shown stunning ineptitude in logistics and combined arms c) it's air force is almost non existent and radically ineffective and d) has resorted to WW2 style indiscriminate bombardment should tell you all you need to know about how well the Russia army is equipped for true modern warfare.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Exactamundo. Their "strong" Rouble shows this. They're still earning about the same as before from exports, but can't spend it on imports, so the Rouble goes up. So on the one hand their supporters point to this "strong" Rouble as evidence sanctions aren't hurting, yet their own government brought in three interest rate cuts in as many months(after first raising interest rates to try and control a run on banks and other capital flight) to try to make it less "strong" because sanctions are hurting. Russian spin on this is akin to a fight where someone gets punched in the face and shouts "I hurt your hand". I'm sure it did mate, but your face hurts a lot more. A sure sign spin is being spun about something they don't like is when the one doing the spinning never shuts up about it.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Oh sure, but Ukraine were massively outgunned on paper and in reality, yet they're losing at a much slower rate than expected. Russia failed to take Kyiv and threw most of the kitchen sink at it in the attempt. Of course now they're trying to spin that as a tactic... They had and have far more of an advantage in the East, closer to supply lines, no need for tens of kilometers long of trucks, more local support, advisors already in theatre, a civil war going on for nearly a decade etc. And even with all that it's been a very slow slog. How long did they need to take Mariupol? Never mind against what they claim is a minority of "nazis" in those regions.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 97 ✭✭ZenNature


    and here he is, he is back, they guy who says we are winning the economic war with Russia .

    BanfOfAmerica released a research note last week saying World bond markets havent had a worst time since the mid 1800s !

    Stocks, bonds are on track for their worst year since post-Civil War, commodities best since WWII.

    S&P 500 its worst 6 months since 1970.

    The US 10 Year Treasury had its worst first half of the year since 1788 .. yes folks not since George Washington has the 10-year had a worst 6 months .

    COMMODITIES ON TRACK FOR BEST YEAR SINCE WWII . I wonder who deals in alot of commodities, RUSSIA , sure to reap a rich financial harvest (pun intended) from that. . Although some posters here refer to it as "Russia digs some sht out of the ground "

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-stocks-bonds-on-track-for-worst-year-since-post-civil-war-commodities-best-since-post-wwii

    So yer man here thinks that among other things if you ignore the bond market is at its worst since the time of George Washington, the west is winning the economic war..

    So folks crack open the cans of peaches, book the holiday, fill up the car, pick up some lattes and party on, the west is winning the economic war.

    People should deal in reality , dont be listening to people with their head in the sand ignoring whats actually happening , they are both clueless and dangerous.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,650 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Poster claimed that due to being a 21st century army that Ukraine will have no problem attacking and regaining territory in the coming winter - Russia's own incompetence and corruption in the armed forces thus far can explain most of their own failings, but the idea that Ukrainians are a superior 21st century military yet they continue to lose ground - but when winter comes around they will easily push back despite the problems of wet ground and poor weather conditions for drones?

    Theres a bit of cognitive dissonance going on here, hopeful optimism that the Ukrainians are just sitting idly by and holding it all in reserve until winter when they push Russia back out of their country. It would be nice, but its not realistic. The Ukrainian military is just as mechanised as the Russians, reliant on tanks and BMPs and heavy AA and artillery. Even with longer range NATO artillery pieces they will still face the same weather based issues as the Russians would have early on, limiting potential avenues of attack primarily to roads unless theyve decided to enlist tractors as part of the armed forces.



This discussion has been closed.
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