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What will happen in the North

  • 06-05-2022 9:29am
    Registered Users Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭ Sunny Disposition

    if SF get most seats but unionists block Michelle O'Neill from becoming First Minister?

    It's very hard to see any hope for partition ever being a success if unionism won't accept voters putting in a republican. It'd definitely be a long term own goal, but they might still block it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,766 ✭✭✭ keeponhurling

    I wonder what the "Democratic" Unionist Party will do here....

  • Same thing as happened with paisley,

    unionists will have the proverbial gun at their head and be let choose between sharing power or joint dublin/london rule.....easy enough to soften them clowns

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,362 ✭✭✭ fly_agaric

    It's a very different time now. There is no way the current British Nationalist UK govt. would allow Ireland next nor near having any say in the running of NI.

    So it would be a period of direct rule. The UK govt. certainly doesn't care what voters in NI think or who they vote for anyway. They have their "team" up there (DUP/loyalists) that will support their fights with the EU (the most important thing), and that's about as far as their reflection on NI goes.

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,281 ✭✭✭✭ Calahonda52

    direct rule/hard border/ back to '69/ Russian support for IRA

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,429 ✭✭✭ Furze99

    Maybe, but it's also very hard to see any hope for a 'border poll' and a UI ever being a success too................

  • Registered Users Posts: 75,085 ✭✭✭✭ Atlantic Dawn

    I'd like it to be set up as a 100% independent EU state, who would pay for it is an entirely different story 😁

  • Registered Users Posts: 520 ✭✭✭ Quitelife

    Sinn Fein get 64% of the vote in West Belfast , 4 out of the 5 seats, serious percentage vote

    All constituency have 5 seats this is The only constituency to see one party get 4 of the 5 seats.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 520 ✭✭✭ Quitelife

    If i was a young nationalist up there i wouldnt be willing to wait for another generation or two!

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,303 ✭✭✭ nigeldaniel

    What will happen up North, plenty of photos ops and plenty more grand statements, after all that, not much will happen. The problem with politics up north is the place was set up to appraise two fundamentalist opposing sides. They never got anything done in the past and will not any day soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭ Funkfield

    (double post)

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭ Funkfield

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭ firemansam4

    If anything I think this election shows that a UI is still very far away.

    If we look at the polling percentages, it seems that there is a fairly even split amongs unionist and nationalist parties, unionist maybe a slightly higher share of the vote. Then the rest independents and Alliance.

    I would imagine in a border poll that most of the Alliance voters would also vote to remain in the union. So going by that I can only see a border poll going one way.

    I actually dont understand why Sinn fein are pushing so hard for a border poll now when everything suggests that it will return a vote to stay in the Union, IMO then such a result would embolden the more hardline unionists. And would probably set any chance of a UI in the future further back.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,189 ✭✭✭ Brucie Bonus

    Its great that more moderate voices are being heard. The border poll thing is a myth perpetrated by critics of SF. I highly doubt a border poll is the main reason any meaningful number of people voted in the election.

    They will likely push for it but I don't think its suddenly the most important thing for the electorate and all those who voted SF.

    Economics will pass or deny a UI.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,728 ✭✭✭ skimpydoo

    If the SDLP and the Alliance party supported Michelle O'Neil she would be First Minister and you could see a government with no Unionists involved. That's if the Good Friday Agreement allows for this.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,523 ✭✭✭✭ Loafing Oaf

    I actually dont understand why Sinn fein are pushing so hard for a border poll now when everything suggests that it will return a vote to stay in the Union, IMO then such a result would embolden the more hardline unionists. And would probably set any chance of a UI in the future further back.

    Depends on how close the result is. The defeat of the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum didn't kill that cause because it was only 55% no; SNP apparently planning to hold another one next year. Anything north of 45% yes in the north for a UI referendum would keep the issue alive and I think would justify the exercise from SF's POV.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭ Sunny Disposition

    For the South, where I live, the big message is that a border poll is coming. Not immediately, but it will have happened, and quite possibly passed, within ten years.

    Not preparing for it is an act of moral cowardice. It’s going to happen before full reconciliation does. That’s unfortunate, but it’s reality.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,038 ✭✭✭✭ briany

    A Border Poll doesn't happen until such time as the NI Secretary decides it will likely pass. How the NI Sec decides this, exactly, isn't well defined in the GFA, but that's the rule.

    Therefore Sinn Fein need not say a word about a UI, but rather to work to make it desirable for a majority of voters in NI.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭ newmember2

    "...How the NI Sec decides this, exactly, isn't well defined in the GFA..."

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 85,745 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight Following an election, the largest party nominates the First Minister and the largest party in the second largest community nominates the deputy First Minister. AFAIK labour made that rule change.

    The DUP have 25 seats and are the largest party in the second largest community.On the first day the Assembly meets after an election, MLAs sign the Register and designate themselves as ‘nationalist’ or ‘unionist’.

    If the UUP or SDLP decide to redesignate as 'others' like Alliance that could be interesting, a third community if allowed would outflank the DUP.

  • Registered Users Posts: 32,140 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so

    A functioning NI Assembly one would hope is what happens and that they don't just fire themselves again. As for the border poll, well how often have SF not stoked the idea of one? Their timing is off. We might see one in 10 years or it could be 20, but not 5. It may be defeated at that time too. It will come down to showing an ability to work together as adults first.

  • Registered Users Posts: 894 ✭✭✭ Bayonet

    The funny thing is that while the terrorist war was happening, the British were resolute about holding onto NI. Every Brit was quite passionate about it.

    These days? apart from some pockets in Scotland, I've not met anyone who has strong views on it. If NI went to Ireland there would be a mass shrug of the shoulders by the British public.

    Obviously the allies in NI wouldn't be happy, but the simple fact is that it doesn't seem to stir the passions any longer. I'd say the Brits are more interested in keeping the Falklands and Gibraltar.

    I've got no evidence, just my feel talking to people.

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,925 ✭✭✭✭ Strumms

    DUP might want to be careful.. if they abstain from carrying out their democratic mandate that egg that they sit on might crack…it already is I feel.

    if and when a border poll happens with the outcome in favour of a United Ireland ….I’d image months of carnage….

  • Registered Users Posts: 32,140 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so

    Such a poll presupposes a functioning NI. We are nowhere near that yet at all. It also presupposes a SF government who can bring it to the people. We on this part of the island tend to be quite cautious about saying Yes to things in referenda, so just announcing one doesn't mean it will pass.

  • Registered Users Posts: 214 ✭✭ Sadler Peak

    It will remain part of the United Kingdom. Thank goodness.

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,038 ✭✭✭✭ briany

    Sinn Fein won't be wanting a border poll any time soon. It's not up to them whether one happens anyway, and the NI Sec can easily judge from looking at the vote shares that a border poll would be quite unlikely to return a vote for a United Ireland any time soon.

    But the DUP, those ever-reliable masters of political strategy, are doing their level best to fall for every trap laid to hasten their most feared eventuality, and Sinn Fein are laughing their heads off. Sinn Fein know that all they have to do is sit back, fold their arms, watch the DUP throw tantrum after tantrum, watch Unionism fight with itself and bleed voters to the AP. Sure, Sinn Fein would like those voters for their own, but they know it won't happen. Simply having hard Unionism shrivel up as a political force in NI will be a worthy second prize for SF, though.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,580 ✭✭✭ trashcan

    The SDLP you could conceivably imagine doing this (though I wouldn’t say it’s likely.) No UUP leader would risk it however. Just look at the flak Beattie got for declining to attend any further protocol protests.