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Stormont Election 2022

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12357…11

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    #122
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,552 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Early commentary seems to suggest Alliance have had a great day, SF a good day, bad days for both the UUP and SDLP, and at least one extra seat for the TUV. Picture seems to be less clear on the DUP.



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    #123
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,778 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    BBC say first results in 1 hour



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    #124
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,948 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119022510#Comment_119022510

    Well that's true and it's a fair point. An executive of Nationalist/Other would be VERY interesting. Sinn Fein has commanded the chatter but Alliance may yet be the Dark Horse that really upends normalcy. Know nothing of her career if I'm honest but fair play to Naomi Long for charting this course.



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    #125
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,531 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023359#Comment_119023359

    It would be interesting but the chances of it are almost zero. Alliance and Greens would need to out-seat the DUP, UUP and TUV combined.

    Unionists will still be the largest designation barring some massive upset, it's just that the unionist vote is far more split than the nationalist vote which has opened the door for SF to be the largest party.



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    #126
    funkey_monkey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,124 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    Greens look to be toast this time around.



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    #127
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,531 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Mark Caruthers is an excellent journalist on BBC, he is happy to lob grenades at any party and will always pull politicians up if they make any questionable statement.

    Michelle Gildernew got a bit of a hard time just now, was poking Edwin Poots earlier too.



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    #128
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023471#Comment_119023471


    I'm glad that the Alliance appear to be about to pick up some seats but it'd be a shame if it was at the expense of another non-aligned party.



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    #129
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,531 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023857#Comment_119023857

    It is starting to look like the other and nationalist designations are consolidating their vote behind a single party. Unionists continue to in-fight and split their vote.



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    #130
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,879 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    BBC NI reporting an *ESTIMATE* from their former political editor of...

    SF 26/27

    DUP 24/25

    AP 15/16

    UUP 9

    SDLP 8

    TUV 2/3

    Greens, PBP, Aontú shaking it up for final seats, probably zero for the Greens.



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    #131
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Mike Nesbitt might be ok after all. He's finished ahead of his running mate at the first count.



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    #132
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,948 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Strangford can claim the first elected rep, with the Alliance Party's Kellie Armstrong topping the first preference ballot.



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    #133
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I wonder will votes that Aontu have gained from the SDLP will transfer back to the SDLP.



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    #134
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 68,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Spectacular SF vote management in Belfast North. Two candidates, both in on the first count, no huge surplus.



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    #135
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,879 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024131#Comment_119024131

    Well they'll not transfer to the TUV, that's for sure!

    Speaking of the TUV, did they actually change their formal name in order to appear on the ballot as 'TUV - No Sea Border'?

    The pathetic tw@tb@gs.



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    #136
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 68,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024186#Comment_119024186

    UK allows a party description. I imagine they used this.

    Socialist Party down here had to actually change to have "stop the water tax" in their name to do the same though.



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    #137
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024186#Comment_119024186


    Seems like it. Aontu have a massive name as well when they're reading it out.



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    #138
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 14,102 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    I saw "Joanne Bunting elected in Belfast East" and I thought christ, is that lunatic back?

    A quick search made me realise it was Jolene I was thinking of....and her twitter is a doozy.



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    #139
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 68,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Joanne "red, white and blue" Bunting has been re-elected. Somehow. On the first count, which makes it even more surprising. Along with Naomi Long on the same count, which is not surprising.



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    #140
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024180#Comment_119024180

    and in West Belfast too. Top 4 without a whole pile of variance in the second, third and fourth candidates.



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    #141
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,778 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024180#Comment_119024180

    Indeed, they put the DUP to shame with a 4000 surplus for Jeff



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    #142
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users Posts: 3,397 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    RTE are very slow to update their graphics. They were quick to add Bunting even though she was confirmed after O'Neill. Haven't added anyone since including O'Neill and 3 others (2 SF, 1 DUP)



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    #143
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 68,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024299#Comment_119024299

    His election there now raises the question of whether he'll keep the Westminster seat (not obliged to give it up til the General Election) and if so, can Alliance steal it?

    43.1% DUP last time. Alliance + UUP 47.8%.



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    #144
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,885 ✭✭✭Christy42


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023944#Comment_119023944

    That would be disappointing. Hoping at least the DUP get a big shock. Though I guess not being the biggest party would be a decent sized shock. A few more seats for Alliance would not go amiss.



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    #145
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 68,041 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Gavan Reilly's spreadsheet:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTtwQyDAHLcUwrR99_MxXX53IdUIAd2hmxQMS2HqDBF7xG-7SgP6Ft5Ijg4ggiwRx_SRDpUpiXHkpl7/pubhtml?gid=1147603579&single=true

    There are a few places where SF seem to be losing/lending votes to Alliance even.



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    #146
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,879 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    The chap from Slugger O'Toole on RTÉ made an interesting point. Alliance are eating into SDLP vote as much or more than that of UUP. Meanwhile SFs share of the vote will go up, but not dramatically. While DUP vote isn't really going anywhere except TUV.

    What that adds up to is a vote share of Non-aligned 17%, pan-Unionism 45%, pan-Nationalism 38%.

    Hardly ringing mandate territory for a border poll.



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    #147
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 14,102 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    SF got 2.5 quotas from 2 candidates in South Down. Ran 1 candidate in South belfast and got 1.3 quotas.

    Possibly left a few seats behind them as well



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    #148
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,709 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Looking at the first preferences, it seems that Alliances gains have come from Nationalist and non aligned parties.

    The combined Unionist percentage is actually up from 43.6% of the vote in 2017 to 44.3%.

    The Nationalist share of the vote has plummeted from 39.8% to 33.1%



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    #149
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,732 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024551#Comment_119024551


    They wouldn't get 2 seats on 1.3 Quotas - You'd need to be a very transfer-friendly party to pull that off and they are not.



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    #150
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,552 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Is there anyone doing a pro-protocol versus anti-protocol tally? In the event the assembly does return, the consent vote is set for 2024 isn't it?



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    #151
    Christy42
    Registered Users Posts: 7,885 ✭✭✭Christy42


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024571#Comment_119024571

    Is this in comparison to the same regions that have reported so far? Near as I can see not all regions have reported yet and some of them would be relatively heavily nationalist (Foyle and Armagh among them).



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