DISCLAIMER: The above posts are not evidence that Ukraine is winning the war. People should do their own research and form their own opinions on the matter.
Also China is having its own issues at moment with America etc. Over Taiwan. America abd some of its allies are building up or trying to build up more support over in Asia to counteract China and at moment China is trying to get more support with some of the of the other Asian countries and some of the other smaller Asian islands. China won't and there is no point saying invade and even take a slither of Russian land that some people are saying here on this thread. They know all too well there is a war coming with them and America over Taiwan and who is the bigger player in South East Asia and that is where their eyes are concentrated on not on a bit of Russian territory but on Taiwan and who is the real big player in south east Asia.
They are part of OPEC+ which is very, very slowly increasing supplies. Until we start to see extremely big inroads on alternatives, oil will continue to be the driver of the world economy but COVID messed up supply chains completely.
2 people killed, 10 wounded as result of Russian shelling in 7 towns of Donetsk region
The extent of his knowledge is pretty unclear and their initial garbled babble about a good partner suggests that they too were blindsided and annoyed.
This invasion would not have happened without Xi knowing about it.
If oil/gas prices were to drop (unlikely) it would hit the Russians hard.
The most recent workaround with sanctions was in the car industry.The result was if we haven't got the parts,then we carry on without them.That plan cant work in every sector that runs out of parts.Russia has lost friends that can help with workarounds.
When it comes to oil Revenues I'd expect the effect to pick up steam to a far greater extent.
I'm a big fan of these sanctions, and believe they are strongly hurting Putin and his cronies.
Its hard to say how the war is going. Morale is huge. On the one hand we have Ukrainians fighting an existential war, and on the other we have Putin willing to sacrifice his own untermench citizens without limit.
I'd love if Xi had a word in Putin's ear... those ethnic Chinese that are bearing the brunt of this war... they might want us to come to their aid ... you know, that area just outside our border that you've got only a tiny presence in...
I think that 4% has been around for quite a while and such numbers are often revised but I don't get the impression that it includes the oil/gas component.
Sanctions lessen in effect over time as workarounds take place
Great article. Although, disappointed that the drop in Russian GDP is so small. I suppose it further highlights how carbon based the Russian economy is... but, with the planned weening off of Russian oil/gas, why is Russia only forecast to drop a further 4% next year... I would have hoped for far greater.
Everyone except you knows that sactions take time to work but you are impatient.Sactions are working slowly and will have a huge affect.You are talking about winter and we are not at mid summer yet.Is panic and worry real with you? are are you purposely trying to spread that exaggerated misinformation
For now it's less evident but they are running out of munitions and equipment they will not be able to replace and against an enemy that has a potentially endless ability to resupply with superior weaponry. In addition, you can expect insurgency to rise significantly. It also becomes a tougher sell at home where sanctions are beginning to bite very hard. Donbass, IMO, is the about the limit of what they can claim to have captured but attempting to hold that will be hell on Earth.
Your pessimistic assumptions on how this war will go are not based on the latest evidence.This is not ww2 .You talk about Russian gains and Ukraine losses but you fail to mention or understand that these gains do not come free.You are trying to seed into people minds that surrender is best for Ukraine and defeat in inevitable.Your thinking is cowardly or pro-russian in my view
The sanctions havnt curtailed them on battlefield,it could be argued,those on front line are somewhat insulated from its effects back home?
If they have a winter to dig in,landmine and boobytrap everything,and will then be in the position of having to defend this contested ground,it is hard to see how they can be dislodged without horrendous loss of life??
Given how poorly the Russians have performed to date and bearing in mind the cumulative effects of sanctions this seems extremely optimistic for them, almost fanciful. The Germans, back in the day, understood logistics, Russia does not.
The nazis in ww2 were continuely expanding and taking territory,whereas if ukraine falls back to a safer position and the russians dig in over the winter and bolster defences.....it will take horrendous loss of life to dislodge them again
Nobody is saying Ukraine is doomed. We're just saying that posting endless clips of Russian tanks being hit and celebrating a few eighteen year olds being blown to bits and taking this as proof that Ukraine is winning while ignoring all bad news is not particularly helpful for those who want a realistic assessment of how this is likely to end. Both sides face huge problems and so far both the most pessimistic and optimistic predictions have proved wide of the mark, it's not that outrageous for people to look for information that's a bit more objective
"The first casualty of war is always the truth"
If ever a saying suited a war its this one, propaganda on both sides is off the charts...
On the coast 50k west of Mariupol,3 explosions in occupied territory
"Ukraine - Reports of a major sabotage attack in the occupied port city of Berdyansk this morning. Several large explosions and black smoke rising after energy and fuel infrastructure targeted"
I honestly think Germany ( well sholtz anyway ) is also playing for time , they've got to get their Gas storage full of gas before winter , they've got 2 floating lpg regassification platforms that will be in place before winter , and are hoping for a mild winter ....
But I doubt that scholtz will do much after this either ...
Opinion piece on sanctions, China and other things.
R=RUSSIAN W=WOMAN
(W): Hello my dear. How are you?
(R): You know what I ate today? You’ve never eaten this before.
(W): What?
(R): An animal.
(W): A badger?
(R): No.
(W): Mouse?
(W): Rat?
(R): A dog.
(W): Oh my god… Are you not being fed at all?
(R): Well, we wanted some meat.
(W): And?
(R): Nothing, I think it was alright. Although the meat is hard.
(W): Oh… This makes me sick…
Call 2.
(R): So, how’s it going?
(W): It’s alright, fine! “…” What do you have to eat?
(R): Eh… To eat… They brought some tin cans… Some salad with carrot, cabbage, we binned it straight away. It’s total crap. It’s like it’s for pigs.
(W): Yeah?
(R): Some strange soup…
(W): How many dry rations do you have?
(R): At the moment, none. Must have been nicked.
(W): They must be taking them out and selling somewhere?
(R): For sure…
😂Russia not looking after their soldiers.
https://wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-russian-soldiers-forced-to-eat-dogs-due-to-poor-provisions-supplies/
True There was precious little positive news to report from the Allied point of view until 1943. Churchill described the victory at EL Alamein in late 1942 as “the end of the beginning “. Where is the end of the beginning in this war? Have we passed it yet.
I think there is a minority in Russia that have a European outlook in terms of supporting western-style democracy and human rights. Unfortunately it seems to be a minority. What I'm unsure of is whether this is an interlude (like Hitler's Germany in between Weimar democracy and postwar West German democracy) or something inbuilt and longterm. Denazification in Germany was imposed by the Allies, though in the East it replaced one form of totalitarianism with another.
I see a lot of parallels between the European situation in the late 1930s and now. Appeasement in 2014 with the Minsk agreement which froze Russia's conquests in place in Crimea and the DPR/LPR. Apparently Macron, Schulz and Draghi are to visit Kyiv soon. As these 3 are seen as the softest supporters of Ukraine in the EU (I question if Orban is even a supporter given he has blocked the toughest sanctions), I have a foreboding they might pressure Ukraine into another unfavourable peace. The news yesterday that German has vetoed Spain re-exporting Leopard tanks to Ukraine does nothing to assuage my fears.
Sure - elections in Russia are somewhat rigged. But Putin did win a free and fair first election in 2000 during his aggression against the people of Chechnya after very suspicious explosions in Moscow, and the press at the time like NTV suggested an inside job. Putin soon got Gazprom to take over NTV - even sending troops to do so. A book by the late Alexader Litvinenko claimed it was an inside job. The book entitled "The FSB blows up Russia" was seized at entry points in Russia. Was there something in it? During the Trump administration there was litigation to try to force the U.S. to reveal what it knows about it but the government won the case against doing so. There were allegations a Russian defector told the Americans it was an inside job.
A very good round up of events for yesterday for anyone who wants more detail into the war.
Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than they did at the end of March, 2.5 months ago. So it's not like their grand offensive has had a lot of success since, even if it looks like they'll be able to win in the east eventually.
Reading this thread lately people think Ukraine is ready to capitulate and cede any territory that Russia has gained. Have a ceasefire for a few years, the west forgets about Ukraine while Russia regroups and in a few years takes more with another invasion etc...
The Americans and Uk spent 20 years in Afghanistan, they are not going to flick a switch after a few months in Ukraine.
Edit: Especially when Ukraine is not losing
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/eedacf599b4135dfd56d6fdbddcbd867.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://wc.vanillicon.com/v2/c6e76a2e0d85c3808d93c2f75a0c528d.svg)
