Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Ukrainian artillerymen use a special situational awareness system. Arta's GIS, as this tool is called, identifies enemy targets and indicates nearby weapons from which to attack them.

From today's Politico Paybook.

On Sunday, JENS STOLTENBERG, NATO’s secretary general, summed up the implications of these developments: “Ukraine can win this war.”

And that is exactly the problem according to a growing number of western officials and analysts who fear the fallout from what French President EMMANUEL MACRON called the “humiliation” of Russia.

Macron is not alone. Matthew Karnitschnig, reports this morning:

“After weeks spent fretting over what would happen if Russia crushed Ukraine, Western European leaders are now worried about what might happen if Ukraine actually wins. … One big concern is that a Ukrainian win could destabilize Russia, making it even more unpredictable and putting a normalization of energy links further out of reach. That’s why some western European capitals quietly favor a ‘face-saving’ resolution to the conflict, even if it costs Ukraine some territory.”

The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are all stressing a ceasefire and peace deal at precisely the moment when Ukraine has reversed the tide.

Karnitschnig notes that their fears of victory put them out of step with the Biden administration, which in recent weeks has talked about how Ukraine, in the words of Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, “can win.”

In an important column over the weekend, NYT’s Ross Douthat noted that the possibility of Ukrainian advances would make nuclear escalation “much more likely”:

“We know that Russian military doctrine envisions using tactical nuclear weapons defensively, to turn the tide in a losing war. We should assume that Putin and his circle regard total defeat in Ukraine as a regime-threatening scenario. Combine those realities with a world where the Russians are suddenly being routed, their territorial gains evaporating, and you have the most nuclear-shadowed military situation since our naval blockade of Cuba in 1962.”

Doubt it ,as seen in the past and present Russia can't and won't be trusted ,the only real reason they took Crimea in the first place was they knew the Ukrainians would tell them to vacate the port so they could use it themselves

. My brother went on holiday to Uzbekistan week before last, he booked it months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Hopefully he'll be back next weekend safe.

I mean it's hardly surprising people want an end to hostilities. The longer hostilities continue the more expensive it is for everyone involved; including Ukraine. And that's ignoring the various paths Russia might pursue in terms of further escalation.

Not only that but the same way Ukraine is prioritising its own people and future; other governments and leaders must also do the same w.r.t. their own peoples and collective futures.

Also I'm pretty sure when people are saying Ukraine "can win" they're not necessarily saying "Ukraine will likely militarily evict all Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory"; they're saying that Ukraine is likely to be able to force a resolution to the conflict on more beneficial terms than they have been offered or could reasonably expect from Russia at the current time.

USA are not doing a charity job by sending weapons. Russia will no longer be able to compete with them in LGN gas sale. So US will earn additional billions thanks to it. Germany has no LGN terminals because they put their bets on Nord Streams, so their situation is completely different. Longer war means gains for US, while big losses for Germany.

@ronivek Also I'm pretty sure when people are saying Ukraine "can win"

That's exactly what they are saying and meaning , they are winning and will continue to win , considering they were only given 72 hours at best they are steam rolling the Russians and I believe they won't be stopping until the last Russian leaves by the kirch straight

Does it make any difference though? - all the raw materials that would have been used will now be available to be eaten in other forms.

There is no low they won't sink to

Look, I hear you.

But (and this might be hard to fathom from where we are right now), we can always make choices that don't make a future confrontation even worse. Or, ideally, avoid that future confrontation entirely.

Not clear what 'put Russia in its place means' though.

What are you suggesting - Iraq style invasion and regime change? Which is impossible for very obvious reasons so I imagine you're not.

Or something along the lines of 'sanction them to death'? Or something else?

Putin already has an off-ramp to avoid humiliation - he can pull out of Ukraine and declare that his "Special Punishment Operation" was a howling success and he'll have a number of ruined Ukrainian cities to prove it. All his dead Einstazgruppski members can be proclaimed Heroes of the Motherland with gongs all round. His media lapdogs will parrot this round the clock, and most Russians will be happy to believe it and the ones who don't will keep their mouths shut because they know what's good for them.

Alternatively, he may be allowed to keep some of his territorial gains and...goto paragraph 1.

If he wants more than that then we're looking at a real victory for him and then the west is in full-on Chamberlain mode if it grants it: give him what he wants and hope he goes away. But history has taught us that those types never do go away. At some point a halt must be called. If not, the west might as well disband every army and destroy every weapon it has, because Putin will just need to say "nuke" and everyone will roll over.