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Did the lockdown policy cause the surge of hepatitis cases among children?

  • 27-04-2022 3:56pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭political analyst


    The adenovirus that usually causes cold and flu and diarrhoea has been linked to the increase in the number of cases of children having acute hepatitis in Britain because the lockdowns that were imposed in March 2020 meant that children were much less likely to get the adenovirus and thus unable to develop immunity to it.

    Did public-health experts who called for lockdowns not think of this being a possible consequence of the policy they were recommending? Surely, Covid didn't mean that those experts forgot about other diseases, did they?



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    didnt you get the memo? covid is old news. Its all about Ukraine now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It's a bit of a jump, considering that Adenovirus has only been identified in some of these hepatitis cases. They're calling it "probable", but I wouldn't pre-empt the outcome.

    Anyway, yes, the health consequences were noted and called out early on in lockdowns, and it's why the WHO specifically called lockdowns a measure of last resort.

    The incidences of hepatitis are still very small, very far from the freaking out stage. Severe cases even rarer still.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,137 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    It's only a hypothesis so far.

    The media hype has been substantial.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    The problem here of course being that they were our first and practically our only "solution".You're right, it is completely inconclusive.We just don't know.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I worked in a job once were senior management wanted us to do everything in our power to meet a target. So we did and we met the target. Then we gave ourselves a nice pat on the back.

    It all fell apart eventually. Lots of OT to be paid, annual leave built up, other targets and customers sacrificed.

    The same applies to Covid and lockdowns. We have huge levels of debt and inflation. We have weaker immune systems. We'll have plenty of victims due to the cancellation of screenings, treatments, appointments etc.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Under 40s (which is almost half the population) were three times more likely to die from suicide than COVID BEFORE we had vaccines. Just think of that for context.

    Of course it is plausible that other health issues could have drifted under the radar because of the hysteria around COVID.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    There are several children needing liver transplants as a result, given the relatively low incidence so far thats a pretty high % of severe cases



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Like with covid, the severe cases obviously bubble up faster. As they get a better grip on this, they'll develop quicker ways of identifying and classifying this. We'll likely discover that as a % of total cases, the number of severe outcomes is very low.

    Nevertheless, we still have to keep this in perspective. In a given year, the odds of a child dying from cancer is between 1 in 500k to 1 in 300k. The odds of a child dying from septicaemia, around 1 in a million. Which means by implication that the number of children suffering with these conditions and surviving and needed critical treatments, like surgery and transplants, is much higher.

    Based on the data we have right now, the odds of dying from this hepatitis is 1 in 3 million or less. It will probably increase as we get a better grip on it, but it is very, very far away from the panic stage.



  • Posts: 864 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lockdowns weren't designed to reduce deaths, they were designed to reduce the pressure on the health service.



  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭foxsake



    short term thinking and a lack of backbone has nowgoosed the health service in the medium - long term with the stuff they didn't do over that 2 year (or so ) period.

    you wouldn't need any science or medical grounding to know that lockdowns and other measures like excessive hand sanitiser would damage immune systems esp on kids in their formative years. we will see more of this without a doubt .

    we are seeing reports that language development is stunted for a whole generation of under 5 due to lockdowns and associated measures. even simple things like kids learning to swim was curtailed and now the classes are over subscribed - sure swimming lessons isnt a huge thing (but speech development is ) but all these add up

    it's not like these issues were never flagged at the time - they were and they were ignored - everybody and everything was burnt on the alter of covid and the myth of protecting "the grannys".

    If we take the view that protecting the health service for those at risk of covid was the right thing - it wasn't btw - why aren't the state agencies demanding people lower their risk factors now in advance of the next pandemic to reduce the demand.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Only lockdowns or our entire covid restrictions? Because I recall not wanting to get vaccinated and seeing no reason at all for a booster ever for myself due to the negligible covid risk I pose to our health service as being an inappropriate stance to take by those shaming the "unvaxxed".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Such emotive language, " shaming the unvaxxed " and " hysteria " . Appears a lot in your posts ..

    The " unvaxxed" when Delta was the main variant , were multiple times more likely to be infected and 11 times more likely to be hospitalised and 15 times to become severely ill , despite you stating the opposite whenever you get the opportunity.

    That would be across the age groups by the way , not just elderly .

    Any accusations of " shaming" as you put it , were highest when anybody dared to mention the above , and the fact that exceeding high numbers of the unvaccinated were being hospitalised and needing ICU care , despite being their being a small proportion of the total adult population .

    Do you not think it would have been remiss of health care professionals and public health to point out this glaringly, obvious fact , or would you prefer we all stfu and leave " the unvaxxed " to their fate , despite the effects on the rest of the population in the form of continuing restrictions? No need to answer that , I already know you have no regard for what is factual data for most people.

    To get back to the point of the thread ....This burst of hepatitis infections has not been either connected with Covid , or adenovirus as yet never mind lockdowns, and may in fact be something connected with all of the above or just coincidental ..who knows ? We will have to wait and see .



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Genuine question - where did you draw that conclusion from? I.e. do you have a source for the claim that lockdowns were not designed to reduce deaths? I thought (please correct me if I am wrong) the idea was that by reducing the pressure on the health service, deaths would be reduced...



  • Registered Users Posts: 270 ✭✭Captain Barnacles


    I see they are bending over backwards to deflect away from the lockdown cause of this, was reading a BBC article saying it could be related to dogs.


    Yes dogs did this, not the nonsensical lockdowns that shielded kids from viruses they need exposing to to build up immunities ... but eh ermm .. eh -- dogs.


    Yep ... imagine keeping a straight face whilst writing that article.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Here's the thing, Captain...the viruses that normally cause hepatitis don't do anything to build your immunity up ..except cause , eh , hepatitis , which is a nasty bug if you ever had it and not something that anyone would want to be encountering more than once in a lifetime .

    So no , lockdown and lack of " building up little children's immunity to hepatitis" (!) of all things did not cause this !

    Fxxx knows what did but I am pretty sure that would not be up there on the list .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Except in all these cases the children tested negative for all hepatitis viruses - it was not the usual causes of hepatitis that did this, otherwise it would have been a regular occurrence because those viruses never really went away proper, nor were children exposed to them in any unusual way. The last 2 years of pandemic are the unusual factor in this cluster of cases, which suggests something to do with pandemic or pandemic response is to blame.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The point is that if this issue is due to children not being exposed to certain viruses (e.g. adenovirus) due to being locked down, then why is it a new problem? Adenoviruses have been around a long time. Why would they now suddenly start causing hepatitis just because kids weren't exposed to them before? If there was a link, then we would have known about it previously.

    Given the extremely low numbers involved here, there is of course the possibility that this link has always existed, but was so statistically small that it was never picked up before. Which would mean that what we are seeing now is 3 years' worth of adenovirus-linked hepatitis compressed into one year, and so it's popped up on the radar. That doesn't mean lockdown or the pandemic response caused hepatitis; these cases would have happened anyway, just over a longer timeframe.

    It also can't be ignored the really obvious link between many of these cases; children under 12 - and mostly under 5. What else links them? Not being vaccinated. It's possible that this is a post-covid issue in younger children that we're not seeing in other populations because they're vaccinated.

    The dog link also isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. Some surveys suggest that a third of young families (adults aged 19-40) had or planned on getting a new pet during covid. Given that these would be the group most likely to have young children, it's not unrealistic to suggest there could be a knock-on effect. Immune reponses are known to be a component in some forms of hepatitis, and a new animal into an environment with a allergen-sensitive child, could set off a chain of events.

    There are a lot of possibilities here, it's irrational to presuppose anything.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,114 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Which would mean that what we are seeing now is 3 years' worth of adenovirus-linked hepatitis compressed into one year, and so it's popped up on the radar.

    Which would mean that lockdown policy has created this surge of hepatitis cases among children



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The recent UKHSA report showed that 70% of the children involved were part of a houshold that included dogs. Given it's a common link it would be wise to explore it but I doubt it's a serious hypothesis (not that that bothered the media relorting on it).

    FWIW I very much doubt it's Adenovirus. They aren't generally associated with Hepatitis in healthy children. Even a reduction in immunity wouldn't explain the sudden rise in cases.

    Likewise with Covid. No matter how rare it would have been spotted it by now. For comparison MIS-C is extremely rare yet it was spotted early in the pandemic.

    The truth is no one has any idea what the root cause but that hasn't stopped people linking it to *insert relevant agenda here*.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Adenoviruses don't usually cause hepatitis though even in a young child who has not been infected with them before .

    And they have not yet found a source virus although adenovirus is present in a good number of cases .

    No proof yet as to the cause . Saying it is due to the pandemic is probable but not definite . Saying it us due to lockdown is too simplistic.

    Some of the children affected are older and would have been mixing with other children in school / afterschool .

    One area that is being investigated is an overreaction of the immune system causing autoimmune hepatitis which can present similarly .

    Not related to Covid . Nor have they been vaccinated .

    There would be a number of specific antibodies present in a diagnosis of AIH ( Auto immune induced hepatitis) and the jury is out as yet whether it is this , or a post viral infection reaction .

    It could be that these children are reacting to previously common viral infections in a very exaggerated way but Misc- C was picked up quickly and is rare , so why would this be so difficult to diagnose?

    Read an interesting article about it that said that there was a similar affect noted post 1918 flu epidemic ...lot of cases of jaundice in children . In the Telegraph . Doesn't go into further detail .

    It's a mystery and not a nice one .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    RIP to that poor child that died and condolences to the family .



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    It's bizarre (I admit, having kids in that age group I am thinking, not ANOTHER f**king random viral thing to worry about 🙄).I don't think lockdowns caused it directly, but just anecdotally, the kids around us have been hit by so many things badly in the last 10 months and there's no doubt the lockdowns were just not good in that respect.I mean you don't want your kids permanently sick from exposure to germs when they are small, but with the lockdowns, it has been kind of extremes - nothing at all, then everything, then nothing, then everything on steroids basically, because masks went too.It's been very tough and very weird.I guess this is possibly an indirect result.It was inevitable there would be unknown unknowns resulting from these lockdowns, things we could never predict happening and this may well be one of them.

    And RIP to that poor child who passed away, and the parents and family.Terrible for them all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,282 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Poor child who passed away, RIP. Also thinking of those who are ill. Really hope they get to the root of this issue soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Have to say that while one of mine has developed an autoimmune disease post Covid infection , it could be as you and others have said lack of immunity post restrictions .

    Don't know what it is , but don't feel comfortable talking about it anymore after that news today 😑

    Take care x



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    Possibly.Nothing we can do except wait it out and see if a cause is found at some stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,172 ✭✭✭screamer


    I’m no expert but I do not think that this is to do with lockdown at all. I wonder did those kids contract covid and this could be a rare side effect. Remember that cohort under 5 are not vaccinated. It’s only my thinking but there’s more to this than adenovirus.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Do you understand what context is? 11 or 15 times of an extremely low possibility could still be an extremely low possibility. And this was the case with half the population, ie under 40s, who were, without vaccines, as they always have been, of negligible risk of needing to go to hospital should they have contracted COVID.

    I took the J&J one shot vaccine but had absolutely no problem with someone who never wanted to take a vaccine because, as I have constantly pointed out to you, an unvaccinated person is not a risk. The risk comes from a COVID positive person! You can't think in black and white with COVID, as you cannot in life in general.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Eh , think that the person thinking in black and white is you AD .

    That post was over 2 weeks ago .... do you understand context ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Saw this earlier. It seems likely that lockdown and social distancing did cause these cases, due to younger children not being exposed as expected to 2 viruses in particular




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    Genuine question. Was Australia and New Zealand right with their zero covid approach at the beginning? A normal life for all.

    Now we have all sorts of problems. Kids with hepatitis. Supply issues because of staff out sick. Cost of living getting more expensive, a recession on the way.


    And if anyone thinks a zero covid approach is impossible, we didn't even try a zero covid approach. If we all had a zero covid approach at the beginning, maybe it wouldn't have gotten into Australia or New Zealand.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This is literally what lots of people wanted and it was pointed out to them many times that lockdown would do huge damage to society.

    Most of the issues you mention were caused by lockdown, not COVID.

    Zero COVID was never an option.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,494 ✭✭✭fun loving criminal


    Nobody wanted lockdown. There are staff out now with covid causing supply issues. So supply issues wasn't due to just lockdown.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Take a look at Australia and nz now and see how they are getting on with covid. Spoiler alert, it isnt too good. Their lockdowns and strict border closures did nothing but delay the inevitable and they do have the detrimental immune effects too caused by social distancing and lockdowns to deal with too. The flu is running rampant there now also due to a lack of exposure in the past couple of years. Zero covid could never happen. Not without literally destroying society anyway. I'm sure in the years to come it will be looked back on as complete madness and hysteria.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Were are staff out? Are they sick or just out due to isolation requirements? Most likely the latter in which case it's more self inflicted issues.

    People did want lockdown so they could feel safe from COVID. They just didn't realize all the negative effects it would cause.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Review of research and data on childhood hepatitis of unknown origin discussing past Covid infections or co infection causing inflammation or persistent gut Covid infection causing an autoimmune imbalance.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The BBC link from today specifically states that UK researchers have ruled out covid and covid vaccines as a mechanism



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Yes , thanks , saw that . Don't know where they got that from from though . Covid vaccines ruled out a while back ,but nothing definite yet about covid infection being ruled out as cause or catalyst .

    Some researchers think that it is viral coinfection whether it be 2 adenoviral strains , or covid and adenovirus , acting as catalyst for auto immune mediated inflammation of the liver .

    Be good to see the research that clip is based on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭walus


    They are associating an adeno-associated virus together with an adeno or herpes virus with this acute hepatitis outbreak in small kids.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.19.22277425v1.full.pdf

    Looks like a co-infection of two viruses is required for this to happen. Since it is happening only for young kids, one hypothesis could be that they did not develop immunity to those viruses as their exposure to them was delayed by the measures that were taken to deal with covid, especially lockdowns. Now they have to deal with multiple viral infections at the same time without prior immunity to many of them.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭political analyst


    According to that article, Prof Emma Thomson said:

    "Larger studies are urgently needed to investigate the role of AAV2 in paediatric hepatitis cases. We also need to understand more about seasonal circulation of AAV2, a virus that is not routinely monitored - it may be that a peak of adenovirus infection has coincided with a peak in AAV2 exposure, leading to an unusual manifestation of hepatitis in susceptible young children."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    And just prior to that it is also stated:

    One of the investigators, Prof Judith Breuer, an expert in virology, at University College London and Great Ormond Street Hospital, said: "During the lockdown period when children were not mixing, they were not transmitting viruses to each other.

    "They were not building up immunity to the common infections they would normally encounter.

    "When the restrictions were lifted, children began to mix, viruses began to circulate freely - and they suddenly were exposed with this lack of prior immunity to a whole battery of new infections."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭Spudman_20000


    Can't imagine dousing kids in hand sanitizer helped their immune systems either. All for an airborne virus, ridiculous.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭walus


    There is a larger picture to be considered as well. In many 3rd world countries due to lockdown measures kids have not received their regular vaccines yet. Those routine vaccines that are to protect them from all those devastating but preventable diseases associated with an early stage childhood were simply not administered in time. There is a serious concern out there that mortality of kids under 5 years of age will hit levels that have not been seen in decades.

    It is sad to see these secondary and third level effects of 'dealing with covid' policies unfolding in front of our eyes. As I have been saying this since 2020, it is the kids and young people who will pay the greatest price for this. No doubt about it.

    Post edited by walus on

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Have those public-health experts who called for lockdowns not been asked about the recent cases of hepatitis?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,196 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    There are parents not bringing their children for regular vaccinations because of antivax sentiment over Covid vaccines.

    Maybe it's time to ask these people how they feel about children not being protected against ordinary childhood illnesses , not to mention Covid ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,282 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    This has nothing to do with Covid vaccines - as you stated yourself earlier in this thread. They are next to useless for children who are not at risk of serious illness from Covid - all the data backs this up. Look at HPRA data - 1 in 2,200 children suffer serious side effects from the vaccines that don’t prevent infection in children (January data) - and this is an underestimate as more information is now rolling in suggesting higher figures. 1 in 3,000 children might get the inflammatory response (Delta variant figures) which is being reported at a much lower rate with the Omicron strain if infected with Covid.

    These hepatitis cases are a mystery - but they are beginning to see a clear pattern between an adenovirus and perhaps another virus infecting concurrently on naive immune systems as my GP recently explained. Many children’s immune systems are very vulnerable following two years of hand sanitising, masks and not mixing - all for a disease they are not at risk from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,653 ✭✭✭walus


    There is a good correlation between adeno-associated virus + adeno or herpes virus be the cause of the hepatitis. There is also a genetic factor which would suggest that about 15% of people would be at risk if infected with such.

    There is another interesting thing going on in the background that many are not aware of. The excess deaths.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics#Excess_mortality_in_the_EU_between_January_2020_and_May_2022

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/8/8c/Tab01_Excess_Mortality_2022_May.png

    They have spotted this in UK and are conducting a thorough investigation into the cause. As these are not due to covid, one hypothesis is that this is due to a lack of care (no access or delayed access to healthcare). Another is that it is to do with the vaccines as they seem to be thinking that time intervals (12-14 weeks) between the vaccine rollouts in various cohorts correlate with excess deaths in those cohorts would suggest that. All vaccinated cohorts appear to be affected. Very strange.

    Here in Ireland we have had +19% and +13% excess deaths over the last two months. Surely that cannot be due to covid at this point.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,357 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Not that this is anything to do with this topic, but there is no benefit for children to be vaccinated against covid, unless they are in a high risk category, and medical professionals trying to castigate parents for not doing so, as you are doing in that post, is having the opposite of the intended effect and turning parents off vaccines completely. Public health authorities and their strong arm approach of mandates and vaccine passports for a vaccine with a higher rate of side effects than usual and that doesn't even stop transmission is entirely to blame for this so maybe it is public health authorities who should be asking themselves the questions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭jackboy


    More and more parents were refusing to vaccinate their children long before covid. The vaccines causes autism lie really accelerated that pattern. I found that it was the highly educated middle classes that really turned against vaccines. The same sorts of people who think acupuncture and homeopathy are real treatments.

    Trying to push the covid vaccine on children was a terrible idea, especially as it raged through the schools and pretty much every child in Ireland was exposed with extremely low effects on the healthy.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    I don't think I agree with your first statement there.

    But what I will say is that I know plenty of parents who are well educated professionals, so-called middle class, who are not running to vaccinate their kids for covid.These are kids who are fully vaccinated otherwise - in many cases beyond the normal, with parents having paid extra to get Meningitis and Chicken pox vaccines.The parents themselves have 3 covid vaccines - but they are very wary of vaccinating their kids for covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 568 ✭✭✭72sheep


    From quite early on, it was clear the effects of lockdown would outdo Covid. This is especially so in Ireland seeing as we were so "trusting" that our "Covid deaths" were minimal. (For your reward lickle boys and girls, give yourselves a well-earned round of applause and go wave flags at a parade.) 

    Years ago we all heard about that study that showed it was impossible to flatter someone too much. Now we have a study at mammoth scale that shows you cannot scare people too much; they just get more and more and more obediently docile. However, with so much obvious care in abundance, what could possibly go wrong ;-)



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