Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think you are misreading it. His mistake was that he attacked Ukraine. But all those atrocities you can't call a mistake. They are war crimes.

Mistake is when you miscalculate something and get a result different from what you hoped for. But knowingly breaking law and committing crimes is not a mistake.

Excellent post and well said. This is not just about Russia as well. We live in a free and open society. If we want to continue to do that and believe in democracy then Russia and it's authoritarian dictatorship needs to be defeated. Russia will not stop trying to wipe out Ukraine if yet another compromise is reached here. They will come back for more and keep coming back and move on to other countries unless they are defeated and stopped.

He is speaking in relation to Russia assessment. He is trying to understand from their point of view

Here Is his summary assessment

My argument regarding Russia's behavior:

1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence

2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities

3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation

note the crucial importance of the first point in that thread in January

Ukraine currently lacks a strong long-range fires capability. If they acquire that, they will have stronger conventional deterrence vis-à-vis Russia and could strike Russian cities. So a military escalation would be more costly for Moscow in the future than now. 2/

The problem with this view (Russia's view) is that it is devoid of fact or rationale. Russia's reasons for this invasion have changed multiple times over the past few months, from the downright bizarre to the utterly indefensible.

Moscow will say whatever it feels the 'intelligent' (Idiots) in the west will believe in order to get whatever it wants. But at the end of the day it just boils down to one thing. Moscow doesn't give a **** what the west thinks. It has shown that multiple times over the years.

For example, Moscow doesn't worry that Ukraine is increasing its defensive capabilities or could be hostile. Moscow was worried that Ukraine had a more prosperous path ahead of it as it had aligned with western values and hence the russian people might see what could be achieved if they had a government who cared for its people instead of fleecing them for its own benefit.

Interesting to see if this gets blocked by Scholz.

Not really. He's just presenting a line of thinking that needs to be remain out there and must give a sense that Russia are not complete pariahs and Putin needs to be aware that route still exists. After all, conclusions to conflict are resolved between enemies and that means the diplomatic route. 

This seems to be quite anathema to those kill all Russians and send them back to the Stone Age posters. They're going to end up that way anyhow as the pressure on their economy will slowly strangle it but it's just not as satisfying as all the shiny hardware that people imagine will finish it all off. 

He can't continue if he has no army and few weapons. Diplomacy is where this ends and it is far more complex than this type of reasoning.

Thank you for the Kremlin report comrade.

UK MoD seem to confirm Ukraine claims of a counterattack in Sieverodonetsk. Judging by this the clearing troops are not top notch.

There are absolutely no impartial actors in this at all. Kyiv too has its own agenda, a righteous one perhaps but not necessarily one that will deliver 100% of their demands. Again, I don't see where your reasoning that they don't want Ukraine to win is coming from, apart from a deep-rooted dislike for France and Germany and a personal distaste for any hint of half-dangling carrots to Putin.

This is not evidence, this is your belief. He's reminding him that another option still exists. Macron has no control over what will happen to Russia in Ukraine if they persist to the bitter end and he cannot and will not do anything to help them on the sanctions front until they give this up and withdraw. With the key position of Sieverodonetsk, they may see this as an opportunity to make a big announcement if they can even get it under control but the effort expended in capturing one city of 100K really makes the rest of their war effort looks very bleak indeed.