Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I can't find the CNN article.

The couldn't steal it, so the mined it:

We have already sen the tractor that hit a mine; I saw another which was a burned out truck in which two power line rpairmen were blown up and severly injured in after hitting a mine on the job.

When this is over the Ukrainians should build large medieval style catapults near the border and load all the mines and booby traps they find over the next decades - and return them whence they came.

The general consensus seems to be that the sinking of the Moskva has virtually no direct military consequences for Russia. Politically sure, economically as they effectively can't replace the vessel, somewhat of a morale hit to Russian forces maybe.

Russia already has several S400 batteries in Crimea with maximum missile ranges illustrated below; and also has numerous shorter range systems deployed in Ukraine itself:

So no, unfortunately the sinking of the Moskva hasn't really altered the potential for Ukraine to attack Russian targets via the air unless we're talking about ships a good distance away from Crimea and skirting the Romanian/Bulgarian coasts.

The general concensus of whom ?

It's an interesting one.

First it didn't happen.

Then it did happen but it was ok and saved.

Then no oops it was lost due to the weather.

Now it doesn't matter and has no impact.

Oh and notice , we don't talk about it more it's crew.

Mad stuff all the same when you peel back the changing narrative over the last few days. Don't you think.

The general consensus of OSINT and military analysts who post online.

And the changing narrative is explained very simply:

1. Information is released from usually one or two initial sources; greeted with healthy doses of scepticism.
2. More sources release corroborating evidence: in this case we saw signals intelligence indicated the Moskva was in distress.
3. "Official" sources such as the US or Russian MoD in this case confirm something happened.
4. "Official" sources release more conclusive statements on what they think happened; or we start to see concrete photo/video evidence.
5. Analysts and journalists try to make sense of what happened and put it in context of the wider war.

So no, it's not "mad stuff", it's simply a perfectly natural and expected process that occurs in this world of instant gratification and instant news that things crystallise over time into something which is (hopefully) more fully understood.

For a Russian false flag I would expect to see a "cheap" civilian target hit and civilian casualties. Nothing that the Kremlin actually values like fuel, caviar, yachts, etc.

"Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot inside Russia, mayor says fire almost out

Ukraine's top security official rebuffed the Russian accusation - the first by Moscow of an air strike on Russian soil since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb. 24. Belgorod is one of Russia's main logistics hubs for the war.

"For some reason they say that we did it, but according to our information this does not correspond to reality," said Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov."

The point might be to compile a list of 'incidents'.

Those numbers are approximate maximums for the S400s missiles. I'm not sure the actual measured ranges are publicly available; hence the term "approximate". Do you have some source which disputes those approximate maximums?

In any case that image was just to illustrate the point that the Moskva's loss does not really affect the military situation in Ukraine. If you want to talk about radar coverage here is a (potentially) more accurate representation of Crimea's radar coverage which also doesn't include radars Russia will have operating further north inside Ukraine proper:

As far as the Moskva being there to "cover the rest"; it was there to cover the ships in the Black Sea as they undertook operations further away from Crimean air defence umbrella. Cruise missiles can still be fired from deep inside the cover of this Crimean umbrella; so they can still launch with relative impunity.

The only real material difference is that an amphibious landing somewhere along the Ukraine coast south of Odessa would have to take place with reduced air defence coverage. However it has become increasingly clear that an amphibious landing is no longer on the cards; and neither is a push to Odessa or Transnistria.

Hence the conclusion that the loss of the Moskva only has very minor military consequences for the wider Russian effort in Ukraine as we now understand it.

Seriously, how would you suggest anyone was going to corroborate evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Mariupol - fly an OSCE team in by helicopter to take statements, blood samples and swab the munitions remnants, and for them to then all saunter back to their ride and fly off into the sunset with Russian troops cheerily waving them goodbye?

The reason Zelensky focuses so much on weapons is the same that has driven me to give a reasonable amount to Ukraine's military fund and not a cent to the humanitarian one. Bullets are the only way to lessen the need for bandages. A military win is the only way to stem the creation of refugees. Killing Russians saves Ukrainians.

"Paul De Grauwe argues that Russia simply lacks the economic resources to sustain a prolonged conflict of this kind and that the world should be deeply concerned about the potential for Vladimir Putin to turn to unconventional means as an alternative. ... The second pillar of Russia’s power is, of course, its nuclear arsenal. Nuclear bombs do not win a conventional war, but one can destroy a country with them, in the blink of an eye. And here lies a great risk for the rest of the world. What will a dictator do when he realises that he cannot win the war by conventional means but by other means? That remains the most terrifying question today." https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/02/russia-cannot-win-the-war/

"CIA Director William Burns says "potential desperation" from Russia's Vladimir Putin to portray a victory in Ukraine increases nuclear weapons risk. None of us can take "lightly" the threat posed by a tactical nuclear weapons he says. (April 15)" https://eu.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2022/04/15/cia-chief-putin-desperation-raises-nuclear-risk/7337115001/

"What makes the use of tactical nuclear weapons plausible (although not likely) to me is their unequivocal messaging value. The use of one or more tactical nuclear weapons would be an unmissable attempt by Putin to break the unity of the West, and to test the resolve of some NATO countries. It would also signal once and for all his willingness to do whatever it takes to achieve his political and strategic goals." https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/a-hurting-stalemate-the-risks-of-nuclear-weapon-use-in-the-ukraine-crisis/

The author of that opinion:

"Francesca Giovannini is the Executive Director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs. In addition, she is a non-residential fellow at the Centre for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.

Ms. Giovannini served as Strategy and Policy Officer to the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), based in Vienna. In that capacity, she oversaw a series of policy initiatives to promote CTBT ratification as a confidence-building mechanism in regional and bilateral nuclear negotiations, elevate the profile of CTBT in academic circles and promote the recruitment of female scientists from the Global South. "

And I could go on. I find your belief that Zelenskyy is spoofing and just fishing for sympathy and weapons to be a sever misjudgement of his character and intellect. I think he is serious and is echoing what other reasonably informed and qualified people are voicing. I don't think he's a man to cry wolf.

Russia threatening the Czechs now who seem to have laughed it off ,

Czechs can't send Soviet era equipment to ukraine without Russian permission 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Czechs should fax them the text of the Budapest agreement in response... and highlight in bold all the parts the Russian fascists have violated.

Just another threatened country to add to the list:-