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Stormont Election 2022

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13567…11

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    #62
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,587 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019116#Comment_119019116

    Really looking forward to tomorrow especially seeing as the last big election I followed (French election) for all it's build up was over in a flash.

    A good long results day awaits.



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    #63
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,679 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018460#Comment_119018460

    You really believe that a strong showing for pro-NIP parties will make a shed of difference to the constant stream of lies and propaganda from the DUP et al about it? If history is anything to go by it will only strengthen their resolve and they will double down.



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    #64
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019307#Comment_119019307

    No I am sure they will still moan but today is essentially a poll on the protocol and the result will be hard to ignore and/or spin.



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    #65
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,679 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019325#Comment_119019325

    I agree its a poll on the protocol but i don't believe it will affect those on the anti sides opinions and stance one iota when it comes back that the majority are in favour of it.



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    #66
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,587 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019339#Comment_119019339

    Wont stop the UK government from vacantly threatening it every week either because most English people won't know the significance of a result for a parliament they don't know exists



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    #67
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019284#Comment_119019284

    Indeed, our PR elections are gripping for that reason; those moments when preferences get tallied, candidates dropping out after transfers. It's electrifying (insofar as tallying can ever be). FPTP isn't quite as exciting because of this, though the sheer larger size of the UK means there are more, if smalle, battles.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019325#Comment_119019325

    We've already seen the pivot, somewhat IMO, from the DUP if the Protocol is supported through the ballot box. They're obsessed with warning that SF want a Border Poll, and if they can't hide behind the Protocol they'll hide behind the Poll as a convenience to ignore the will of the people.



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    #68
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,410 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    One outcome that is possible is that the DUP come third in seats, and Alliance come second.

    If that happens, the DUP will face a choice - accept the DFP role or not. If not, then Alliance could then re-assign themselves as Unionist rather than neither, and take it themselves. If they did, problem over, DUP over, much to the relief of nearly everyone that cares.

    Normality breaks out in NI.



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    #69
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019748#Comment_119019748

    Can they just reassign like that? I'm not sure of the rules to be honest.



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    #70
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019748#Comment_119019748

    Isn't the risk then that Alliance voters who picked them explicitly BECAUSE they had neither alignment, immediately protest and sink Alliance as a valid party? Seems like much of their success has been the pursuit of being a creature other than Thing A or Thing B - even if eventually they'd have to come down one side or another, if the demographics swung emphatically enough. Certainly, going Unionist might kill off all those nationalist leaning transfers.



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    #71
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,609 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I believe that technically they can (since this isn't the first I have heard of this possible outcome). However it would be anathema to them as a party to do so even if it was just a technical decision.



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    #72
    Quitelife
    Registered Users Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    THE DUP thought the Assembly methodology was great when they were guaranteed been number 1 party and got First Minister, but the day has finally arrived where the nationalists are in the ascendancy and because Sinn Fein will be number 1 the DUP dont want to have the assembly anymore.The gap is going to be come bigger to Sinn Fein in future elections as the old school Ulster says No to everything brigade are essentially outbred.

    The DUP want some type of apartheid system where they are constantly in charge despite becoming the minority.



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    #73
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,587 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019769#Comment_119019769

    I think nationalist transfers would increase. Everyone would see that they are only unionist because the system demands a label to enter power.

    It's not the Alliance fault that the system demands an A and B



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    #74
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019786#Comment_119019786

    Actually traditionally the unionist parties were opposed to mandatory coalition.



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    #75
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019891#Comment_119019891

    I'm in two minds. I don't know the Alliance's headspace but perhaps Naomi Long is trying to carve out a space for a non aligned, centrist government where it could confidently say "we don't need an enforced alignment split to form a mandate". Cos an ideologically flexible party would be a godsend IMO towards forging a path that could sidestep the default intransigence that fouls up Northern Irish politics. Mind you, an Alliance controlled Assembly would need a change to the GFA and that's probably not happening any time soon either.



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    #76
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019911#Comment_119019911

    When they knew they'd always be able to construction a majority entirely excluding Nationalists.

    Last election, SF+SDLP+Alliance would have had a (scant) majority, appoint an Unionist as speaker and talk to the Greens and you could probably just about manage.

    This time around I suspect that said theorethical-but-impossible coalition would have a solid majority.



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    #77
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,410 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If the Alliance did redefine themselves as Unionist to get the assembly up and running, it would only enhance their attractiveness for their supporters. The 'I can't believe they're Unionist' - Unionists.

    This would be particularly true if, as a result, the executive could actually spend some of the money the UK have sent over to combat inflation, prop up the NHS, and generally keep NI quiet.

    If they did do it, the dispute over the NI protocol would be dead in the water.



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    #78
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,291 ✭✭✭arctictree


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019786#Comment_119019786

    Anyone know why they changed from leader of the largest party of the largest designation to just leader of the largest party? The former would seem more representative to me....



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    #79
    retalivity
    Registered Users Posts: 14,056 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Turnout reported as "high/very busy", higher turnout typically spells trouble for the DUP as it would indicate young people or those less inclined to vote are getting out. Should be interesting...



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    #80
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,842 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    As the largest Unionist Party, must an NI executive include DUP? Could SF, AP, UUP, SDLP form an exec with O'Neill and Long as FMDFM?

    I ask, because the UUP went into voluntary opposition on a previous occasion. Could the DUP effectively be corralled into doing the same, if they try to obstruct the right of the people to have an operational government?

    It looks like there will be a big turnout, showing a strong engagement, especially for progressive, liberal and post-Troubles policies in NI. It seems unconscionable to me, that any one party, with maybe 19% of the vote can hold self-governance to ransom, irrespective of D'Hondt.

    Could this happen if Alliance finish in second place?



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    #81
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119020937#Comment_119020937

    For Alliance to get the DFM seat they would need to get more seats than the DUP, UUP and TUV combined (unionist designation), or more seats than SF + SDLP combined (nationalist designation). This won't happen.

    The FM post will go to the party with the most seats. The DFM will go to the largest party of the largest designation, or if the FM happens to be from a party from the largest designation, then it goes to the largest party of the second largest designation.

    SF are likely to be the largest party overall so will get FM. The unionist designation will likely be the largest, so because they haven't got FM (as they won't have the largest overall party) they will have to get DFM.

    It's all quite complicated. 😊



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    #82
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Isn't it also possible the high turnout is unionist voters reacting to the talk of a SF First Minister?

    I'd like to see scare tactics fail miserably as it would bode well for future campaigns, but I'm sceptical this is the election where that happens.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #83
    Furze99
    Registered Users Posts: 10,454 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021075#Comment_119021075

    All a bit mad and flawed when it allows parties to unilaterally pull it down when it doesn't suit them. But then sure we voted in great numbers for the GFA.



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    #84
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,842 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021132#Comment_119021132

    It's true, we did.

    But really, after 23 years of Assembly (minus whatever number of years of suspension), is it time to move on to a more conventional style of parliament and governance?

    I know that the outcome of the vote tomorrow may be the impetus for genuine preparation for a border poll in the next few years, but it seems to me that when it comes to the dominant political issues, the people have moved on to ordinary everyday politics, while the parties are struggling to keep up with the times. And those are the issues that a majority government is really needed to tackle, instead of the inherent intractability of power sharing.



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    #85
    votecounts
    Registered Users Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭votecounts


    Any idea if they're will be an exit poll tonight?



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    #86
    BQQ
    Registered Users Posts: 2,038 ✭✭✭BQQ


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021214#Comment_119021214

    Don’t think so, but I’m sure the main TV stations will have a fair idea what way it’s trending by late night



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    #87
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119020248#Comment_119020248

    DUP assumed that the UUP would never come back from the dead (and that Alliance wouldn't grow), and that they'd stay bigger than SF due to the SF/SDLP combo even if Nationalist came out bigger.



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    #88
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021256#Comment_119021256

    I'm fairly sure NI won't start counting til 9am.

    GB counts overnight. Much easier to count FPTP votes as its rarely tight so being slightly sloppy isn't important, so its fine to have tired people counting at night! Scotland also uses STV but I saw someone claiming they scan and electronically count votes now (I'd question the reliability of that).



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    #89
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,842 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    8am for the NI count tomorrow. 3 count centres, two in Belfast one in County Derry somewhere.



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    #90
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1522314879528574976?cxt=HHwWgIC96afUrKAqAAAA

    Looks like the number is down from 2017's 64.8%.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



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    #91
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119020248#Comment_119020248
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021297#Comment_119021297

    They didn't really change from this. Leader of the largest party of the largest designation gets FM is the current method and the largest party of the second designation gets DFM.

    The one caveat added in St Andrews was that the largest party overall gets FM irrespective of their designation, and if this happens the largest party of the largest designation gets DFM instead. This scenario has never arisen before, but it's very likely to come up this year.

    The original method, before the St Andrews change, was that the FM had to get the support of an overall majority AND a majority of unionists AND a majority of nationalists and the same for the DFM. This is obviously much more likely to end in a stalemate.



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