What will happen in the North

Sunny Disposition · 06-05-2022 9:29am #1

if SF get most seats but unionists block Michelle O'Neill from becoming First Minister?

It's very hard to see any hope for partition ever being a success if unionism won't accept voters putting in a republican. It'd definitely be a long term own goal, but they might still block it.

keeponhurling · 06-05-2022 9:33am

I wonder what the "Democratic" Unionist Party will do here....

06-05-2022 9:33am

Same thing as happened with paisley,

unionists will have the proverbial gun at their head and be let choose between sharing power or joint dublin/london rule.....easy enough to soften them clowns

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30305225.html

fly_agaric · 06-05-2022 9:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119022289#Comment_119022289

It's a very different time now. There is no way the current British Nationalist UK govt. would allow Ireland next nor near having any say in the running of NI.

So it would be a period of direct rule. The UK govt. certainly doesn't care what voters in NI think or who they vote for anyway. They have their "team" up there (DUP/loyalists) that will support their fights with the EU (the most important thing), and that's about as far as their reflection on NI goes.

Quitelife · 06-05-2022 9:45am

Fairly Simple- Sinn Fein will get the most seats and the DUP will refuse to go back to executive to prevent Sinn Fein becoming First Minister.

The DUP want a apartheid system that no fenian will ever be top dog regardless of Elections or Demographics, an Old South Africa type set up.

Calahonda52 · 06-05-2022 9:49am

direct rule/hard border/ back to '69/ Russian support for IRA

Sunny Disposition · 06-05-2022 2:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119022334#Comment_119022334

If they won't accept a result a First Minister from the party the majority of Catholics are going to vote for, it seems to me that Catholics can't be expected to accept that NI can be made to work. I would think it'd make the case for having a border poll sooner rather than later.

Furze99 · 06-05-2022 3:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058244669/what-will-happen-in-the-north

Maybe, but it's also very hard to see any hope for a 'border poll' and a UI ever being a success too................

Atlantic Dawn · 06-05-2022 3:07pm

I'd like it to be set up as a 100% independent EU state, who would pay for it is an entirely different story 😁

Quitelife · 06-05-2022 4:21pm

Sinn Fein get 64% of the vote in West Belfast , 4 out of the 5 seats, serious percentage vote

All constituency have 5 seats this is The only constituency to see one party get 4 of the 5 seats.

Quitelife · 06-05-2022 4:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024089#Comment_119024089

A partioned Ireland hasnt been a success either!!

We always seem to worry about how the Unionists could survive in a United Ireland, we never seem to discuss how 750,000 Nationalists have put up with so much crap over the last hundred years since we hung them out to dry in 1922!

Furze99 · 06-05-2022 4:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024448#Comment_119024448

Yep.. so back to direct rule for NI. We/ they are clearly not politically mature enough yet to discuss and agree how to share the island and it's institutions.

The corrosive nationalist view is as bad as the daft unionist position.

Maybe in another generation or two.

Quitelife · 06-05-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024480#Comment_119024480

If i was a young nationalist up there i wouldnt be willing to wait for another generation or two!

nigeldaniel · 06-05-2022 6:51pm

What will happen up North, plenty of photos ops and plenty more grand statements, after all that, not much will happen. The problem with politics up north is the place was set up to appraise two fundamentalist opposing sides. They never got anything done in the past and will not any day soon.

Funkfield · 06-05-2022 6:59pm

(double post)

Funkfield · 06-05-2022 7:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024448#Comment_119024448

"we....."

firemansam4 · 07-05-2022 2:03pm

If anything I think this election shows that a UI is still very far away.

If we look at the polling percentages, it seems that there is a fairly even split amongs unionist and nationalist parties, unionist maybe a slightly higher share of the vote. Then the rest independents and Alliance.

I would imagine in a border poll that most of the Alliance voters would also vote to remain in the union. So going by that I can only see a border poll going one way.

I actually dont understand why Sinn fein are pushing so hard for a border poll now when everything suggests that it will return a vote to stay in the Union, IMO then such a result would embolden the more hardline unionists. And would probably set any chance of a UI in the future further back.

Brucie Bonus · 07-05-2022 2:43pm

Its great that more moderate voices are being heard. The border poll thing is a myth perpetrated by critics of SF. I highly doubt a border poll is the main reason any meaningful number of people voted in the election.

They will likely push for it but I don't think its suddenly the most important thing for the electorate and all those who voted SF.

Economics will pass or deny a UI.

skimpydoo · 08-05-2022 12:52am

If the SDLP and the Alliance party supported Michelle O'Neil she would be First Minister and you could see a government with no Unionists involved. That's if the Good Friday Agreement allows for this.

Loafing Oaf · 08-05-2022 1:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027903#Comment_119027903

I actually dont understand why Sinn fein are pushing so hard for a border poll now when everything suggests that it will return a vote to stay in the Union, IMO then such a result would embolden the more hardline unionists. And would probably set any chance of a UI in the future further back.

Depends on how close the result is. The defeat of the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum didn't kill that cause because it was only 55% no; SNP apparently planning to hold another one next year. Anything north of 45% yes in the north for a UI referendum would keep the issue alive and I think would justify the exercise from SF's POV.

Sunny Disposition · 08-05-2022 1:12am

For the South, where I live, the big message is that a border poll is coming. Not immediately, but it will have happened, and quite possibly passed, within ten years.

Not preparing for it is an act of moral cowardice. It’s going to happen before full reconciliation does. That’s unfortunate, but it’s reality.

briany · 08-05-2022 1:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030524#Comment_119030524

A Border Poll doesn't happen until such time as the NI Secretary decides it will likely pass. How the NI Sec decides this, exactly, isn't well defined in the GFA, but that's the rule.

Therefore Sinn Fein need not say a word about a UI, but rather to work to make it desirable for a majority of voters in NI.

newmember2 · 08-05-2022 2:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030549#Comment_119030549

"...How the NI Sec decides this, exactly, isn't well defined in the GFA..."

Capt'n Midnight · 08-05-2022 10:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030502#Comment_119030502

https://education.niassembly.gov.uk/post_16/the_assembly_and_executive Following an election, the largest party nominates the First Minister and the largest party in the second largest community nominates the deputy First Minister. AFAIK labour made that rule change.

The DUP have 25 seats and are the largest party in the second largest community.On the first day the Assembly meets after an election, MLAs sign the Register and designate themselves as ‘nationalist’ or ‘unionist’.

If the UUP or SDLP decide to redesignate as 'others' like Alliance that could be interesting, a third community if allowed would outflank the DUP.

is_that_so · 08-05-2022 10:55am

A functioning NI Assembly one would hope is what happens and that they don't just fire themselves again. As for the border poll, well how often have SF not stoked the idea of one? Their timing is off. We might see one in 10 years or it could be 20, but not 5. It may be defeated at that time too. It will come down to showing an ability to work together as adults first.

Bayonet · 08-05-2022 1:38pm

The funny thing is that while the terrorist war was happening, the British were resolute about holding onto NI. Every Brit was quite passionate about it.

These days? apart from some pockets in Scotland, I've not met anyone who has strong views on it. If NI went to Ireland there would be a mass shrug of the shoulders by the British public.

Obviously the allies in NI wouldn't be happy, but the simple fact is that it doesn't seem to stir the passions any longer. I'd say the Brits are more interested in keeping the Falklands and Gibraltar.

I've got no evidence, just my feel talking to people.

Strumms · 08-05-2022 1:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023919#Comment_119023919

DUP might want to be careful.. if they abstain from carrying out their democratic mandate that egg that they sit on might crack…it already is I feel.

if and when a border poll happens with the outcome in favour of a United Ireland ….I’d image months of carnage….

is_that_so · 08-05-2022 4:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031779#Comment_119031779

Such a poll presupposes a functioning NI. We are nowhere near that yet at all. It also presupposes a SF government who can bring it to the people. We on this part of the island tend to be quite cautious about saying Yes to things in referenda, so just announcing one doesn't mean it will pass.

Sadler Peak · 08-05-2022 4:33pm

It will remain part of the United Kingdom. Thank goodness.

briany · 08-05-2022 4:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031779#Comment_119031779

Sinn Fein won't be wanting a border poll any time soon. It's not up to them whether one happens anyway, and the NI Sec can easily judge from looking at the vote shares that a border poll would be quite unlikely to return a vote for a United Ireland any time soon.

But the DUP, those ever-reliable masters of political strategy, are doing their level best to fall for every trap laid to hasten their most feared eventuality, and Sinn Fein are laughing their heads off. Sinn Fein know that all they have to do is sit back, fold their arms, watch the DUP throw tantrum after tantrum, watch Unionism fight with itself and bleed voters to the AP. Sure, Sinn Fein would like those voters for their own, but they know it won't happen. Simply having hard Unionism shrivel up as a political force in NI will be a worthy second prize for SF, though.

trashcan · 08-05-2022 5:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031124#Comment_119031124

The SDLP you could conceivably imagine doing this (though I wouldn’t say it’s likely.) No UUP leader would risk it however. Just look at the flak Beattie got for declining to attend any further protocol protests.

What will happen in the North

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