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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Huge caveats that it depends on,

    1) The airlines policy.

    2) The legislation in place at domestic government level that the carrier operates under.

    Flights between Ireland and UK for example would only depend on the carriers policy.

    Flights between Ireland and France for example you'd have to wear one under French law.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 458 ✭✭john why




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,472 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    https://www.italia.it/en/covid19


    The use of FFP2 masks remains mandatory in the following locations:

    • airplanes
    • ships and ferries used for interregional transport services
    • High Speed, Intercity, Intercity Night, and Interregional Trains
    • buses connecting more than two regions
    • buses/coaches used for chartered services with driver
    • local and regional public transport
    • indoor performances in theatres, cinemas, concert halls, entertainment venues and live music
    • indoor sports events




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Certainly at the start it was looking like 2-3%. And this was primarily because for the most part the majority of the cases that we were aware of were bad to critical. People with mild symptoms (or no symptoms) were in general not being tested, therefore not being counted, therefore the only people we knew about were really, really sick.

    This is borne out in the worldometer graph:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#case-outcome

    At the start, CFR is super high because you have like 100 cases and they're all really sick. Like, dying in the ICU sick, because nobody knew what was wrong with them. Then it plummets as you become aware of loads more cases, but these people aren't actually dying. There was also a small lull in case growth as China got on top of thing. Then it rose again as the virus spread and the world went, "Oh sh1t, loads of old people are dying at the moment and we've been writing them off as age-related pneumonia, but we should actually be testing them to see if it's Covid"

    As that graph shows, 2-3% CFR for pre-Omicron strains without vaccination, seems about right. It's where the data was settling around the start of 2021, and basically paused around 2.2% in August when Delta kicked in.

    So while McConkey was not wrong to use that number, he was probably wrong to assume an 80% infection rate in Ireland at that time. Covid was not that infectious in March 2020, and we even knew that. The earlier strains seemed to start to falter around the 60% vaccination rate. So an 80% infection rate was never a thing. Omicron, of course, changed that. It'll go well beyond 80% if it hasn't already.

    You can then see a very clear cliff that the CFR falls off in January as Omicron kicks in. The global cumulative CFR dropped by 30% at the start of 2022. Which tells us how mild Omicron is in comparison. Between 1st January 2022 and today, there have been 807,000 deaths worldwide on the back of 229 million cases. That's a CFR of 0.3%.

    For the entire rest of the pandemic, the CFR is 1.9%

    If Omicron kept its infectiousness but had been as serious as Delta, McConkey wouldn't have been far wrong. But then there are many reasons why such a scenario is super unlikely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    I totally agree with you and don't trust word out of him and others after all this .

    That's why I thought it was funny that Fintan was now accepting what he was saying as true , because it suits him . While initially I watched and listened to some of these programmes I became more and more repulsed by their continuous panic and repetitive nonsense .

    Clare Byrne , Pat Kenny and their esteemed guests should be sent on a slowboat to Shanghai after the rubbish they have unloaded over the last 2 years .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Agree . See my post replying to live4tkd above .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    In fairness that prediction was based on exponential infection rates with no mitigation and no restrictions .

    It was not his finest hour though, Ficheall , and was the start of his descent into the over exaggeration that's become associated with ISAG .

    He has rowed back significantly lately but damage is done to his credibility as far as the general public is concerned anyway .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Great post .

    It was just as you say at the start with only those hospitalised and very ill being tested so the CFR was indeed 2 to 3% and still high until everybody with symptoms was being referred for testing .

    Everybody was scared in hospitals watching China and Italy and waiting for the wave to strike .

    He overreacted at that time ( we all were even saying at work " my God McConkey what are you saying ?" but there was not enough data to refute those numbers at the time .

    I think dominatinmc is correct that he should have been less anxious to put himself out there but it has been a learning curve for everyone really .

    Hopefully a once in a lifetime event ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    I see North Korea have locked down due to an outbreak since none of them are vaccinated. I'd imagine they may be even more ruthless than the Chinese. Wonder if they'll be asking for vaccines from the rest of the world.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 206 ✭✭Amenhotep


    I saw on the BBC earlier Gordon Brown warning about the world "Sleepwalking into another variant crisis"

    unless the low income countries are vaccinated.

    OK, surely at this stage even the biggest covidians know that vaccines just reduce severe illness, they don't do much on transmission and so can't stop "variant factories".

    Why are they doubling down on the vaccine ? they KNOW this is endemic now, whats the endgame here???

    Thing is , if you follow the money in these cases, they always have a vested interest, I'd love to see how much stock Gordon has in big pharma ...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    I see North Korea have locked down due to an outbreak since none of them are vaccinated. I'd imagine they may be even more ruthless than the Chinese. Wonder if they'll be asking for vaccines from the rest of the world.

    Doubtful. If they get any, they'll get them from China or Russia. The NK leadership would rather see millions die than accept help from the West. They're kind of cartoonish villians though. They would have very serious discussions about how a massive covid outbreak might reduce the population and ease their food crisis, and that would be a good thing. They could also very easily use it as propaganda and blame the West for creating covid to attack NK.

    Why are they doubling down on the vaccine ? they KNOW this is endemic now, whats the endgame here???

    You said it yourself, vaccines reduce severe illness. An Omicron outbreak in an impoverished country with little vaccination would lead to many preventable deaths.

    The variant thing is a bit silly though. Remember that Brown is a finance person, not an epidemiologist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 553 ✭✭✭ddarcy


    And if anti vaxxers followed the money they will find vested interests as well making money off them. But you don’t want to admit to the fact you’ve been manipulated.

    vaccines still help but aren’t the end all. Poorer countries will be impacted more as they will have poorer diets etc and be more prone to serious infection. If it causes less deaths I see no issue there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    North Korea are reporting nearly half a million cases of people being ill with an unknown cause - what they mean is that they're sick but haven't been tested. And they've reported their first Covid death.

    What this means is that Omicron is already running rampant and they're getting ahead of the leaks by revealing the information first themselves.

    They are completely unvaccinated (though I expect the top brass have been done since early 2021 and are getting boosted every 3 months) and already on the verge of famine before this.

    They're going into lockdown, and while they have the civil capabilities to enforce a lockdown, they don't have the resources to supply residents with food and water during lockdown.

    This has the potential to be a humanitarian disaster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    I note you quote another utter buffoon , Ben Scallan !

    Another good reason to avoid the Twitterati .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭Spudman_20000


    Doesn't make it any less true, it's literally audio of McConkey making the prediction around deaths.

    Maybe I could have provided a tweet from an MSM source if any of them ever took the time to report in a balanced way, instead of just parroting the biggest doom mongers they could find.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,460 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Providing a tweet from an idiot about an idiot sort of cancels it out , imo , but it's just my opinion spudman .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    In a morbid way, North Korea might be about separate the wheat from the chaff here when it comes to whataboutery and bad predictions.

    In 3 days, NK has gone from "1 dead, 200,000 probably infected" to "50 dead, 1 million infected".

    And it would be reasonable to assume those numbers are being underreported. Around half of those are "receiving medical treatment", which could be "given paracetemol", but in comparison to Omicron outbreaks here in Ireland, these are bad numbers.

    They're in lockdown, but we know from past experience with Omicron that it's already too late. Numbers there will keep increasing for around ten days and we're going to see what really happens when Covid spreads unchecked through an unvaccinated population.



  • Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Unvaccinated population with widespread malnutrition and likely poor access to medical supplies, could be carnage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Yes. it’s not really a comparable situation to the western world when you have people with widespread malnutrition and bad conditions. Going to be a lot of sick people over there!

    Regarding BA.2, there are rumours it maybe a bit milder than BA.1.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,511 ✭✭✭corkie


    Reporting of cases now moved to weekly on the Hub. As of today.

    Change to Frequency of Updates: From the week of 16th May 2022 onwards, data on COVID-19 cases (PCR and positive antigen results) and deaths will be updated once per week, each Wednesday. The weekly update will include data for each date since the previous weekly update and will not result in any gap in the time series.

    First HSE (/gov.ie) stops posting the details and this now.

    Post edited by corkie on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Looks like Anthony Staines not too happy that we are living our lives again. Found it on Twitter. Some of the replies regarding the litigation part would make you vomit. One guy on twitter is “excited” about it.




  • Posts: 543 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "However, long Covid, which affects about 125,000 people here."

    "Very recent work suggests that all of these are quite resistant to current vaccines, and that even recent infection with BA.1 or BA.2 (the “original” Omicron) provides little protection."

    "masks are cheap and surprisingly effective, with recent Irish data suggesting they can reduce transmission by more than 40 per cent."

    Yeah those statements are all bullshit.



  • Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A bunch of friends and family that supported severe lockdowns are now voicing their frustrations at the cost of living and getting scared with record levels of inflation and recession.

    It actually baffles me that the penny is only starting to drop now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    It seems the new buzz with the zealouts and NPI crowd on Twitter have latched on to is the reinfection figures of Omicron.

    I think i need to start licking door handles and kissing strangers. I just can’t catch it even once 😆😆



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Academics. Out of touch with reality, as usual. "wearing FFP2/N95 masks in crowded indoor settings – retail, schools, workplaces, public transport". Like, what, forever?

    These guys think it's reasonable and feasible to require that everyone carries a mask with them at all times and put it in when they go into busy indoor places. Indefinitely.

    They've always been this out of touch, but it's kind of amazing how many people remain obsessed about this mask thing and won't accept the reality: The vast, vast, vast, vast, vast majority of transmission takes place at home and other social settings.


    Why in the everloving name of fvck would you be bothered with a mask when out and about when the chances are that you'll catch it at home?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20 Howok


    covid 19 will disappear soon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    According to some of the twitteranians no mask mandates and no heavy restrictions won’t be sustainable 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32




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