Russia - threadbanned users in OP

What happens for Russia if they can't get anything out of this war? If they fail to conquer the Donbass, Mariupol and land corridor to Crimea? Will Putin be taken out by his own or will the Russian Federation simply split and fall apart? This will be some disaster for him if the walks away with no secured objectives on Ukraine. This is looking quite possible at present.

Doubt that Boris and Liz are bothered.

Yes, and Russia's delay in repositioning will be fatal as it has allowed Ukraine to stock up on very capable gear.

The danger now is that Putin is facing certain defeat IN Ukraine but "provocative" measures may need to be taken to dissuade him from continuing long range bombing and shelling thereafter.

All I have seen is that there are dscussions about Reaper drones. If you you have seen anything definete, please share, as those could completely change the future course of the war.

It's a stretch to suggest the missiles were Harpoons, when the UK only recently mentioned supplying them and it's known Ukraine have had Neptunes since before the conflict started. Ukraine knew the Neptunes would be a game changer from the outset in terms of dealing with a sea assault on Odessa and consciously hid them thoroughly to stop them being taken out.

Yes thats exactly what has started. The sinking of the moskova was a spin they couldn't sell and the May 9th parade is just around the corner. So the pivot has started. We were doing well in our special operation against the nazis but the NATO and the American devil's became involved. Now we are in a fight against equals and we've taken a few losses. We will increase our war effort.

...BTW your conscription letter is in the post

Nexta is Belarussian. Good luck finding a Telegram channel that's truly neutral. Stuff coming from Russia is all state media. This is a telgram channel that seems incident and military hardware focused, run by an Israeli: https://t.me/no_itsmyturn

The Ukrainians aren't going to give up on the Donbas region just like that. At the very minimum they'll continue a guerrilla war, at maximum they will take it & Crimea back and drive Russia back to pre 2014 boundaries. Surely a lot depends on what level of ongoing support they can get from the west. If they start getting the message to accept what they have and that military supports will slowly be withdrawn, won't have much choice. But if they continue to receive support, they will certainly have the motivation and means to inflict very heavy losses on the invaders.

And can't see conscription being much of a solution for Russian military. Maybe long term, but even as it is and notwithstanding nationalistic fervour, the young lads will surely perceive that there's nothing in this for them apart from hardship. Already well reported that many of those on military exercises pre invasion, weren't too convinced when they found themselves on the front lines. Even with state control of media, it's not like 1940. Putin apart from misjudging Ukraine and international reaction, clearly also is of that generation that does not understand the grasp of a younger generation used to modern information technology. A dinosaur in more ways than one.

Biden said they were providing 'advanced drones' and I saw a web page somewhere recently said they were Reapers. Hasn't been decided yet though.

Unfortunately I have seen several historians and commentators suggest this is a distinct possibility in the face of a likely failure to achieve the desired results and the prospect of an actual defeat. I seriously believe that Biden should take a leaf out of Putin's book and say that while the US will said it would not directly confront Russian forces, the use of WMD's would change that and the US would have to consider that Russia had become a direct threat.

Bidens current nonsense of giving Putin carte blanche to do whatever he likes is so stupid it's the one thing that has made me think he's not fit for the position.

With advanced drones (ones without Cannon cameras and held together by superglue) being able to accurately target Russian forces and further weaken their air defences, those Russians could be in for a World of hurt.

let's all hope that happens to Russia.

Thanks for that. Been looking at a few channels and it's a bit of a mess. Might stick to my usual sources!

The bombing of Mariupol may be an attempt to get a victory for May 9th.

Crimea is essentially Russian anyhow. It was given to the Ukrainians by Khrushchev in 1954. Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago? | Wilson Center

According to reports the Moskva had at least 2 nuclear weapons on board. In an interesting aside it also had a relic of the 'true cross' of Jesus? Were these still on board at the time of sinking?