April 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for April 2022

No late penalties for these entries.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1

NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2

waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5

Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5

adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

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Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

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The group consensus is near normal in all regards, but given the cold start that seems to indicate a general belief that much of the month will be rather warm especially the second half perhaps? For the bonus question, about half of the field foresees a basically warm, dry day for Easter Sunday. There are only ten of 22 forecasts calling for more than 0.2 mm and only seven with 1.0 mm or more.

After two weeks:

IMT was 7.7, as this is a bit late appearing I can say after fifteen days it is probably close to 7.9 now. The second week average of 8.3 was 0.2 below average.

MAX 17.8 and MIN -4.6.

PRC now 90% of normal, with the second week average 85% of normal.

SUN now 92% of normal with the second week at 75.7% (454/600).

BONUS will be scored on Monday.

Odd situation, if there is 5.4 mm or less, I would finish last, if there is 7.2 then I would be tied for first. If it was anyone else I would probably be lenient and score off a "skewed" distribution curve but I didn't say that in the rules so will have to hope we reach 7.2.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 8.1 with third week average 9.3 (+0.3 relative to normal for the interval).

MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6

PRC is now on 99% of normal with the third week 116% of normal.

SUN now at 98% with the third week 111% of normal (664/600).

BONUS scored above.

After four weeks ...

IMT on 8.6 (fourth week average 9.6 is 0.1 above normal). This likely to finish around 8.6 now.

MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6. Checked today's hourlies and don't see anything likely to change MAX.

PRC has fallen off to 75% with the fourth week very dry (1% of normal, thanks to Cork at 8%). Will finish around 75%.

SUN at 111% with the fourth week quite bright at 148% (887/600). Will finish around 110%.

Will post some preliminary scoring on Sunday 1st, but we will need to wait to Tuesday 3rd for confirmation of some data.

Estimated or confirmed values:

IMT _ 8.6 .. MAX 18.6 .. MIN -4.6 .. PRC 085 .. SUN 110 .. BONUS scored above

Will post some preliminary scoring based on these later today. IIGATI

(bonus for decoding IIGATI)

More or less, "if I get around to it." So I did ...

Preliminary scoring for April 2022

Scoring will be shown in order when these are confirmed or adjusted (4th May).

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus _ TOTALS

Tae laidir _______________22 _ 05*_ 19 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 11 ____ 65

Artane2002 ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 74

Danno _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 82

MrSkinner ______________25 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 05 ____ 82

DOCARCH ______________25 _ 18*_ 05 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

john mac ______________ 24 _ 01*_ 05 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 54

Joe Public ______________24 _ 05*_ 19 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 02 ____ 64

Kindred Spirit ___________24 _ 08*_ 12 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 70

Gonzo _________________23 _ 12*_ 18 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 77

NormaL ________________23 _ 13*_ 04 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 67

waterways _____________ 22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 67

Dasa29 ________________22 _ 13*_ 04 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 64

Con Sensus ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 75

adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 18*_ 18 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ____ 77

Appledrop ______________21 _ 08*_ 17 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 ____ 66

Sunflower3 _____________21 _ 11*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 ____ 66

Bsal __________________ 21 _ 15*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 66

Pauldry ________________20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 04 ____ 55

Dacogawa ______________19 _ 03*_ 13 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 07 ____ 49

Jpmarn ________________19 _ 11*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

200motels _____________ 19 _ 14*_ 16 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 ____ 72

sryanbruen _____________18 _ 16*_ 19 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 05 ____ 66

M.T. Cranium ___________ 16 _ 20*_ 18 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 12 ____ 79

Mr stonewall ____________15 _ 18*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 79

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*MAX scored from minimum progression.

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(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1

NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2

waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5

Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5

adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

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Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

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Annual updated scoring will be posted after these scores are adjusted on 4th.