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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭thomil


    It's... complicated. For starters, the Armed Forces, and military forces in general don't really have the best image in Germany. This is not only due to the horrors of World War 2 but also due to the fact that many Germans knew exactly where any third world war would have been fought. If the Cold War had turned hot, Germany would have been turned into a battlefield. Going hand in hand with this was the fact that the role of the Bundeswehr within NATOs defense structure at the time was to basically fight a delaying action until either the REFORGER convoys started arriving from the US or everything went to hell in a thermonuclear maelstrom, with the latter being seen as the far more likely outcome. Even then, the Bundeswehr was not seen as much more than the US Army's poor cousin.

    This mindset has survived into the present day and is a key factor in the current state of the Bundeswehr. Basically, when the Iron Curtain came down, the prevailing perception was "Well, we don't need to delay the Soviets anymore, so why have an Army in the first place?", which drove the massive defense cuts of the 1990s. At the same time, a number of scandals started coming to the surface about "questionable" practices, including hazing rituals that in some cases turned deadly, and increased neo-nazi infiltration of the Bundeswehr, particularly in the Army. All of this turned any investment into the Bundeswehr that went beyond maintaining the minimum capability required by NATO into a political third rail: Touch it and you die!

    This is changing, driven, of all people, by the Green Party, whose current leadership generation seems to have realised that sometimes, you just have to take unpleasant decisions. And to be honest, I do believe Scholz himself also believes that Germany needs to step up its defenses. However, many in his party, the SPD, are still wedded to the philosophy that anything can be dealt with through dialogue, and to to make things worse, Christine Lambrecht, the current minister of defense, is an old-school left-winger.

    Having said that, investment IS taking place. The €100b special fund to rehabilitate the Bundeswehr has been voted into law and major procurement projects, such as the purchase of 60 Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, 5 additional Braunschweig class corvettes as well as new heavy frigates for the navy are all going ahead. As is the purchase of 35 F-35A Lightning to replace the ageing Tornado in the nuclear strike role. This latter one is remarkable insofar as "stealth" aircraft had previously been considered as "despicable" by many in the German political establishment, with Germany even seemingly going for the F/A-18 Super Hornet as a Tornado replacement just so that they wouldn't have to go for a "stealth" weapon. It was ironically Christine Lambrecht who finally decided in favor of the F-35A.

    And yes, Germany as a limited nuclear strike capability under NATO's "Nuclear Sharing" policy. This consists of the 33rd Tactical Fighter Wing at Büchel Air Base, which has access to 20 US-built B61 nuclear freefall weapons. These weapons are US Air Force property, are guarded and maintained by a US Air Force unit based at Büchel alongside the 33rd, and require both US and German "Go" codes before they can be armed. The 33rd is the unit that is slated to receive the F-35A, once that aircraft finishes its nuclear certification, which is currently in progress. Given its nature, the nuclear strike capability is obviously a political hot potato of the highest order and for years, there's been a concerted effort by left-leaning MPs and parties to get these nuclear weapons removed from German soil. Chief among these were the left wing of the SPD and the Green Party. Now it's a left-wing minister and the Greens who are pushing for a modernisation of that arsenal.

    There's also a general sea change happening in society. Jokes about the armed forces are still a common staple in German culture, and the recent discovery of neo-nazi cells within the KSK, Germany's Special Forces Command, certainly caused quite a bit of concern. But there's a growing realization that a world without weapons, whilst a great ideal to strive for, is hardly realistic. The Bundeswehr has made massive strides in recent years to present itself as an attractive "employer", with expanded childcare, social care and education options for service members and its families. So it's not as if the armed forces are left to wither on the vine, so to speak. But given just how long the Bundeswehr has been neglected, I'd say it'll take the better part of a decade to get it to perform at the level that outsiders seem to associate with the German military.

    EDIT:

    I know this is a long-ass post already, but this re-prioritisation of the Armed Forces does not mean that Germany is gearing up to take a more proactive role in the Ukraine war. Unfortunately, many in the SPD are still wedded to the old ideals of "Ostpolitik", and are unwilling to give up on the principles that served them well for decades. Certain elements of German industry are also still unwilling to give up on either their cheap resources or lucrative markets and are trying to exert political pressure on the government. With that being said though, the idea that Germany might be consciously and actively trying to help Russia is laughable. It's more a policy of sticking your head in the sand and hoping that things go away. The current political system is simply not smart or devious enough to engage in any large-scale conspiracy.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Russia claims to have killed dozens of Ukrainian military leaders in a cruise missile strike. The DW(German News agancy) seems to be the only non Russian organ one covering it or have I missed it elsewhere.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So Russia is stealing Ukraines Grain and ship them off via Crimea

    What a surprise

    That tells me Russia is suffering with their war economy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    It looks like history is starting up again.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I'd be very sceptical about this one - seems to have come solely from the regime's propaganda machine, with not a word about it elsewhere.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Well one German news agency DW has reported it. Has Ukraine denied it? I'm sure they've heard the reports and would surely be quick enough with denials.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,521 ✭✭✭zv2


    I've been trying to get info. on this for 2 days. Ukraine is mute.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Deutsche Welle simply quote the Russian Ministry Defence as making the claim.

    All I can see on social media are the usual army of Putin bots with the Russian flag in their bio repeating the claim.



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  • Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Couldn't really blame the Ukrainians if they accidentally destroyed their own grain and ports. Keep minds focussed. Probably not worth it yet though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Russian bots and troll farms are well established around Europe and elsewhere in the world aimed at seeping out Kremlin stories. Not to mention Russian sympathisers that are not Russian citizens who do the same things. There are a few around here!!! sometimes the stories have a vain of truth and get souped-up, more times they are totally made up altogether. A lot of such stuff is knocked out just to annoy and agitate.

    Dan.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The longer this goes on the more worried I am for Ukraine. The sanctions don't seem to be having the desired effect on Russia and Putin remains very popular. The ruble is showing strength and their gas and oil sales have gone gangbusters.

    Nah. The sanctions are very much having an effect. Putin raised the old age pension to great fanfare among official Russia, but it was to offset their already spiralling inflation and keep the older generation, a great source of his support behind him. The rouble is not showing "strength", quite the opposite. It's "value" is an illusion. It's not internationally traded and is essentially worthless there, it's bounced back because well, they've nothing to spend it on as imports have gone off a cliff, while oil and gas is still being exported. If your house is earning a basic wage and you get a cut to those wages and at the same time and unlike before you're buying nothing but the absolute bare essentials it looks like the "value" of your household has gone up, but it hasn't.

    The sanctions are clearly having an effect or putin wouldn't be threatening strangling the gas supply to Europe. He has two sticks, waving around the nuke threat and cutting off gas and oil. Germany especially is hooked on Russian gas, but it's trying to leverage away from it. The Russain pipelines themselves rely on Western tech to keep them runnning. They've feck all pipelines to the East to places like China so it has to be shipped and that costs a lot more, yet at the same time the Chinese and others won't make up the difference. They know they have Russia over a (oil) barrel. Knowing how Russia can and has acted, only a country run by an eejit would not be making plans to completely remove them from further energy risks.

    That's before we look at wider Russian industry and the economy. It's going more and more internal. International markets, at least those worth a damn are closed to them and will contract even more. In Soviet times they at least did export stuff to the West. The difference back the was the population was over double the size, the world economy less global and Russians had lower expectations. And that brings up their demographics problem, not least many of their best and brightest legging it like it was 1995.

    Their aerospace industry is utterly fúcked and likely to remain so for years. Even their newer locally produced kit relies on Western avionics and engines. To ramp up their own versions to replace that will take years. It won't be a case of a worried oligarch buying up ex McDonald's cafes and rebranding them. They can make French Fry chips easy peasy, they can't make modern Silicon chips. Their Boeing and Airbus fleet are banned from international flights and it's very likely it'll take many many years before they get access to that marke again, if ever. Those actions also buggered their chances of getting any international insurance and funding. Even their best buds China recently banned the Airbus/Boeing fleets from their airspace.

    For all the Chinese bluster about the evils of the west they know their bread and they know which side it's buttered on. The same evil west supplies a huge part of their tech to produce stuff for western consumption and western companies. Without America buying their stuff, their already shaky looking economy would massively contract. Russia with an economy not much more than Italy, or Texas is too small fry to support. Hell, all the major international shipping companies have cut Russia off, even if they wanted to buy Chinese tat and tech, they'll have to truck it there and if they did you'd see just how much "strength" the rouble actually has.

    Oh and Pol Pot, Hitler, Stalin and Mussolini were also "very popular" autocrats, right up until a switch was thrown and they weren't. That's the problem with autocracies.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,288 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Well as the reporter in the clip noted it would seem more than a bit odd to have that many, fifty apparently, top brass meeting in one place at the one time. And she's right. Especially these days with drones and intel and leaky comms. It would have been unheard of even in WW2 in an active battlezone with none of those things. Where and when top brass did meet en masse, it was very far away from any loud bangs and the ability of the enemy to deliver them. I could invisage the Russian having hit a command post and killed a handful of senior types, but fifty sounds fantastical and that's being kind about it. Russia has shown her general inability to be precise in the way the Americans were in the Gulf Wars twenty and thirty years ago. Even then with total command of the air and way more eyes in the sky and in the first week of that war the Americans didn't take out that many top brass in one go. TBH if Ukraine did arrange a meeting with fifty of their top people in one place and time, frankly they'd deserve to lose.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,363 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    A long post indeed but interesting and thanks for going to the bother of typing it

    Didn't know there was that attitude to the (West) German army in the Cold war but I suppose it definitely makes sense, given Germany would have been the battlefield (and so likely end up destroyed by that war), and it would all be fairly pointless anyway if a nuclear armageddon got touched off. I recalled it was a pretty strong military, in terms of size and amounts of equipment it had, especially on land - certainly nothing like the German army seems to be today anyway.

    I hope the recalcitrants and laggards in the politicial system (as regards aiding Ukraine [militarily], remilitarising, and cutting off remaining economic ties with Russia as much as possible, certainly until there's a major change in its politics regardless of the final outcome of the war) can be faced down or convinced it just has to be done, even though it goes against the grain of German policy up until this war.



  • Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It does seem a bit to good to be true allright

    They also claimed to have hit a weapons depot with western weapons a while back that wasnt even in Ukraine yet,so i would take it with a grain of salt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭thomil


    Germany during the Cold War was certainly an "interesting" place at the time. Being born in mid-1981, I lived through the tail end of that. One thing that always strikes me when looking back at that time, at least the part I remember, was how omnipresent the military, not just the German one, was in life. Conscription was still in place. My dad had served 18 months as a medic, under a doctor who'd served on the Eastern Front. One of my first memories was not, as you might imagine, something at Christmas, a trip to a zoo, or a birthday, but my parents taking me to watch military manoeuvres, namely a simulated crossing of the Elbe back in '84 or '85. During the summer months, it was a common occurrence to have fighter jets on exercise zip over your house at treetop height. During my first two years of school, we still had regular air raid drills. During the spring and autumn military exercise seasons, it was not unusual to see long convoys of Bundeswehr or NATO military units block up national roads or motorways. My dad's "close encounter of the 3rd kind" with a British SAM battery always comes to mind in that regard.

    A bit more sobering was the basement store room full of canned foods and pickled fruit and vegetables in our house, the fully fitted out second kitchen down there, a large "living" space as well as a garage that you could enter without stepping out the door. The only door leading directly into the basement led through a long, narrow room that could be used as an "airlock" and had high-pressure water mains to wash off any contaminants. Many houses built from the late 1950s into the 1980s had these features. No one really thought much of that at the time, and many people had similar store rooms, with several weeks of supplies. It was just how things were.

    Of course now, I know that all of this probably wouldn't have helped much and that the first sign that anything was amiss would probably have been a blinding flash in the direction of Hamburg, which would probably also have been the last thing I'd have seen of my mom who worked in the city centre. Given that the little village I grew up in lay right between two cities with major military bases (Buxtehude, HQ of the German 3rd Armoured Division, Stade, home of an artillery regiment, a combat engineering battalion and a supply battalion attached to that division, as well as a decent sized airfield), it's safe to say that we probably would have gotten a similar dose shortly afterwards.

    With that experience, I can't really blame people for trying to get rid of anything that reminded them of the time. That's why the Bundeswehr has shrunk from 12 army divisions at the end of the Cold War to just 3 divisions (2 Armoured Divisions, 1 "Rapid Forces" Division that contains paratroopers, airmobile units and special forces) today. That's the scale of downsizing over the last thirty years.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,423 ✭✭✭✭Say my name




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Thanks for the post. There's a great podcast available on iTunes etc called Cold War Conversations. A lot of stories from West Germany and how odd things were in an everyday way back then.

    One of the more recent episodes was about a West Berlin administered village that was completely surrounded by the DDR. Essentially an exclave of an exclave of West Germany in the East.

    For a finish, West German schoolkids walking to school had to be escorted by British troops.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,049 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Surely, the people of Mariupol must have had an inkling of what Russian forces would do to them before the city was surrounded. There was time to leave between the invasion and the encirclement. "Get out while you can!" is not difficult to comprehend.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,423 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    They were even leaving by tractor and trailers across fields, cross country till the Russians copped that, from Mariupol and the Russians started targeting those too.

    That post is complete victim blaming. Russians are human too. And can restrain themselves like any human can.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭blarney_boy


    Not sure if I can find the video link, but saw a clip three weeks ago from Sievierodonetsk of Ukrainian troops walking around trying to evaluate the best place to set up their defensive lines when they pass the door of an apartment block and realize there's several families still living there, the mother is standing at the doorway while her children run in and out.

    Ukrainian Soldier: You do know there's a war on? The Russian army is less that 20km away and advancing towards our position?

    Nonchalent Resident: Nah, won't be leaving, we believe it's safer to say put. A family we knew left two weeks ago and haven't been heard of since. We won't be making that mistake!

    I'm sure there was probably the same obstinacy amongst some residents in Mariupol, unfortunately the Ukrainian Army can only advise residents to evacuate - they won't force them to leave (that's the Russian playbook)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The people in Mariupol didn't realise until too late what the Russians planned for the city. By the time they started to flatten it with shelling, large numbers were already trapped.



  • Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Posts: 25,909 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And it was a majority Russian-speaking area with a close enough balance between Russians and Ukrainians so there will have been minorities welcoming the Russians, others expecting not much to change, others expecting preferable treatment etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,009 ✭✭✭Glenomra


    Six hours since the last post. The topic of the Ukrainian invasion is becoming less and less important. People are increasingly worried about the deteriorating economic situation and most people imo would like to see a ceasefire between Russia and the west/Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    The tripe you come out with. It is no less import then yesterday, or 3 months ago. You may not be in Ireland, but most here are, and the 6 hours you mention were from midnight to 6am. People tend to sleep at night, unless they are not permitted by constant shelling like your dear leader has ordered in Ukraine. There is not a huge amount of news to talk about as there appears to be a longish stalemate at the moment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,312 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Six hours since the last post? You mean between midnight at the time people get up. It's an Irish website.

    Strange how you never tried to validate your 'theory' and show us the equivalent post count overnight on threads discussing economic situation?

    There was 1 post on the Inflation thread since I last checked, 0 on the Recession thread and 10 on the Russia thread.

    So I guess what that means the topic of Ukraine is 10 times more important eh?

    This was the metric you set so let's here you apply your own logic and accept that Ukraine is 10 times more important???

    Because at the moment your posts have no credibility and you just seem to be here to drop in Russian propaganda cues.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 7,946 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Loving the pro-Russian "bots" - not actually bots, more like the human element of the Borg. Great to see they are worried.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    UK MoD, just because things seem quiet doesn't mean nothing is happening.





This discussion has been closed.
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