Softening house market?

http://daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2022q1-dafthouseprice

Sobering reading.

House prices have risen nationally every quarter for the past seven. Still a massive undersupply of houses, new and second hand.

There won't be much softening until we get more supply, which could be years away.

Inflation in rental costs will push more towards buying.

Ukraine likely won't have much impact on people's decision to buy.

Saw a house near me reduce in asking price by 20k today. First time I’ve seen a reduction in years. It’s crazy out there.

You might see more of these. Houses it seems are being priced at a little under expected sale price in general. Sometimes though im sure the vendor will overshoot and price it so high as to just drive away any interested viewers and will have to reduce to get them interested in looking. After that I guess it depends on the value they feel the house is worth after viewing.

Its very possible that if you keep an eye on that house it may still sell over the original asking price. Or maybe they have totally overshot in their estimation of its value. It doesnt mean tyhe house is worth any more or less than it is worth.

Not seen any evidence of that. All properties I know of nationwide currently, have gone sale agreed almost immediately for well above asking price.

Property prices havent increased in a decade and a half :)

The big difference between now and then is that the banks arent going crazy.

Other things might be happening that could drag it back, such as tech salaries softening. But this is more marginal than the banking issue.

We will never get the supply of houses that they are talking about achieving. It won't happen.

House prices might not rise to much more but they certainly won't drop.

It's a totally different market to the Celtic Tiger era. No 110 percent mortgages with the new car sitting in the drive etc. The bank and thus the taxpayer aren't as exposed it things go tits up this time.

Lets not forget that the arrears crisis is still with us with a lot of people still not paying back the full amount per month and have tens of thousands of arrears on their balance.

The cost of everything s going up but it isn't being matched by a rise in salaries.

Point out where I said "bottom out"

thin skin

Based on what we know of the root causes behind the rise yes I think it will only go up for the medium term. I don't think they will keep rising at the rates they have been but I don't see a massive crash though, In saying that if building materials and the costs of construction in general keep rising , not matched by wages then people in turn might not be able to afford to build. It's a hard one to predict that.

The arse didnt fall out prices declined over 4 years that is hardly the arse falling out. There were still sales going on in those 4 years and the fact that the banks stopped lending stopped a lot of people from buying in that period also.

ECB rates will be at 1.5-1.75 by September next year (looking at euribor futures and interest rate swaps), this will put about 2% onto interest rates here. It should seriously affect the amount people will be able to borrow. In my opinion, we will see house price drops once that kicks in. As to the OP, it can be good to keep on eye on thing like numbers turning up at open viewings etc to see where the market is going.

I'd agree with this, when we were looking in 2011 we went to open days where we were the only ones turning up. Some estate agents at the time told us they were not doing open days, just by appointment only- at the time we assumed that was because nobody was turning up to the open day on some houses.

The crash happened because of credit tightening, this time tight supply is keeping prices raised, maybe the so called "soft landing" is actually going to happen this time.

Frankly I'd rather prices dropped as we are now trapped pretty much in a home we have largely outgrown as the cost of trading up has now increased too. Our neighbour is selling up for the same reason though he is moving to the countryside where he has family so will get more bang for his money.

Right, in terms of viewings etc. I just mention it because during the crash the last time, I timed buying by reading the property pin where bears were turning bullish and there were people saying a noticeable change in numbers turning up at viewings etc. This was end of 2012 and I started looking then, buying about 5 months later.