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April 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-03-2022 7:32am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭


    1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

    2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

    3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

    4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS _ Easter (Sunday) is quite late this year, on the 17th. So we'll try a location we don't use very often, Mullingar, for a prediction of the daily maximum and rainfall with six points available for both elements to create a super-bonus opportunity. Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 13.8 and 2.2).

    Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Friday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

    Note _ MIN could be happening around closing time so late forecasts that state a known value will be capped at 15/20.

    My forecast and NormaL ...

    MTC ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 __ 12.3 _ 10.9

    NormaL _________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 13.8 __ 2.2


    =============== Good luck ===============

    =============== ====== ===============



«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    200motels___________ 8.0 _ 20.1. _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 __ 15.3 _ 2.9



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 _________8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 __ 14.3 __ 1.3



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 90 __ 14.9 __ 0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 _________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 14.5 __ 2.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry _________8.1 _ 22.4_ -5.0 _ 120_ 111 __ 16.5 __ 0.0



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___________ 8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 __ 14.2 _ 0.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,834 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa _________8.0 _ 22.2_ -3.9 _ 135_ 93 __ 15.1 __ 0.5

    Post edited by dacogawa on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,093 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac _________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 98 __ 9.8 __ 1.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno___________ 8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 __ 16.3 _ 0.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 8.5° ___ 21.2 ___ -3.8 ___ 88 ___ 121 ___17.0 & 0.1mm.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public ___________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 99 __ 18.1 _ 0.0



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Gonzo ___________ 8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 __ 15.2 _ 02.1



  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭waterways


    waterways ___ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 __ 99 __17.0 _ 0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall ____7.6___19.8___-4.8___88___115___15.1__0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop__8.2__21.2__-4.3___105__85__14.4_0.2

    Phew on time this month!



  • Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3___________ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105_ 105 __ 16.2 _ 0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 808 ✭✭✭adam240610


    adam240610____8.3_ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 __ 14.1_0.0



  • Registered Users Posts: 704 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 96 __ 13.5 __ 3.5



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner_____8.6____21°____-4.5°____90____110____17°____0.6



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,764 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal _________8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 __ 12.5 __ 0.1



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,472 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 85 _ 115 __ 14.8 __ 0.5

    Post edited by Jpmarn on


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for April 2022

    No late penalties for these entries.


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc


    Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

    Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

    Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

    MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

    DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

    john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

    Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

    Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

    Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1


    NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2


    waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

    Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5


    Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5


    adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

    Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

    Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

    Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

    Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

    Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

    Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

    200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

    sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

    Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

    _______________________________________

    Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

    =================================

    The group consensus is near normal in all regards, but given the cold start that seems to indicate a general belief that much of the month will be rather warm especially the second half perhaps? For the bonus question, about half of the field foresees a basically warm, dry day for Easter Sunday. There are only ten of 22 forecasts calling for more than 0.2 mm and only seven with 1.0 mm or more.




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New Min -4.1, Casement on 1st April.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Another very cold night, we could have a new Min already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Mullingar shows as -4.6 on meteociel min temps map, some other possible locations not shown on the map.



  • Registered Users Posts: 704 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Confirmed by Met Eireann.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After first week of April ...

    IMT on 7.1 which is 0.9 below normal. After today probably 6.8 and 1.2 below?

    MAX not tracked yet, MIN -4.6

    PRC 95% of normal with quite a range in showery regime.

    SUN 108.5% of normal (651/600).

    The bonus question currently looking like 16.-19 C and dry would be a good range to be in (rather than where your host is).



  • Registered Users Posts: 704 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Mt. Dillon 17.8 yesterday, may be the highest this month.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,710 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T you could be on money now with your forecast for Sunday, it's looking now like a good bit of rain is on the way.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks:

    IMT was 7.7, as this is a bit late appearing I can say after fifteen days it is probably close to 7.9 now. The second week average of 8.3 was 0.2 below average.

    MAX 17.8 and MIN -4.6.

    PRC now 90% of normal, with the second week average 85% of normal.

    SUN now 92% of normal with the second week at 75.7% (454/600).

    BONUS will be scored on Monday.



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