Stormont Election 2022

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030271#Comment_119030271

You're calling them soft Unioninsts. Sammy Wilson was accusing them of being Nationalists. That's probably a good indicator that they're neither.

It's like the way that the right in the UK accuse the BBC of being far-left and the left accuse them of being far-right.

cj maxx

I find it typical of the dup to refuse to be part of a government with SF. Again its a case of its our ball and if you don't play by our rules we're taking the ball home. Fcuking pathetic

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031298#Comment_119031298

If you are not against the continuation of the Union, are you not a unionist by inaction more than ideological commitment.

Sam Russell

The vote only goes to show that the tribalist vote has reduced from 100% to 78%. It needs to reduce further - even below 50% for NI moves towards democratic politics.

There cannot be a united Ireland before there is a united NI, and that will only come when that tribalism reduces to about 50%. The hatred that Loyalists have towards nationalists need to abate significantly before such a change can happen.

Triumphalism from both sides works against this, and SF shouting about a border poll does nothing but inflame this, and the more they shout, the more likely such a poll will fail. If they want a poll, they should make certain it will pass when it happens. As Tipp O'Neil maintained - only take a vote when you have the votes.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031326#Comment_119031326

I think the fact that they tend not to focus on those larger issues makes it easy for both sides to say that clearly they are on the other side. All of the Unionist parties opposed the Protocol. The Alliance party did not so the DUP and TUV are labelling them as Nationalists because for them it can only ever be a zero-sum game.

I had a look at their manifesto for this election and it neither mentioned the Union nor a border poll. Basically they're the party for people who are sick to death of having the same conversation over and over.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031414#Comment_119031414

SF know a border poll within the next decade would fail. It's about placating their more unreconstructed supporters, giving the impression they are 'doing something' about Irish unity, which is supposedly their raison d'etre. Anything over 45% yes could be spun as a victory as it would ensure the issue remains 'live' and would justify calling another poll in ten years or whatever.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119031414#Comment_119031414

What does a united NI mean? Unionists ceasing to be unionists? There will never be a united NI because the entity was created to provide an artificial majority for unionists to reign supreme. The likes of Jim Allister, the DUP, loyalists, Orange Order etc. aren't interested in uniting NI because they view every step towards equality as a step towards surrender. Even the supposedly moderate Doug Beattie can't bring himself to support Irish language legislation.

The problem with the 'let's make NI work' narrative that soft unionists and Alliance like to trot out is that it ultimately begs the question: why should a society built on fairness, equality, cooperation and so forth - as great as it sounds - be limited to an arbitrary 6 county region devised in a smoky room by a bunch of men 101 years ago? Why can't it be had on a 32 county basis?

Sam Russell

Well, yes. But it has often been said that Loyalists are more loyal to the half-crown than the Crown. It has to be seen as in their economic interest to join a very successful Ireland and that hay can see they will be welcome on an equal basis. Unfortunately, the do not believe in either equality or democracy.

firemansam4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032198#Comment_119032198

The numbers do not even show that their is up to 45% support yet either.

If we go by the election poll results, Nationalist parties got a share of just over 38% of the vote, now maybe a small percentage of Alliance may also vote for a UI, but I would say at best a UI poll may get 40% at the highest, going by the support in the assembly elections anyway.

IMO it would only damage any cause for a UI if a poll was held within the next 5 years.

O'Neill

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgBMx2Lh1j4

Absolute mess of a situation. It's been about 6 years now since the Brexit referendum.....

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119035180#Comment_119035180

Groundhog Day as always when it comes to the British Government and the NI protocol; maybe they should implement a hot air baloon factory at this stage considering how much hot air they are blowing out about it...

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119035180#Comment_119035180

6 years of working at pace! For the people of Northern Ireland and putting their only objective as placating a minority of voters in NI.

Sam Russell

If the UK had implemented the WA including the NI protocol as agreed, it would be apparent what parts were not working. However, they have refused to implement customs controls on imports from the EU, and refused to implement inspections of goods and animals going from GB to NI. They have refused the EU access to the data they would need to oversee the (lack of) inspections. The UK Gov are continuing to backslide, while falsely accusing the EU of intransigence - like a sketch from Monty Python or Faulty Towers or even Yes Minister.

Now, if this was happening with a local authority, it would be considered childish and grandstanding - which of course that is exactly what it is. The EU need to call this out and force the issue with real deadlines and actual sanctions.

Edit: Just to add on the above.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ni-election-2022/2022/0509/1296874-ireland-north/

pixelburp

Relax guys, we don't need the Protocol anyway because .... *checks notes* .... uh, the Ukrainian refugees got in without checks. This is just going to drag on and on and on, isn't it? Beattie's in the minority opinion within the 90 members of the Executive and yet he seems too cowardly to stand up for common sense. I don't doubt SOME businesses have struggled with checks now between GB and NI but I refuse to believe this constitutes a majority situation.

https://www.thejournal.ie/doug-beattie-protocol-5758524-May2022/

Sam Russell

What would we check the Ukrainian refugees for - smuggled sunflowers or wheat born disease? People are not subject to checks at the NI/GB border.

petronius

Is there something wrong with an election system which allocated 1 seat for the TUV with over 7% of the vote and 17 seats for the alliance with less than 1/2 that with over 13%?

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036145#Comment_119036145

Those percentages are only for first preferences, things get far more complicated once you get into allocating 2nd preferences and beyond as people are elected or eliminated and arent as easy to distill down into basic percentages. But basically the Alliance were far more transfer friendly than the TUV which isn't that surprising.

If you want to see a really undemocratic voting system check out first past the post used in England for both Council and MP elections, that full thread has some awful examples of why it shouldnt be used and then compares it to Scotland who use STV like ourselves and NI and you will see its far more representative.

https://twitter.com/electoralreform/status/1522531687778955264

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036145#Comment_119036145

Alliance received significant volumes of later preferences. TUV absolutely did not.

Under FPTP, TUV wouldn't have that single seat probably.

retalivity

TUV have their loons spread all over the North, the only one with enough concentration in a constituency (and visibility) is Jim Mór.

Alliance provided a safe haven for votes from Unionists and young people fed up with the DUP/TUV/Anti-EU or NIP rhetoric. Interestingly, they didn't win any seats west of the Bann.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036225#Comment_119036225

As the Alliance member said on BBC a few days ago. They naturally align with SF on a number of social issues and the NIP. Young people don't need to be ashamed of voting SF/SDLP the way they do the Unionists.

masterK

Probably a dumb question but can somebody explain why SF, Alliance and the SDLP cannot form a government? They would have the relatively comfortable majority

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036406#Comment_119036406

The Northern Assembly doesn't run by conventional rules. Basically the government's are typically grand coalitions. It's a hold-over from the Good Friday agreement. They can't form a government without the DUP since they're the largest party that is designated as Unionist and will supply the Deputy First Minister.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036406#Comment_119036406

The Executive can only be made from the largest parties within the 2 biggest Designated Groupings: Nationalist, Unionist or "other". That being, SF and DUP in this case. The First Minister posts are technically jointly powerful, though the party with the few representatives has tended to be called "deputy first minister"

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036145#Comment_119036145

As others have said, the TUV and Aliiance are at the two ends of scale when it comes to how transfer-friendly they both are.

If the PR system was instead some kind of D'Hondt system then the TUV would have done a lot better.

Which is more fair? Well that depends on the criteria you use to define fairness. If it's purely who people's favourite party is then the TUV was hard done by. However if you're judging it on the basis of who people were generally content with, beyond their favourites, then they got exactly what they deserved for being a party that tends to alienate most of the electorate.

Personally I'd prefer a system that didn't cater to unpopular extremists so am happy with the way things turned out.

BluePlanet

The Alliance party can change all that by just declaring themselves Unionist. Everybody knows they are predominantly unionist already and the British government appears to consider them as thus.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036573#Comment_119036573

And as said before, they do this and watch their vote share crash into the ground as every Soft Nationalist and those sick to their back teeth of either/or departs. The status quo is union with GB anyway, but the Alliance party isn't wedding itself to one or the other; and if the Executive stalls further they could see their share creep up.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036605#Comment_119036605

Indeed we could easily see another election within the year and their Seats in that case would probably increase again. The worst thing they could do for themselves and NI is switch designation to unionist right now.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119036573#Comment_119036573

How would that help? They would be the second largest Unionist party and could do nothing to help form a government.

Sam Russell

The point about STV is that it gives the voters the chance of voting AGAINST a candidate or party. This is achieved by giving preferences to ALL other candidates, but none for those candidates disliked. This is widely followed in NI as Unionists tend to only vote Unionist and no other, and Nationalists likewise, which is why elections tend to be tribal headcounts. Alliance was founded as a way to break this mould - founded 52 years ago.

With FPTP, the voter can only vote FOR a candidate, or vote tactically. Of course such voting is blind, since it only works if the tactic is widely followed by likeminded voters. A very clumsy strategy, and far from democratic.

A similar tactic is vote management in STV. This is where party voters are urged to vote in a particular way to maximise the number of seats by keeping all party candidates in the hunt as long as possible. It can backfire if the number of candidates is too many, and/or the transfers do not go quite to plan.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119032204#Comment_119032204

Well, there are plenty of societies built on fairness, equality, cooperation and so forth that have been created on equally arbitrary ways ever since and some of them even smaller. So why can't it be done is the answer to that.

After all, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is probably the longest unchanged land border in Europe.