April 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ Easter (Sunday) is quite late this year, on the 17th. So we'll try a location we don't use very often, Mullingar, for a prediction of the daily maximum and rainfall with six points available for both elements to create a super-bonus opportunity. Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 13.8 and 2.2).

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Friday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

Note _ MIN could be happening around closing time so late forecasts that state a known value will be capped at 15/20.

My forecast and NormaL ...

MTC ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 __ 12.3 _ 10.9

NormaL _________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 13.8 __ 2.2

=============== Good luck ===============

=============== ====== ===============

200motels

200motels___________ 8.0 _ 20.1. _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 __ 15.3 _ 2.9

Artane2002

Artane2002 _________8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 __ 14.3 __ 1.3

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 90 __ 14.9 __ 0.0

dasa29

Dasa29 _________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 14.5 __ 2.5

pauldry

Pauldry _________8.1 _ 22.4_ -5.0 _ 120_ 111 __ 16.5 __ 0.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___________ 8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 __ 14.2 _ 0.2

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________8.0 _ 22.2_ -3.9 _ 135_ 93 __ 15.1 __ 0.5

John mac

john mac _________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 98 __ 9.8 __ 1.6

Danno

Danno___________ 8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 __ 16.3 _ 0.1

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.5° ___ 21.2 ___ -3.8 ___ 88 ___ 121 ___17.0 & 0.1mm.

Joe Public

Joe Public ___________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 99 __ 18.1 _ 0.0

Gonzo

Gonzo ___________ 8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 __ 15.2 _ 02.1

waterways

waterways ___ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 __ 99 __17.0 _ 0.0

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ____7.6___19.8___-4.8___88___115___15.1__0.0

appledrop

Appledrop__8.2__21.2__-4.3___105__85__14.4_0.2

Phew on time this month!

sunflower3

Sunflower3___________ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105_ 105 __ 16.2 _ 0.0

adam240610

adam240610____8.3_ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 __ 14.1_0.0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 96 __ 13.5 __ 3.5

mrskinner

Skinner_____8.6____21°____-4.5°____90____110____17°____0.6

Bsal

Bsal _________8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 __ 12.5 __ 0.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 85 _ 115 __ 14.8 __ 0.5

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2022

No late penalties for these entries.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1

NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2

waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5

Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5

adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

_______________________________________

Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

=================================

The group consensus is near normal in all regards, but given the cold start that seems to indicate a general belief that much of the month will be rather warm especially the second half perhaps? For the bonus question, about half of the field foresees a basically warm, dry day for Easter Sunday. There are only ten of 22 forecasts calling for more than 0.2 mm and only seven with 1.0 mm or more.

appledrop

New Min -4.1, Casement on 1st April.

appledrop

Another very cold night, we could have a new Min already.

M.T. Cranium

Mullingar shows as -4.6 on meteociel min temps map, some other possible locations not shown on the map.

Tae laidir

Confirmed by Met Eireann.

M.T. Cranium

After first week of April ...

IMT on 7.1 which is 0.9 below normal. After today probably 6.8 and 1.2 below?

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -4.6

PRC 95% of normal with quite a range in showery regime.

SUN 108.5% of normal (651/600).

The bonus question currently looking like 16.-19 C and dry would be a good range to be in (rather than where your host is).

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon 17.8 yesterday, may be the highest this month.

appledrop

M.T you could be on money now with your forecast for Sunday, it's looking now like a good bit of rain is on the way.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks:

IMT was 7.7, as this is a bit late appearing I can say after fifteen days it is probably close to 7.9 now. The second week average of 8.3 was 0.2 below average.

MAX 17.8 and MIN -4.6.

PRC now 90% of normal, with the second week average 85% of normal.

SUN now 92% of normal with the second week at 75.7% (454/600).

BONUS will be scored on Monday.

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 18.6 yesterday.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118933968#Comment_118933968

I was at the Zoo yesterday and I'm not surprised it reached that temperature, it was lovely and mild.

Jpmarn

Just a comment on our bonus question and the forecast for tomorrow. Mullingar 13.1°C and 15.2mm.

M.T. Cranium

Odd situation, if there is 5.4 mm or less, I would finish last, if there is 7.2 then I would be tied for first. If it was anyone else I would probably be lenient and score off a "skewed" distribution curve but I didn't say that in the rules so will have to hope we reach 7.2.

M.T. Cranium

To prepare for the bonus scoring, here are the forecasts re-arranged into temperature order ... note that the table somehow missed the correct values for NormaL which were in my original post, so those don't match the table but are the correct values. I have also staggered the rainfall forecasts to make them easier to group.

Joe Public ______________18.1 _ 0.0

MrSkinner ______________17.0 ___ 0.6

Kindred Spirit ___________17.0 __ 0.1

waterways _____________ 17.0 _ 0.0

Pauldry _______________ 16.5 _ 0.0

Danno ________________ 16.3 __ 0.1

Sunflower3 ____________ 16.2 _ 0.0

200motels _____________ 15.3 _____ 2.9

Gonzo _________________15.2 _____ 2.1

Dacogawa ______________15.1 __ 0.5

Mr stonewall ___________ 15.1 _ 0.0

Con Sensus ____________ 15.0 ____ 1.5

sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 0.0

Jpmarn _______________ 14.8 ___ 0.5

Dasa29 _______________ 14.5 _____ 2.5

Appledrop _____________ 14.4 __ 0.2

Artane2002 ____________14.3 ___ 1.3

DOCARCH _____________ 14.2 __ 0.2

adam240610 ___________14.1 _ 0.0

NormaL _______________ 13.8 _____ 2.2

Tae laidir _______________13.5 ______ 3.5

Bsal __________________ 12.5 __ 0.1

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _________ 10.9

john mac _______________ 9.8 ____ 1.6

pauldry

Plenty of rain in Mullingar tomorrow. My phone says 15 to 20mm

Actually yr.no predicts 30mm for Mullingar. Eek? Mercy!

M.T. Cranium

Adding up the hourly amounts there has already been 8 mm or more. (as of 0700h). So that's more or less settled. Any more now will not affect contest scoring.

pauldry

12.6mm in Mullingar so far if my .Calculations are correct. 14 hours left!

Jpmarn

It looks like M. T. is more or less nailing it in today’s forecast. So far I have counted about 14mm rain at Mullingar at the time of posting. Temperature around 11° or 12°C so far.

pauldry

22mm of rain in Mullingar now n didn't get much above 12c

M.T. Cranium

Scoring for the bonus question (max temp and rainfall at Mullingar on 17th)

outcome _ 12.0, 19.9 mm rain

I scored this between 1 and 6 points in each category with an attempt made to group the forecasts rather than sticking to any formula for equal numbers at each scoring position. (superbonus points are built into this scoring and two forecasts received some)

FORECASTER ___ fcsts ____ Temp pts _Prc pts _TOTAL

Joe Public _______18.1 _ 0.0 __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2

MrSkinner ______ 17.0 _ 0.6 __ 2 ___ 3 _____ 5

Kindred Spirit ___ 17.0 _ 0.1 __ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

waterways ______17.0 _ 0.0 __ 2 ___ 1 _____ 3

Pauldry ________ 16.5 _ 0.0 __ 3 ___ 1 _____ 4

Danno _________ 16.3 _ 0.1 __ 3 ___ 2 _____ 5

Sunflower3 _____ 16.2 _ 0.0 __ 3 ___ 1 _____ 4

200motels ______ 15.3 _ 2.9 __ 4 ___ 5 _____ 9

Gonzo __________15.2 _ 2.1 __ 4 ___ 4 _____ 8

Dacogawa ______ 15.1 _ 0.5 __ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

Mr stonewall ____ 15.1 _ 0.0 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 5

Con Sensus _____ 15.0 _ 1.5 __ 4 ___ 4 _____ 8

sryanbruen _____ 14.9 _ 0.0 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 5

Jpmarn ________ 14.8 _ 0.5 __ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

Dasa29 ________ 14.5 _ 2.5 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 10

Appledrop ______ 14.4 _ 0.2 __ 5 ___ 2 _____ 7

Artane2002 _____14.3 _ 1.3 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9

DOCARCH ______ 14.2 _ 0.2 __ 5 ___ 2 _____ 7

adam240610 ____14.1 _ 0.0 __ 5 ___ 1 _____ 6

NormaL ________ 13.8 _ 2.2 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9

Tae laidir ________13.5 _ 3.5 __ 6 ___ 5 ____ 11

Bsal ___________ 12.5 _ 0.1 __ 6 ___ 2 _____ 8

M.T. Cranium ____ 12.3 _10.9__ 6 ___ 6 ____ 12

john mac ________ 9.8 _ 1.6 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9

pauldry

Got 4 points. Personally think I should have got 2. I said zero rain and my temperature miles out too.

Well done MTC. Your long range forecasting beats us all!

M.T. Cranium

Well I got lucky with that one, would not try to claim there's any secret methodology behind that, otherwise it would happen more often at that time range as for example St Patrick's Day where I was miles out. Those who went warm and dry were just unlucky on the timing, the Saturday weather would have been pretty good for your forecasts.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 8.1 with third week average 9.3 (+0.3 relative to normal for the interval).

MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6

PRC is now on 99% of normal with the third week 116% of normal.

SUN now at 98% with the third week 111% of normal (664/600).

BONUS scored above.

M.T. Cranium

If we don't get a higher max, minimum progression will be needed for scoring and good news, my low forecast (18.9) is one point outside of the range where that boost is cut in half, so you'll have the full boost. Not much rainfall is predicted now to the end of the month so the outcome there is likely to be around 75-80%. Probably enough sunshine to allow the outcome to creep up above 100% perhaps 105% will be the end point there. IMT has some chance of going down slightly with the mean for the last nine days around 7 C, that would only bring it down a couple of tenths (the 8.1 is actually 8.14). If I could find some extra rainfall in this dry easterly, my score would perhaps be quite good, but I am going to take a hit on PRC from the current guidance.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT on 8.6 (fourth week average 9.6 is 0.1 above normal). This likely to finish around 8.6 now.

MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6. Checked today's hourlies and don't see anything likely to change MAX.

PRC has fallen off to 75% with the fourth week very dry (1% of normal, thanks to Cork at 8%). Will finish around 75%.

SUN at 111% with the fourth week quite bright at 148% (887/600). Will finish around 110%.

Will post some preliminary scoring on Sunday 1st, but we will need to wait to Tuesday 3rd for confirmation of some data.

M.T. Cranium

Probably enough rainfall on 30th to keep the PRC around 85%, rather than dropping to 75%. Checked 29th temps and no new MAX, nowhere that close today either. Will post some preliminary numbers and scoring tomorrow evening perhaps. Just realizing that Monday is a bank holiday which means Wed 4th for the monthly summary now.

M.T. Cranium

Estimated or confirmed values:

IMT _ 8.6 .. MAX 18.6 .. MIN -4.6 .. PRC 085 .. SUN 110 .. BONUS scored above

Will post some preliminary scoring based on these later today. IIGATI

(bonus for decoding IIGATI)

mrskinner

IIGATI= if I get a time interval?

M.T. Cranium

More or less, "if I get around to it." So I did ...

Preliminary scoring for April 2022

Scoring will be shown in order when these are confirmed or adjusted (4th May).

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus _ TOTALS

Tae laidir _______________22 _ 05*_ 19 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 11 ____ 65

Artane2002 ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 74

Danno _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 82

MrSkinner ______________25 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 05 ____ 82

DOCARCH ______________25 _ 18*_ 05 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

john mac ______________ 24 _ 01*_ 05 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 54

Joe Public ______________24 _ 05*_ 19 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 02 ____ 64

Kindred Spirit ___________24 _ 08*_ 12 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 70

Gonzo _________________23 _ 12*_ 18 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 77

NormaL ________________23 _ 13*_ 04 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 67

waterways _____________ 22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 67

Dasa29 ________________22 _ 13*_ 04 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 64

Con Sensus ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 75

adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 18*_ 18 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ____ 77

Appledrop ______________21 _ 08*_ 17 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 ____ 66

Sunflower3 _____________21 _ 11*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 ____ 66

Bsal __________________ 21 _ 15*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 66

Pauldry ________________20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 04 ____ 55

Dacogawa ______________19 _ 03*_ 13 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 07 ____ 49

Jpmarn ________________19 _ 11*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

200motels _____________ 19 _ 14*_ 16 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 ____ 72

sryanbruen _____________18 _ 16*_ 19 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 05 ____ 66

M.T. Cranium ___________ 16 _ 20*_ 18 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 12 ____ 79

Mr stonewall ____________15 _ 18*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 79

_______________________________________

*MAX scored from minimum progression.

=================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1

NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2

waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5

Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5

adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

_______________________________________

Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

=================================

Annual updated scoring will be posted after these scores are adjusted on 4th.