Stormont Election 2022

petronius

There is still an un-normality about elections in the North. Will be a sectarian headcount as ever. I suspect the unionists will gravitate back to the DUP, and similarly, nationalists will filter back to SF to try and make a point.

Sad to see attacks on people campaigning, PBP (Hanna Kelly) attacked, Aontu (Denise Mullen) posters removed, Alliance (Stephen Donnely) was harassed in Omagh, and SDLP (Elsie Trainor) in south Belfast. Shameful!

O'Neill

That debate from UTV was woeful. No commentary or anything after just going through the motions. The whole election has been very oddly dull imo.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119005101#Comment_119005101

In a sense they are going through the motions. Stormont wasn't sitting before the election and it almost certainly wont be after it either. The only thing that seems to be of any real interest is to see if SF win more seats than the DUP for the first time.

At least once that happens then it has happened - ie it won't be this big focus anymore - kinda like a striker in football who hasn't scored a goal in ages and that's all anyone an talk about.

Mr.Nice Guy

The final debate is on BBC NI tomorrow at 9pm. Not sure it will be much of a gamechanger at this stage.

retalivity

That latest poll showing Alliance are now level with the DUP could be a godsend to them, perfect fuel to whip up the base, crank up the fear, and ge tthe vote out. That is, if they're not already away to glasgow on the piss for a football match.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/dup-and-alliance-party-neck-and-neck-according-to-new-assembly-election-opinion-poll-41609021.html

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119011325#Comment_119011325

Are Alliance listed as "unionist" for the purpose of power sharing ?

pixelburp

3.1% margin of error is some swing though; that means Alliance mightn't be that close to the DUP in real terms?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119011376#Comment_119011376

I presume so, given they favour maintaining the union but TBH that's pure guesswork as for the longest time Alliance were a low scoring, high minded party who could only speak from the margins. I kinda ignored their voices as such

L1011

Alliance are designated as Other, along with PBP and the Greens.

If they came second, I guess they could re-designate (NI21 went from Unionist to Other) but it'd damage their vote base.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119011484#Comment_119011484

Level in the polls may not translate to seats either especially if they don't have enough running mates.

Sam Russell

With STV, transfers mean seats, and being transfer friendly helps enormously.

Will alliance get transfers from Unionists and Nationalists? Probably.

Will DUP get transfers from Alliance voters or Nationalists? Probably not.

If they get one seat in each constituency that will give them a total of 18 MLAs, which would be a fantastic result for them. There are 90 MLAs to be elected. If they got an average of 1.5 per constituency, they would equal SF current number of 27 and one behind the DUP current number of 28. Possible?

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119012016#Comment_119012016

IMO the only place DUP will get transfers from in any significant number is the TUV. I don't see a lot of UUP transfers to the DUP, more likely to go to Alliance.

Alliance are super transfer friendly, if they can combine this with a strong first preference as well then they could do very well indeed.

Brussels Sprout

I would love nothing more than for the kind of bitter Unionism nostalgic for the time when "the other side knew their place" to get hammered. So that's both the DUP and TUV. Northern Ireland can only move on when that demographic realise that those days are gone and they are never coming back. Unfortunately a lot of their voters will likely always vote on that basis - the only hope is for them to eventually be replaced by younger people from their community who prize different aspects of life more importantly.

A good election for a non-partisan party like Alliance can only hasten that change.

pixelburp

Not just archaic forms of unionism mind you; always worth reminding the DUP party is also deeply conservative, to the extent it has Edwin Poots, creationist, as member and former leader (however briefly). It opposes nearly every foundational principle of modern social democratic norms including access to same sex marriage & women's health resources (necessitating intervention form Westminster to force compliance of the UK wide abortion legislation). Poots somehow feeling representative of the party's genetics, than some outlier.

They are a regressive, intransigent party representing every backwards facet of both Irishness and Christianity. Their cultivation of hostility towards dem uns the other side of town is possibly the only remaining reason they're still relevant (though Northern Ireland is by and large more conservative anyway IIRC). They should be consigned to be the political bin as inherently destructive towards the economic and social prosperity of the North.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014328#Comment_119014328

It always struck me as a little bit odd that the nationalist parties tended to be progressive on social issues and the unionists are the opposite. Perhaps it's something to do with wanting, or not wanting, everything else to be like the 1950s as well.

I know there is the PUP and Aontu who maybe fill in the gaps for progressive unionists and conservative nationalists respectively but neither of them have seats in the assembly.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014468#Comment_119014468

Nationalist parties were originally influenced by civil rights movements and the left wing revolutions.

Unionists are influenced by the landed gentry and the class system. All change is seen as an erosion of their power.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014468#Comment_119014468

Could be where the religion aspect comes into things, the DUP's intrinsic Presbyterian history instilling a natural resistance to any kind of social change - given it's kinda baked into the culture of the thing from the outset. Heck it's primary calling card was a big, fat "No". From what I understand of the religion anyway, it's far less given towards interpretation or indeed, repentance as a pathway to god.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014468#Comment_119014468

The Nationalist Party (which was more just a name used by various agreed candidates than a properly organised party) was fairly conservative, which is at least a small part of why its rising stars all left to form the SDLP. The SDLP still has a rump conservative division which causes them some issues politically; though some of that upped and left to Aontu.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014692#Comment_119014692

It's not really a specific religious thing, it's a cultural thing. If it were a religious thing then SF (a party whose voter base I would guess is overwhelmingly catholic) would also be a very conservative party.

As regarding Presbyterianism being open to interpretation etc, it's Protestantism, by definition it is far more open to varying interpretation than Catholicism which has none whatsoever.

I think it comes down to nationalist parties close ties to civil rights, and now that the religious equality issue has been resolved this has naturally evolved into modern social issues such as gay marriage, abortion etc. On the other hand, unionist parties have traditionally feared change, their desire is to maintain the status quo. That said, things are changing as you can see with the UUP starting to soften on social issues, realising that the never-never politics is disenfranchising a bloc of potential unionist voters.

Mr.Nice Guy

Watched the debate on BBC and didn't think much of Donaldson's performance. Didn't have much support from the crowd either apart from a chap who it turns out was a former Welsh Tory who has since joined the DUP called Dan Boucher. Wish these plants would be acknowledged by the hosts.

AyeGer

A good result today will be Alliance, SDP and SF doing well and even the UUP. I hope for a poor result for the DUP and especially the bitterest of them all the TUV/Jim Alligator.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018039#Comment_119018039

It's funny but I'm oddly excited by the election (and the UK mainland one as well) simply to get a better gauge on what's the general populations view is. We've had plenty of debate, linked articles etc. but there's always the fear of inherent bias in what you read out of them etc. Hence I'm really looking forward to see the results (but not in a "I'll stay up all night and watch them come in" kind of way) and esp. how things will play out in general here for NI and how many toys the DUP will throw out of the tram as well as the consequences of that.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119016073#Comment_119016073

Pat Kenny was always great at rooting out plants. If he suspected that an audience member was one he'd immediately shout out "Are you a member of a political party?" to which they would almost always sheepishly acknowledge that they were and he'd just cut them off then and move on.

breezy1985

For what could be a historic day on NI it all feels a bit flat.

Probably because it seems definite now that like we all assumed the DUP will not respect the vote and take the DFM post.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018373#Comment_119018373

I'm honestly counting on it as it will force the hand for Tories to run over DUP (which they have done previously as well) and trigger further change.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018373#Comment_119018373

Whether or not the DUP take the post of DFM the results of today will be big.

For one thing, a strong showing for pro-protocol parties would soften a few coughs.

Larry Bee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018411#Comment_119018411

I can see no reason for the Tories to get involved. They don't give a toss if Stormont starts again or not and ii would keep the DUP onside if they don't get involved.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018639#Comment_119018639

They certainly don't care about NI but that doesn't mean they won't use it as a political football or a means to "bash" the EU.

pixelburp

Results aside, I always find election days exciting. I can't resist the nerdy charm of them, even when I've no skin in the game or ostensible interest in an outcome. It sounds trite and hokey to say, but I genuinely love watching democracy in action. It's the most boring-yet-important thing we should always do.

NIMAN

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119018373#Comment_119018373

Not respecting democracy. Wouldn't be like them. And all because they are finally the minority.

Nationalists respected the DFM post without issue for many years.

Kinda sums up NI and bigoted politics. Rattles and toys getting thrown out of the pram.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119019116#Comment_119019116

Absolutely. All the better when it's a PR-STV election too.