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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,078 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Wikipedia has a good detailed map showing who controls what towns and cities, and which ones are currently being contested.

    This other map doesn't show the towns and cities as granularly, but does have updates on the latest happenings around the country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,078 ✭✭✭✭briany




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Is there any realistic prospect of the Ukrainians retaking Kherson?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭rogber


    No shortage of evidence here, and I don't think the guardian can be accused of being a Kremlin outlet paid to discredit Zelensky.

    Before the inevitable accusations come, let me repeat I am not trying to smear Zelensky. I think he has been fantastic these last few weeks, in the context of this war I couldn't care less if he's a bit corrupt. Just saying that corruption seems to go deep and wide in Ukrainian society. But hey, Italy probably isn't much better and it hasn't stopped it being part of the EU....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,078 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I would have thought that what the Ukrainians will be aiming to do for now is see if they can hold the current line of control against what intelligence appears to be saying is a prepared onslaught by the Russians on two more concentrated fronts. So, in the short term? No, I don't think there is much chance of retaking Kherson.

    Right now, my concern isn't even so much Ukrainians retaking Kherson as it is over the fate of those living in occupied Kherson. The stories about residents being bussed out to god-knows-where are chilling.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Russia has always been a ridiculously centralised political state. The provinces are not trusted, and either loyalist governer-general types from the centre or bought local strongmen are installed to stick to Moscow script.

    That's been the way since Ivan Grozny and that paranoid imperial impulse persists even to this day.

    Even in the Russian Federal Far East District, whose cities are closer to Tokyo than even Irkutsk - and have resources and potential coming out their backside, can't take advantage of it because Moscow is paranoid of local political chiefs falling into the orbit of Beijing, Tokyo or Seoul. So the place just lives with the dead hand of Moscow an 8 hour flight away suffocating it's potential by strangling any true federalism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Yes, the people living under occupation are in an Orwellian nightmare. I try to remain optimistic about Ukrainian prospects but worry that I'm not being realistic. I wish they were more able to carry out their own offensives rather than all the initiative being on the Russian side.





  • Why Ukraine didnt blow up the Kherson bridges when they were retreating at the beginning of the war was a big tactical mistake. Possibly Kherson and to the west of it would be safe now if they did this. Just shows how important it is to have key infrastucture like bridges mined in advance.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,460 CMod ✭✭✭✭Ten of Swords


    @[Deleted User] and @goldenmick drop it or you will both be removed from the thread. Discuss the Russia-Ukraine war not each other, simple as that.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,327 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Let's face it corruption runs with politics the way the dogs run with the hunt. Our own long list of grifters should tell us that. Never mind how many got away with it, were even quietly lauded for it. Our minister for defence got elected on the back of his father's name after same took the tragic way out after money was found to be "resting in his account". That's before we consider Haughey and Ahern and a long list behind them all the way back to the foundation of this state. Yesterday we had Boris Johnson walking the streets of Kyiv for the optics to distract his voters from his and his parties fúckups like Brexit, even though him and his party have been taking Russian dirty money for decades, even enobling members of the Russian olicarchy class, while cleaning their ill gotten cash through London banks and taking their sweet time to sanction them and dragging their heels with visas for Ukrianian refugees. But they gave them guns so that washes that away. Zelensky's no fool and he knows all this too, but he has to work to practicalities.

    Do I think Zelensky is squeaky clean? Nope. It's almost inevitable he's not to get to where he is in where he lives. Before all this kicked off it was seen that Ukraine was the second most corrupt nation in Europe after Russia and that's a high bar. Zelensky's dealings with Ukrainain media outlets have been questionable too. However and it's a big however, he's significantly cleaner than his Russian puppet predecessors. Since Maidan there has been a drive on many fronts against business and government corruption and it was making headway. It'll make more in the aftermath of this.

    Corruption in Ukraine is not unlike nazism in Ukraine. Go back ten years or more and it was horribly corrupt, a mini me Russia run and raped by an olicarch class and had a lot more actual hard right facists in play and in power. If Russia had invaded Ukraine in 2007 they would have had something of a leg to stand on(it would still be perverse and ironic) as far as claims of "denazifying" the place" go. In 2022 they really don't. The difference back then is that the rulers were putin's nazis and our nazis are fine when it suits.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    Though I'd love to see this, my fear at the minute is Ukraine are being limited at their offensive options by the majority defensive weaponry they are receiving. The western powers need to be more ambitious with their weapon deliveries.

    We have seen that the Russians do not have the capacity to fight against threats on multiple axis. They mustn't be allowed to regroup and stay fresh. No its the time to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to crush the russian forces.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    That's my fear too. I feel it would be easier for the Ukrainians to face the Russians in the east if they held the bridges on the Dnieper so they didn't also have to worry about the Russians attacking towards mikolaiv and Odessa or even towards Dnipro from the south.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭Hobgoblin11


    whatever way you look at the battle for Donbas it looks like a Russian victory in the long run, the question is how far into Ukraine will the Russians push afterwards

    Dundalk, Co. Louth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,829 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Russia's biggest imports are Broadcasting Equipment, 8 billion, which they use to well to brain wash. Of course its probably china that supplies this type of equipment,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,829 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    The West I'm sure has the means to hijack Russian Broadcasts, and to begin transmitting on the same frequency so it's beamed into millions of homes in Russia. Tell the brainwashed zombies the truth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭sjb25


    This guy has good maps he updates daily and quite good anaylisis also he an ex us army vet can be intersting

    https://youtu.be/7nLMSCY5txQ



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228


    To be slightly pedantic it's actually their third biggest import at $7.15B broken down as China ($4.63B), Vietnam ($1.14B), India ($235M), Sweden ($186M), and Netherlands ($178M).

    Their two biggest imports are cars and car parts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,078 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The Russians do not have unlimited time to prosecute this war, and they don't have unlimited funding with which to do it. Now, before anyone says, "but they're getting a billion dollars a day for gas and oil...", the country not only has a war to run, but a whole vast country to keep ticking over as well. When you have to spread that billion across such a range of costs, it's not necessarily the thing that can keep Russia's war effort going indefinitely. If the May 9th thing is true, that gives the Russians one month to achieve their (revised) objectives. That doesn't seem like a great amount of time after having witnessed their fecklessness so far.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 775 ✭✭✭Heraclius


    Also that sweeping, unsupported statement could have been made in late February about all of Ukraine and proved to be totally wrong then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,467 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Not the case. I've seen many military experts on social media who think Russia is up against it (for all of the reasons they failed to take Kyiv or even get near to the city) and who think they could well end up losing 'the battle for the Donbass'.

    There are numerous things going wrong on the Russian side : badly led, poor or outdated equipment, not well motivated, logistics and supply lines going wrong etc. They took an absolute hammering in the north and lost decisively.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228


    "There is a struggle in the Kremlin, the next two weeks will be decisive"

    "There is a struggle in Kremlin between the lunatics and the pragmatists. And the pragmatists have realized that they cannot seize Kharkiv. The lunatics might send an army to complete destruction"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,919 ✭✭✭GM228


    Probably hidden behind a paywall:-

    But, could this be a reality?

    "Ukrainian officials said Moscow’s aims likely go far beyond seizing these areas, and that Mr. Putin seeks to destroy the best Ukrainian units in the battle of Donbas to then try again to seize the rest of the country, including Kyiv"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    I read on Bloomberg [Paywall] that Putin will make a rare trip outside his bunker in Russia to meet Lukashenko in Belarus [Tuesday in the vostochny cosmodrome exactly if you are interested]. An opportunity for a coup perhaps to put an end to the madness. Well, all the best coups take place when the guy in question is out of the country.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    Once an entity like the Russia Army sets foot inside a country's borders they should be treated like a bacterial infection and eradicated.

    The Baltic states must recognise that assisting Ukraine now, is the only way to halt the spread and lessen the chances of a relapse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    A good opportunity for a particular type of coup, but I mustn't drone on about that . . .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,467 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Good article. That guy agrees with the general assessment that Russia will lose the battle for the Donbass and will not be able to take Kharkiv. Interestingly, he senses a shift in Western / US opinion and that they may now be favouring the idea of a Ukrainian military victory over Russia as the preferred outcome.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,735 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    To tell you the truth I watched this clip yesterday and that probably confirmed my thoughts and informed my opinionin that post. It’s 18 minutes long not expecting you to watch it but this is a guy who I find quite interesting a Russian philosopher who grew up in the Soviet Union in the 1980’s. I agree with all your thoughts in the above post but I do think things very noticeably moved up several gears very quickly in the last few years and people who never had much opinions in my circle of friends before are now spouting very pointed talking points that are clearly on the Pro Russian/ conspiracy type agenda which they must be bombarded with on their personal social media feeds. Anywhere here is the clip from Vlad vexler. He gives a good insight into how a Russian propaganda storm saved lukashenko in 2020.

    https://youtu.be/_j6Vg7yLx54



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭rogber


    By and large I agree with you. The topic only arose because I said I felt that, emotional reasons aside, Ukraine was likely quite a few reforms short of being a realistic candidate for the EU, and of course I was immediately labelled a Kremlin agent. So I just wanted to clarify my position. I would personally be totally in favour of them joining when the time is right.


    As for Johnson, yes I'm sure part of it is distraction and him living out his Churchill fantasies, but from what I gather the UK has delivered more and better weapons than almost any EU country and the head of Britain going on a walk on Kiev is also a great PR moment for the Ukrainian war effort, so I'm all for it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭EltonJohn69


    I suggest a nuclear waste flavoured cup of tea.



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