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NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,829 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Well, my own brother votes Alliance and is very much in the Irish/Nationalist camp. He’s of the view that unified cross-community politics is the key to the eventual unification of the country — i.e. a United Northern Ireland must exist before a United Ireland. Try as they might, it’s a dubious prospect that Sinn Fein will ever actually get people in the likes of North Down to start voting for them unless those voters get replaced by Nationalists via demographic changes. So, there are people in what I would call the ‘Patient Nationalism’ camp (as in, nationalists who would aspire towards eventual unification but whose politics are not defined by that and who are happy to make the status quo work for now) who see a vote for Alliance as a vote for a more mutually acceptable party across the traditional divide who will work constructively for NI and engage constructively with the Republic to further tear down the barriers.

    Another point I would make (which I don’t think is getting as much commentary as it merits) is that Unionist voters haven’t just gravitated towards Alliance because of the DUP’s idiotic intransigence on Brexit or because they are sick of the ‘Unionist’ label. Those are obviously likely factors for many, but I think the other factor here is liberalism. Nationalists have a liberal party in the form of Sinn Fein, who have been pro-active in recent years on things like gay marriage and abortion etc — but Unionists clearly don’t have that in the DUP. A new generation of liberal Unionists is out there, who don’t subscribe to the bible-thumping, gay-bashing Orangeism of their forebears — but the Unionist parties have failed to cater for millennial Unionists at all. Alliance gives them that without having to vote Nationalist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,918 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Interesting but I don't think it undermines my fundamental point that the the idea that rise of Alliance signals that Nordies of a Protestant/Unionist background are softening towards the Republic and some may be persuaded to vote for a UI is largely wishful thinking and that hence a UI via a Border Poll is likely still decades away



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,696 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    I thought the SDLP would have got more than 3 seats, SF did well but don't seem to have got the landslide they were expecting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,085 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    For all the talk of a UI, its nonsense.

    The same % of people voted for nationalists vs unionists in 1998 as today.

    Sure, 10% of SF voters would vote AGAINST a UI!


    If SF goes down the road of banging on about a border poll while they ignore their electorate on the day to day issues, which include the longest waiting lists in Europe and the poorest areas on the British Isles, they ill quickly be given the heave-ho.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    100% of sinn Fein voters know that their main objective is a United Ireland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,085 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Objective maybe, yet 10% of SF voters given the last big poll on a UI would vote to stay in the Union.

    Them the facts!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,696 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    I'm no shinner but in all fairness there isn't much they can do if the DUP won't enter Government with them, was listening to Donaldson on the BBC earlier on and he while he didn't come right out and say it its clear hasn't a notion of entering powersharing with them and will not agree to a SF FM



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,829 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    I think you’re right in some ways, but you also have to consider how the rise of Alliance (if it continues) affects the dynamic of cross-border politics. While integration between North and South has consistently deepened, a major impediment in that process has been the ideological entrenchment of political forces like the DUP who loathe Dublin and any involvement of Dublin in the affairs of the North or any other form of integration with the South — be it legal, political, economic or infrastructural. Indeed, this desire to keep ties severed was the source of the DUP’s disastrous miscalculation over Brexit.

    That just isn’t going to be the case with Alliance. They will seek engagement with the South, they will not be approaching all-island initiatives with ideological suspicion, they are not going to be injecting firebrand British nationalism or Ulster Loyalism into everything. They are going to push for what makes sense for NI, and cross-border cooperation and all-island alignment makes sense for NI - especially now that the UK has made it clear that NI is nothing more than an inconvenient anomaly to them that they can gradually remove from the equation by alienating it to the extent they can get away with.

    So I’d agree with you that Alliance voters aren’t just going to be UI voters in ten years, but we are definitely seeing a softening of Unionism even if still remains Unionism. But that softening is enough to imagine that we might be entering an era of further North South cooperation and integration — which may go some way in mitigating Unionist fears towards Dublin and indeed southern misgivings about those crazy Nordies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Who was expecting a landslide?

    It was always evident the DUP/TUV would scare voters into voting for them to keep SF out….they failed and now they will be on a world stage behaving as suprematists and bigots.

    How they think they are going to get a positive outcome for Unionism I cannot fathom.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I thought he said that without changes to the NIP , the DUP would not agree to form a government. It could well be that it's just a case of any old excuse not to form a government with Sinn Fein where SF is the largest party - a concept that must sicken Donaldson to his core and then down to his toes, but the reality of SF being the largest party would be undeniable. Refusing to form a government would only alienate the DUP even further from the ordinary people of NI who just want to get on with their lives, but as recent years have shown, the DUP cannot be said to be known for their political nous.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Good question from Feeney, what is the point of the place now?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,829 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    I do think it’s also worth pointing out, in response to the post you replied to, that Sinn Fein did in fairness actually put bread and butter issues at the forefront of their campaign. I didn’t give them my first preference vote but I would have to hand it to them, they got their tone right in this election and so far they are getting it right post-election.

    By getting the result they got, they have absolutely outmanoeuvred the DUP and have plopped them right into a total cluster**k of a dilemma. If the DUP refuse to enter government with SF, they will look anti-democratic and bigoted (which wouldn’t have mattered much of a damn to them for years but now they risk losing progressive Unionists to Alliance). It will also harden Nationalist resolve and evoke old feelings of Unionists wanting to alienate Catholics from influence. If they do a u-turn, they risk further electoral defection to the TUV and the reality of an Executive with strong SF and Alliance influence to contend with. If they push for scrapping the Protocol, they risk continuing on their recent path of delusional thinking on this which has made them look utterly idiotic to their moderate base — while also more or less unwittingly demonstrating for all the world to see just how happily Westminster will stab Loyal Ulster in the back at every turn.

    They are in an absolute hole, which they have entirely dug themselves into, and Sinn Fein have made hay. Seems like all they can do is push for some meaningless symbolic wording about the Protocol which they can hold up to their hardcore loyalist base as being something which means the Protocol is OK now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,356 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Lovely to see someone from the Alliance get a seat in north antrim and from interview patricia o lynn was hugely impressive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    TUV will only have one seat in the new assembly



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,918 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    Absolutely not.

    I'm very much "Irish" and voted alliance. Many people I know voted Alliance.

    You could say its a class divide - those with brain cells and who just despise the Unionism/Nationalism argument that is 30+ years past the best before date went with alliance. their candidates are also on the more intellectual side.


    And this is not a "win" for sinn fein. With DUP in tatters, and a huge jump in young voters they only increased their share of votes be a single point. They did not gain any seats either.

    Frankly it was a poor performance because they have done absolutely nothing for local people here that have really felt the hardships of higher prices, poor hospital care and drop in local services. Things sinn fein have done nothing about



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    God be with the days when Blanch didn't even know what Slugger was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Yeah, I think the basic story of this election has more been that a higher proportion of moderate DUP voters have gotten p*ssed off enough with their usual party to either vote Alliance or just stay home altogether.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Parties lose votes if they are not delivering. You point is a nonsense in that respect.

    Alliance now have to deliver for their electorate, let's see how they go. Let's see how they get on dealing with the intransigence and suprematism of the DUP



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Sure, he's not even going to take up his seat. He was squirming when Carruthers asked him about it. No chance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    "He’s of the view that unified cross-community politics is the key to the eventual unification of the country — i.e. a United Northern Ireland must exist before a United Ireland."

    And I think he's right on the money. We have a fair bit of experience with referendums in the Republic over the years. And the one thing that is apparent, is that the case for any referendum to pass must have a solid consistent substantial majority in opinion polls before any vote is put to the public. Inevitably during a campaign and when it comes to the actual vote, support fluctuates and usually wanes.

    In the context of any border poll, there's a huge amount of work and rebuilding of relationships for that to happen. There's plenty of posters on these pages who think a border poll/ referendum on Irish unity would be done and dusted with 50+1% majority up north. And that the southern electorate would roll in and buy it too. That's two big improbables at the moment anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    I dare say Alliance will do two things 1) sit back and watch the inevitable bun fight between SF & the DUP 2) campaign for a move away from the binary idea that either republicans or unionists should be the building blocks of a Stormont assembly.

    Would SF be in favour of the latter? Maybe but I'm not sure, the more influences you allow in at how things are run, the more you weaken your own party position. Would be viewed as a threat. On other hand, might allow for a way around a 'unionist veto' or a 'nationalist veto'......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 946 ✭✭✭bricksNDmortar


    I’ll enter a gentleman’s bet with you that DUP enter government. Cap and gown



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    It could end up 26 / 26 between DUP & sinn fein.

    Very slight chance though


    But if it did happen it would be a massive blow to sinn fein and an abject failure to capitalise on the much increased younger voter who very obviously went to the Alliance who could take 18 seat - way beyond their wildest imagination.


    I would love for this to be the end result. egg on face time



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,624 ✭✭✭votecounts


    I have counted a definite 27 seats for SF with another 2 possible elsewhere



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 946 ✭✭✭bricksNDmortar




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    27 max unless unionist transfers suddenly start going to sf.

    Only way of 26 would be TUV transfer going to sdlp in fermanagh/ST. Highly unlikely. :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 946 ✭✭✭bricksNDmortar


    I have potential 29 I think will be 28 thought



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭macvin


    If Gary Midleton gets through in Foyle, it may end up 27/27.


    damn - mis counted. Best DUP can get is 26



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Interesting question. I think it ultimately comes down to who the Alliance party takes more votes off of. Right now, they look to be hurting the DUP a bit worse, so I think the attitude from Sinn Fein towards the AP will be mildly positive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,721 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    unless SF end up with less seats than the DUP, then its clearly egg on face for the DUP



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Why do the DUP want to power share now all of a sudden, it never was power sharing or at least felt it anyway, unionists looking for identity crown British etc ugh



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    It's very interesting that there was no Tricolours 🇮🇪 or singing at the counts where SF won. SF know they need to make room for Alliance voters, and other moderates, to create a large progressive majority that will call for the Protocol to be worked, keep the integration of the N/S on track, and isolate the DUP.

    This also lays the groundwork for future elections, SF toning down the bravado is making it easier for young people from a PUL background, who are turned off by Unionist bigotry and sectarianism, to vote for Alliance/Greens etc.

    Unionism has been well-and-truly out-maneuvered and will continue to be because it can't help itself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,459 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I think I read an article during the week that if people switch parties before the first meeting, that they will count in the "new" party rather than the one they stood for (but their first pref. votes wouldn't go towards a tie-breaker)


    Any of the Nordies on here be able to speculate whether something like that might happen pr how likely it would be?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,696 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35



    Bryson is like a demon all day over on Twitter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,445 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Alliance are have seen polling gains mostly in the over 60s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,445 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It's all well and good going for the progressives but SF would not want to forget its working class base either.


    There are more voters than just off the Malone Rd.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    First of all congrats to all SF supporters here...

    Good day for Island ...



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Well it's official sein fein have won the election 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    But the ordinary people of NI don't vote for the DUP; bigoted chicken-littles' do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Are you gonna take that 10% from their vote or seat total to help you sleep better tonight?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    So as always Mark, you've nothing to fear from a border poll.

    Your Partitionist cohort will win it easily. Be grand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Why would you think that?

    They've yet again shown that they can't get over the horror of Séamus Mallon's Partitionism.

    They're going through a small death. The sooner the better they merge with Labour or FF or die. Their race is run.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,624 ✭✭✭votecounts


    Well the BBC has finally admitted that Northern Ireland was a Protestant State for a Protestant People, hopefully Unionists will wise up in the next election and continue to vote for the Moderate Alliance party and dump the Sectarian, Homophobic and Bigoted Unionist parties



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    This result will change the course of Irish politics... FF/FG cosy likttle arrangement will finish with UI... there will be less people in a United Ireland dail and less jobs to go around north and south. this for me is the reason they went North... What they are saying the want fir last 100 years is in-sight and they are afraid of it... I expect the one be most happy with this result is Boris as he wants NI gone. I am wondering if the the parties who signed the GFA will have any input in this going forward... It will be interesting to hear the comments in the coming days... i think there is a possibility that the parties who created the GFA will want the politicians of Ireland North and South to fallow through and have a vote on a UI in this Assembly term... I really don't think it be an option to wait as i think Bertie suggested which is crazy... We waited for an opportunity and when its here we have to take it before it goes away...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,353 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    To be fair the government in the south pleaded for nationalists to abandon violence for politics , Sinn Fein have done just that and now their top dog in the north .

    this has to be acknowledged, the younger demographics of the six county’s show that the nationalist community will only get bigger , there will have to be a border poll in the near future .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,360 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Not neccessarily, if anything this election showed younger people are looking to move to non aligned centre parties like the alliance. While i agree its an historic time for SF and Nationalism they didn't increase their vote share or seats, the DUP simply reduced theirs and in fact the other nationalist party SDLP lost 4 of their 8 seats which is the same number unionist parties lost while Alliance picked up a massive 9 seats.

    I think a lot of people are getting distracted by the historic idea of SF first minister and ignoring what voters have indicated in that politics in NI is maybe ready to really move away from the traditional alignments that existed in NI for a century.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,429 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Labour, FF and FG now stand indicted in assisting the fall of the SDLP, did they think the northern electorate were stupid and would not realise what they were up to?

    Do Lab FF and FG think they have a chance of winning if they have decided on these underhand tactics that have no real regard for northern people and are designed for their own political aims in the south.




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