April 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ Easter (Sunday) is quite late this year, on the 17th. So we'll try a location we don't use very often, Mullingar, for a prediction of the daily maximum and rainfall with six points available for both elements to create a super-bonus opportunity. Max to nearest 0.1 C and rainfall to nearest 0.1 mm (Normal will be 13.8 and 2.2).

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Friday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

Note _ MIN could be happening around closing time so late forecasts that state a known value will be capped at 15/20.

My forecast and NormaL ...

MTC ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 __ 12.3 _ 10.9

NormaL _________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 13.8 __ 2.2

=============== Good luck ===============

=============== ====== ===============

200motels

200motels___________ 8.0 _ 20.1. _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 __ 15.3 _ 2.9

Artane2002

Artane2002 _________8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 __ 14.3 __ 1.3

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 90 __ 14.9 __ 0.0

dasa29

Dasa29 _________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 __ 14.5 __ 2.5

pauldry

Pauldry _________8.1 _ 22.4_ -5.0 _ 120_ 111 __ 16.5 __ 0.0

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___________ 8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 __ 14.2 _ 0.2

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________8.0 _ 22.2_ -3.9 _ 135_ 93 __ 15.1 __ 0.5

John mac

john mac _________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 98 __ 9.8 __ 1.6

Danno

Danno___________ 8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 __ 16.3 _ 0.1

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.5° ___ 21.2 ___ -3.8 ___ 88 ___ 121 ___17.0 & 0.1mm.

Joe Public

Joe Public ___________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 99 __ 18.1 _ 0.0

Gonzo

Gonzo ___________ 8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 __ 15.2 _ 02.1

waterways

waterways ___ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 __ 99 __17.0 _ 0.0

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall ____7.6___19.8___-4.8___88___115___15.1__0.0

appledrop

Appledrop__8.2__21.2__-4.3___105__85__14.4_0.2

Phew on time this month!

sunflower3

Sunflower3___________ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105_ 105 __ 16.2 _ 0.0

adam240610

adam240610____8.3_ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 __ 14.1_0.0

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 96 __ 13.5 __ 3.5

mrskinner

Skinner_____8.6____21°____-4.5°____90____110____17°____0.6

Bsal

Bsal _________8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 __ 12.5 __ 0.1

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 85 _ 115 __ 14.8 __ 0.5

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April 2022

No late penalties for these entries.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1

NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2

waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5

Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5

adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

_______________________________________

Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

=================================

The group consensus is near normal in all regards, but given the cold start that seems to indicate a general belief that much of the month will be rather warm especially the second half perhaps? For the bonus question, about half of the field foresees a basically warm, dry day for Easter Sunday. There are only ten of 22 forecasts calling for more than 0.2 mm and only seven with 1.0 mm or more.

appledrop

New Min -4.1, Casement on 1st April.

appledrop

Another very cold night, we could have a new Min already.

M.T. Cranium

Mullingar shows as -4.6 on meteociel min temps map, some other possible locations not shown on the map.

Tae laidir

Confirmed by Met Eireann.

M.T. Cranium

After first week of April ...

IMT on 7.1 which is 0.9 below normal. After today probably 6.8 and 1.2 below?

MAX not tracked yet, MIN -4.6

PRC 95% of normal with quite a range in showery regime.

SUN 108.5% of normal (651/600).

The bonus question currently looking like 16.-19 C and dry would be a good range to be in (rather than where your host is).

Tae laidir

Mt. Dillon 17.8 yesterday, may be the highest this month.

appledrop

M.T you could be on money now with your forecast for Sunday, it's looking now like a good bit of rain is on the way.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks:

IMT was 7.7, as this is a bit late appearing I can say after fifteen days it is probably close to 7.9 now. The second week average of 8.3 was 0.2 below average.

MAX 17.8 and MIN -4.6.

PRC now 90% of normal, with the second week average 85% of normal.

SUN now 92% of normal with the second week at 75.7% (454/600).

BONUS will be scored on Monday.