Crimea is essentially Russian anyhow. It was given to the Ukrainians by Khrushchev in 1954. Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago? | Wilson Center
Maybe they would have to take a leaf out of Russia s book and liberate all Russian civilians. Or flat out deport em.
The bombing of Mariupol may be an attempt to get a victory for May 9th.
Unless Ukraine gets tanks, aircraft and artillery from the West and lots of them(which brings in a lot more geopolitical issues) to equal up the forces involved and goes from "defence" to "attack" it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to take back much of the Russian gains in the east. With Russian forces fairly entrenched in those eastern areas and consolidating by the day right on their border the advantage shifts the other way. The Russians would be defending, the Ukrainians attacking. As Russia found out, even with seemingly overwheming numbers attacking is a lot more difficult. If Ukraine take back Crimea I'll buy a hat and eat it. If and it's a huge if they did take back Crimea they would face similar issues you outlined as far as Russia faces in Donbas only IMHO much worse. Since 2014 Russia has bolstered her presence in Crimea. How many pro Ukrainian Nationalists do you think remain in Crimea? It's essentially Russia at this stage and resistance would be massive.
Thanks for that. Been looking at a few channels and it's a bit of a mess. Might stick to my usual sources!
I agree with all that
The smart kid is thrashing the street thug, according to Queensbury rules
Unless the smart kid's friend has a length of 2" x 4" handy, the street thug is highly likely to pull out his knife
With advanced drones (ones without Cannon cameras and held together by superglue) being able to accurately target Russian forces and further weaken their air defences, those Russians could be in for a World of hurt.
let's all hope that happens to Russia.
I'd imagine that the attack on, and sinking of the warship - thereby removing its air defence capabilities was a precursor of increased air based attacks by Ukraine.
Unfortunately I have seen several historians and commentators suggest this is a distinct possibility in the face of a likely failure to achieve the desired results and the prospect of an actual defeat. I seriously believe that Biden should take a leaf out of Putin's book and say that while the US will said it would not directly confront Russian forces, the use of WMD's would change that and the US would have to consider that Russia had become a direct threat.
Bidens current nonsense of giving Putin carte blanche to do whatever he likes is so stupid it's the one thing that has made me think he's not fit for the position.
Yes, I thought it was decided. I guess if they are talking about it there is a strong chance.
Biden said they were providing 'advanced drones' and I saw a web page somewhere recently said they were Reapers. Hasn't been decided yet though.
Raptors were on the latest inventory list during the week on cnn.
Now the inventory list has multiple drone types with undisclosed numbers.
And can't see conscription being much of a solution for Russian military. Maybe long term, but even as it is and notwithstanding nationalistic fervour, the young lads will surely perceive that there's nothing in this for them apart from hardship. Already well reported that many of those on military exercises pre invasion, weren't too convinced when they found themselves on the front lines. Even with state control of media, it's not like 1940. Putin apart from misjudging Ukraine and international reaction, clearly also is of that generation that does not understand the grasp of a younger generation used to modern information technology. A dinosaur in more ways than one.
There was discussions with General Atomics about supplying predator and repeaters drones during the week
The Ukrainians aren't going to give up on the Donbas region just like that. At the very minimum they'll continue a guerrilla war, at maximum they will take it & Crimea back and drive Russia back to pre 2014 boundaries. Surely a lot depends on what level of ongoing support they can get from the west. If they start getting the message to accept what they have and that military supports will slowly be withdrawn, won't have much choice. But if they continue to receive support, they will certainly have the motivation and means to inflict very heavy losses on the invaders.
Now you mention it, ordinary Russians are also finding out what's going in Ukraine via telegram
Nexta is Belarussian. Good luck finding a Telegram channel that's truly neutral. Stuff coming from Russia is all state media. This is a telgram channel that seems incident and military hardware focused, run by an Israeli: https://t.me/no_itsmyturn
Medvedchuk - the ould fella who was arrested there a few days ago and who is good buddies with the Putster, well his missus is giving out that he was being given a few slaps by the Ukrainians.
He's a man after me own heart.
Yes thats exactly what has started. The sinking of the moskova was a spin they couldn't sell and the May 9th parade is just around the corner. So the pivot has started. We were doing well in our special operation against the nazis but the NATO and the American devil's became involved. Now we are in a fight against equals and we've taken a few losses. We will increase our war effort.
...BTW your conscription letter is in the post
Yeah I dont get it.
Russia is moving everything it can to create this massive force for a new offensive. But it's taking ages to do.
Surely the Ukrainians are using this time to perfect the weapons it needs to stop this new offensive.
Every day this offensive is delayed is a bonus for the Ukrainians?
All I have seen is that there are dscussions about Reaper drones. If you you have seen anything definete, please share, as those could completely change the future course of the war.
It's a stretch to suggest the missiles were Harpoons, when the UK only recently mentioned supplying them and it's known Ukraine have had Neptunes since before the conflict started. Ukraine knew the Neptunes would be a game changer from the outset in terms of dealing with a sea assault on Odessa and consciously hid them thoroughly to stop them being taken out.
I'm not nearly so sure that putin is facing certain defeat or that he walks away with no secured objectives. Yes he screwed up and was repelled in his push fo Kyiv(which was an unfathomly daft move out of the box anyway), but as things stand he's taken much of the Donbass, a goodly chunk of the Crimea corridor and save for a miracle Mariupol will likely fall soon enough. Ukrainians have played an absolute blinder in defence, helped by Russia's inadequacies and logistical screwups, but attack is a very different matter. The areas putin is now concentrating on are on the border of Russia and her rail network so logistics are much less in play. There would be more civilian support for the Russians in such areas and what was there already has been concentrated by Ukrainian nationalists leaving since this war started. The ground is more open and more suitable to tank and artillery movements and the Ukrainians are vastly outnumbered as far as tank and artillery goes. Ditto for aircraft. Hit and run jabs and drone strikes by infantry can certainly cause problems but Russia has the sheer numbers.
Yes, and Russia's delay in repositioning will be fatal as it has allowed Ukraine to stock up on very capable gear.
The danger now is that Putin is facing certain defeat IN Ukraine but "provocative" measures may need to be taken to dissuade him from continuing long range bombing and shelling thereafter.
Hi folks, anyone know any good telegram channels for following what's going on in Ukraine ? I tried NEXTA but obviously it's all in Ukrainian
Doubt that Boris and Liz are bothered.
Where did you see that the yanks are supplying Reapers? That's a game changer there (depending on the numbers).
What happens for Russia if they can't get anything out of this war? If they fail to conquer the Donbass, Mariupol and land corridor to Crimea? Will Putin be taken out by his own or will the Russian Federation simply split and fall apart? This will be some disaster for him if the walks away with no secured objectives on Ukraine. This is looking quite possible at present.
Catchup -
Apparently there are 2 injuries for every death in war.
America is supplying Reaper drones.
The ship might have been sunk by a British missile but downplayed as a Ukrainian one for political reasons.
Unless of course this could be cyber warfare insinuations. I’m surprised this hasn’t happened yet to be honest. Maybe it’s my lack of IT understanding and overly western Movie villian expectations on Putin but doesnt the baddy usually pick out a token victim to show the world what will happen to the rest if they dont comply?
So in this case, the Russians could choose a country that couldn’t actually respond (like ireland) and attack certain infrastructures ala Die hard 4. It’s nuts even thinking about it but wasn’t the HSE hacked just after covid ? You think of how reliant we are on technology , honestly I don’t know what a “nuclear technology bomb” might look like but I presume it’s possible.
Surely Russia can’t keep threatening everybody and doing nothing? (Unless of course their threats are all hot air and just for national consumption).
They won't get far
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