Stormont Election 2022

Icemancometh · 07-05-2022 1:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027673#Comment_119027673

I've no idea in this instance, but sometimes they do counts to see if someone can get enough votes for expenses.

Edit: sorry, I misunderstood you there. No idea.

BaywatchHQ · 07-05-2022 2:38pm

I don't vote due to my general misanthropy and dislike of individual politicians but if I had to I would have voted Aontu. Maybe I should spoil my ballot sheet at elections. I can't vote Sinn Fein due to their ultra feminist image nowadays and their general far left agenda. I don't really have a party to vote for. It also disgusted me what that Sinn Fein woman said in one of her historical tweets about "looking like a retard". I don't care if she was 19 when she made it, people who use phrases like that aren't what I want to be voting for.

breezy1985 · 07-05-2022 4:39pm

Looking almost certain for SF 28 DUP 25

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 6:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027673#Comment_119027673

This is still bamboozling me. If you look at the total number of votes by each count the number of votes should always be equal or lower in every subsequent round - that's because extra ballots cannot be added into the system after Count 1, but they can be removed from the count in the case where they are non-transferrable.

Here's how the Total progresses by count (Note: If someone gets elected their vote total = the Quota in subsequent rounds to avoid double counting their surplus votes):

40,865
40,550
40,393
40,348
40,300
40,289
40,286
40,423
39,238

So in that mysterious Count 8 an additional 137 votes appear out of nowhere and are distributed to the 4 remaining candidates:

Nesbitt (+7)
Cooper (+2)
Houston (+21)
Mathison (+107)

This makes absolutely no sense but it was pivotal as Mathison leap-frogged Houston who was eliminated and Mathison was subsequently elected on the back of his transfers.

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 6:46pm

I looked up the official results site and found a spreadsheet showing the various stages. It explains how the figures add up but honestly it throws up even more questions than answers.

So, it seems that although Kellie Armstrong was elected on Count 1, they waited until Count 8 to distribute her surplus. They distributed the surpluses of the two DUP candidates, who were elected after her, before they distributed her surplus - that doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me. It does resolve the issue with the extra ballots appearing out of nowhere though - I had assumed that Armstrong's votes were distributed after Round #1

Edit: I think the way it must work is that her surplus was so small (204 votes) that it wouldn't have been enough, at any earlier stage, to bridge the gap between any of the lower order candidates. Instead they just eliminated them one by one and transferred their votes. After Round 7 the gap between the two lowest candidates (46 votes) was suddenly lower than her surplus so at that point they distributed it rather than eliminating the last place candidate.

I might be wrong but I don't believe they would have done it this way in an election in the Republic. I think they would have done the surplus and eliminations together after Count #1.

L1011 · 07-05-2022 7:05pm

edit after seeing the answer was on a page I missed:

No, we would have done the same thing here - you don't merge surpluses with elimination votes and you use the highest amount of votes available to transfer at a time. In this case it was the dual elimination.

Sometimes small surpluses never get transferred as they could never actually change the result.

retalivity · 07-05-2022 7:05pm

Cara Hunter was re-elected, lovely stuff.

petronius · 07-05-2022 7:08pm

Sad to see so many constituencies with NO Nationalist representatives now, East Antrim, East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley & North Down. especially losing nationalists in lagan valley and upper bann

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 8:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029182#Comment_119029182

If the non-designated parties are going to gain then it stands to reason that this is going to come at the cost of both nationalist and unionist seats. I believe that it's for the best in the long run that that happens. Having SF with the most seats is also good in that now it's no longer the elephant in the room and just another bridge crossed on the road to Northern Irish politics becoming less dysfunctional.

Sam Russell · 07-05-2022 9:23pm

I was looking at the Belfast Telegraph results where it shows every count. Now, it appears to be counting fractions of a vote.

That is not how we do it. No wonder it is taking a lot longer to count.

Charrychar · 07-05-2022 9:41pm

Sinn Fein taking power in Ireland, they started with a few rusty WW2 weapons in 1969 and now they are the most popular party in Ireland North and South.

Amazing how far they have come.

Mr.Nice Guy · 07-05-2022 10:33pm

Delighted that the TUV didn't get more than one seat. Jim Allister gets a disgracefully disproportionate amount of radio time on the Nolan show and no doubt will be there on the BBC on Monday.

bricksNDmortar · 07-05-2022 10:45pm

What a bloody 2 days. Absolutely delighted for every candidate who took the plunge knocking doors for Caral and GK the last few weeks.

Continual growth, North and South.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029812#Comment_119029812

They transfer % of the votes/surpluses, not actual votes like we do - hence didn't they transfer a "zero" vote the geeks in the BBC I studio were salivating at it.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:14pm

I think it is bad to not have a nationalist presence in constituencies east of the bann, alliance are soft unionists, did they not designate themselves such once to bail out davey trimble

Pussyhands · 07-05-2022 11:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030255#Comment_119030255

This is something I asked before and no one gave me an answer on how votes are transferred.

In the South, if someone has a surplus, do they count all second preference votes and the distribute as a % of the surplus?

And how are votes transferred when there are people excluded? Do they look at all 2nd,3rd etc votes of all candidates and distribute the percentages amongst the total votes of the one voted out?

L1011 · 07-05-2022 11:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030281#Comment_119030281

On the first count, we count the lot and divide by the proportion

On every other count, they're taken off the top of the stack.

When excluded, the votes just go on what's next. There is no need to figure anything out, every single paper is moved.

We do however do fractional transfers for the Seanad vocational panel elections due to tiny electorates - the votes are multiplied by a thousand to avoid using decimal points!

Pussyhands · 07-05-2022 11:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030293#Comment_119030293

That seems like a bit of luck involved so, some regions could vary a lot.

I still get confused. When the first person is eliminated are all second preference votes of those remaining counted and then the votes are distributed as a % of the eliminated persons votes?

Or is it only second preference votes of the eliminated candidate?

And if its a % of the eliminated candidates votes, is it % of the total valid votes or is it % of total votes, i.e eliminated candidates votes are excluded

L1011 · 07-05-2022 11:33pm

When a person is eliminated, every single vote is moved to the next person down. They are eliminated, the votes have nowhere else to go.

If those votes were first or eleven thousandth preference, they just move down.

No % stuff comes in to play. When eliminated, ALL your votes go to the next person down. If there is one.

Splitting stuff up only applies to surpluses when elected.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:46pm

The funniest thing I heard from the Stormont Election when things looked worse for the UUP was, would there be any UUP MLA who had not already been leader! ( I think 1/2 of them have been now, Swann, Nesbitt, Elliot, Agnew )

As it is always a sectarian headcount

I make it 37 Unionists ( DUP/UUP/TUV/Sugdon/Easton)

and 35 Nationalists (SF/SDLP)

The Brexit supporting PBP more Nationalist than say the Socialist Party

Sam Russell · 07-05-2022 11:50pm

The problem only arises from a surplus.

Say A gets 1.5 quota, and party member B get .01 of a quota, then it i reasonable to process the surplus otherwise B would be eliminated. After surplus distribution, B might have .5 of a quota.

The votes are spilled from the ballot box and all mixed up to randomise the votes so they are in no order. This means that any selection of surplus votes are representative. After the first count, eliminated votes move down the choice, and the excess is taken from these votes.

I do not understand where the fraction of votes comes from in the North.

L1011 · 07-05-2022 11:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030366#Comment_119030366

They calculate out the exact proportion of next preferences and that's where the fractions come from. You could have a surplus of one vote and they will calculate out the proportion of your next preferences (lets ignore that a surplus of one is unlikely to ever become effective).

Its the exact same way we do Seanad vocational panels, except we hide the decimal by making each vote become 1000 votes.

Loafing Oaf · 07-05-2022 11:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030352#Comment_119030352

Don't think I'd pick any UUP leader since Empey out of a lineup...

Larbre34 · 08-05-2022 12:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030366#Comment_119030366

It's just a function of the transparency. They are calculated as a proportion in the Republic too, but only the roundings are announced for each count stage in our elections. Seems daft to do otherwise.

Larbre34 · 08-05-2022 12:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030146#Comment_119030146

How sweet it is.

17 for Alliance is an absolutely outrageous conversion rate. Many congratulations to them.

L1011 · 08-05-2022 12:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030390#Comment_119030390

You'd recognise Nesbitt from TV, if old enough and you lived in UTV-land not HTV-land.

I'd not know Empey from anyone else, could probably get Swann and maybe Beattie. Maybe.

pixelburp · 08-05-2022 6:51am

So quick napkin math says there's 52 definite pro-Protocol heads (SF, Alliance and SDLP), so that leaves the UUP who are all over the place so who knows. A majority pro Protocol Executive should be the end of it, but we all know it won't be.

At the rate the DUP blows a gasket Infront of the NI electorate, if we're here again in 6 months for a rerun, I'd not be at all shocked at SF/Alliance majority. I'd be a little surprised mind you, cos sectarianism is a hard drug to drop. You'd hope the Alliance would hit those DUP heartlands hard.

Sam Russell · 08-05-2022 9:56am

So after the earth shattering new dawn, SF on the same number of seats, DUP down 3, Alliance up 9, UUP down 1, SDLP down 4. Nationalist vote 38%, down 4 seats. Unionist vote 40%. down 4 seats.

So what has changed? No breakthrough for SF. No good news for DUP, but not meltdown.

Well, we are in for six months on stasis, while the DUP leader keeps his arse welded to his seat in Westminster as he cocks a snook at his bigoted voters in NI, fixated by the false aim of getting rid of the protocol.

Then what? Another election or direct rule, no money for the poor from the magic inflation fund, as the Tories concentrate on keeping Big Dog in power, and while the food banks begin to proliferate all over their green uplands, populated by unicorns.

Not to worry, Biden is due here soon.

Christy42 · 08-05-2022 11:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031021#Comment_119031021

A nationalist as the biggest party is still historic. Even with Unionism split a bit to cause it the countries borders were literally chosen to stop that from ever happening so it is an historic event. Obviously the DUP are not going to play ball and run a democracy because that isn't what they are about. In addition a very much pro protocol majority in the North makes it harder to remove. Anytime the British come up now it can be pointed out that the people of Northern Ireland have voted in favour of it staying it pretty emphatic fashion.

pixelburp · 08-05-2022 11:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031021#Comment_119031021

It's historic in its own right because it validates the nationalist voice as both authentic and significant enough to (co)run a government. As I said before all SF need to do is stay the course, speak in positive, inclusive language and let the DUP flounder their way to another election (and you'd hope further vote losses). Of the two largest parties only one seems to care about the Norths here and now. If SF can avoid getting dragged into constant asks about a Border Poll from the currently fascinated UK press, then they're set to be seen as the main States-people in the Nortth.

Stormont Election 2022

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