NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

Interesting but I don't think it undermines my fundamental point that the the idea that rise of Alliance signals that Nordies of a Protestant/Unionist background are softening towards the Republic and some may be persuaded to vote for a UI is largely wishful thinking and that hence a UI via a Border Poll is likely still decades away

For all the talk of a UI, its nonsense.

The same % of people voted for nationalists vs unionists in 1998 as today.

Sure, 10% of SF voters would vote AGAINST a UI!

If SF goes down the road of banging on about a border poll while they ignore their electorate on the day to day issues, which include the longest waiting lists in Europe and the poorest areas on the British Isles, they ill quickly be given the heave-ho.

Objective maybe, yet 10% of SF voters given the last big poll on a UI would vote to stay in the Union.

Them the facts!

I think you’re right in some ways, but you also have to consider how the rise of Alliance (if it continues) affects the dynamic of cross-border politics. While integration between North and South has consistently deepened, a major impediment in that process has been the ideological entrenchment of political forces like the DUP who loathe Dublin and any involvement of Dublin in the affairs of the North or any other form of integration with the South — be it legal, political, economic or infrastructural. Indeed, this desire to keep ties severed was the source of the DUP’s disastrous miscalculation over Brexit.

That just isn’t going to be the case with Alliance. They will seek engagement with the South, they will not be approaching all-island initiatives with ideological suspicion, they are not going to be injecting firebrand British nationalism or Ulster Loyalism into everything. They are going to push for what makes sense for NI, and cross-border cooperation and all-island alignment makes sense for NI - especially now that the UK has made it clear that NI is nothing more than an inconvenient anomaly to them that they can gradually remove from the equation by alienating it to the extent they can get away with.

So I’d agree with you that Alliance voters aren’t just going to be UI voters in ten years, but we are definitely seeing a softening of Unionism even if still remains Unionism. But that softening is enough to imagine that we might be entering an era of further North South cooperation and integration — which may go some way in mitigating Unionist fears towards Dublin and indeed southern misgivings about those crazy Nordies.

I thought he said that without changes to the NIP , the DUP would not agree to form a government. It could well be that it's just a case of any old excuse not to form a government with Sinn Fein where SF is the largest party - a concept that must sicken Donaldson to his core and then down to his toes, but the reality of SF being the largest party would be undeniable. Refusing to form a government would only alienate the DUP even further from the ordinary people of NI who just want to get on with their lives, but as recent years have shown, the DUP cannot be said to be known for their political nous.

I do think it’s also worth pointing out, in response to the post you replied to, that Sinn Fein did in fairness actually put bread and butter issues at the forefront of their campaign. I didn’t give them my first preference vote but I would have to hand it to them, they got their tone right in this election and so far they are getting it right post-election.

By getting the result they got, they have absolutely outmanoeuvred the DUP and have plopped them right into a total cluster**k of a dilemma. If the DUP refuse to enter government with SF, they will look anti-democratic and bigoted (which wouldn’t have mattered much of a damn to them for years but now they risk losing progressive Unionists to Alliance). It will also harden Nationalist resolve and evoke old feelings of Unionists wanting to alienate Catholics from influence. If they do a u-turn, they risk further electoral defection to the TUV and the reality of an Executive with strong SF and Alliance influence to contend with. If they push for scrapping the Protocol, they risk continuing on their recent path of delusional thinking on this which has made them look utterly idiotic to their moderate base — while also more or less unwittingly demonstrating for all the world to see just how happily Westminster will stab Loyal Ulster in the back at every turn.

They are in an absolute hole, which they have entirely dug themselves into, and Sinn Fein have made hay. Seems like all they can do is push for some meaningless symbolic wording about the Protocol which they can hold up to their hardcore loyalist base as being something which means the Protocol is OK now.

Absolutely not.

I'm very much "Irish" and voted alliance. Many people I know voted Alliance.

You could say its a class divide - those with brain cells and who just despise the Unionism/Nationalism argument that is 30+ years past the best before date went with alliance. their candidates are also on the more intellectual side.

And this is not a "win" for sinn fein. With DUP in tatters, and a huge jump in young voters they only increased their share of votes be a single point. They did not gain any seats either.

Frankly it was a poor performance because they have done absolutely nothing for local people here that have really felt the hardships of higher prices, poor hospital care and drop in local services. Things sinn fein have done nothing about

Yeah, I think the basic story of this election has more been that a higher proportion of moderate DUP voters have gotten p*ssed off enough with their usual party to either vote Alliance or just stay home altogether.

Sure, he's not even going to take up his seat. He was squirming when Carruthers asked him about it. No chance.

I dare say Alliance will do two things 1) sit back and watch the inevitable bun fight between SF & the DUP 2) campaign for a move away from the binary idea that either republicans or unionists should be the building blocks of a Stormont assembly.

Would SF be in favour of the latter? Maybe but I'm not sure, the more influences you allow in at how things are run, the more you weaken your own party position. Would be viewed as a threat. On other hand, might allow for a way around a 'unionist veto' or a 'nationalist veto'......

I’ll enter a gentleman’s bet with you that DUP enter government. Cap and gown

I have counted a definite 27 seats for SF with another 2 possible elsewhere

27 max unless unionist transfers suddenly start going to sf.

Only way of 26 would be TUV transfer going to sdlp in fermanagh/ST. Highly unlikely. :)

If Gary Midleton gets through in Foyle, it may end up 27/27.

damn - mis counted. Best DUP can get is 26

unless SF end up with less seats than the DUP, then its clearly egg on face for the DUP

I think I read an article during the week that if people switch parties before the first meeting, that they will count in the "new" party rather than the one they stood for (but their first pref. votes wouldn't go towards a tie-breaker)

Any of the Nordies on here be able to speculate whether something like that might happen pr how likely it would be?

Alliance are have seen polling gains mostly in the over 60s.

But the ordinary people of NI don't vote for the DUP; bigoted chicken-littles' do.

So as always Mark, you've nothing to fear from a border poll.

Your Partitionist cohort will win it easily. Be grand.

Well the BBC has finally admitted that Northern Ireland was a Protestant State for a Protestant People, hopefully Unionists will wise up in the next election and continue to vote for the Moderate Alliance party and dump the Sectarian, Homophobic and Bigoted Unionist parties

To be fair the government in the south pleaded for nationalists to abandon violence for politics , Sinn Fein have done just that and now their top dog in the north .

this has to be acknowledged, the younger demographics of the six county’s show that the nationalist community will only get bigger , there will have to be a border poll in the near future .