Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Sure, but as Putin keeps telling his people, this is a 'special military operation', not a war. This means Putin can only continue with the annual 'peacetime' conscription, not full a mobilisation draft it would destroy his own narrative. Plus, the Russian people would expect conscripts and reserves to be used only in wartime, not for a 'special military operation'. This is why the Russian government have already said that these 135k conscripts won't be going to Ukraine and why there was already a bit of a backlash/backtrack in Russia when it was discovered that conscripts had ended up in Ukraine early on.

Now, obviously, this is Putin we are talking about, I'm sure plenty of them will 'accidentally' be sent to Ukraine, but in the general case he does still have to play along to his narrative within Russia itself. I don't see them ending up in mass in Ukraine, more than likely as mentioned, they'll end up replacing troops in Syria/Georgia/Kuril islands etc. so those troops can be brought back to Ukraine.

Russia wants its oil paid for in Rubles? Will the West call his bluff?

Three little problems:

1. Oil is priced globally in Dollars. Paying in Rouble involves exchange rate risks, and I am by no means certain if the buyer will bear all this risk.
2. Ultimately Western importers are exchanging Dollars and Euro for oil and gas. Use of the Rouble is just adding an extra intermediate transaction cost.
3. If Vlad keeps the receipts in Roubles, then he is making a pretty stupid decision. But sooner or later he will have to sell much of the Roubles, this will depreciate the currency and essentially reverse any Rouble appreciation caused by Western purchases of Roubles at the start of the process.

I'm a little baffled why people don't see this. Don't let Vlad turn a pretty pointless move into a big issue.

I wasn't claiming they were getting acute radiation poisoning; just pointing out the dangers and mechanisms of radiation exposure to them in the area. There are also cases of chronic radiation poisoning mentioned in some literature; so that's also a possibility although probably not likely.

More likely is that exposure to cold, poor sanitation, poor nutrition, anxiety and stress of occupying an enemy territory (especially if they're aware it is Chernobyl and potentially dangerous), and so on have taken a toll on morale and general fitness.

Or it's possible there's no merit to the story whatsoever and they just withdrew to be redeployed somewhere.

Not like this poor divil

A couple of interesting tweets I've come across today. Note that they're both somewhat graphic; so be aware if you click into the images:

A Russian tank which fell off a bridge and sank early in the war was recovered; seems like the entire crew were trapped under the tank and drowned:

The Ukraine Armed Forces reportedly tried to conduct an airlift from Mariupol using an Mi-8 helicopter. The images suggest it was a medical evacuation flight containing wounded soldiers from Mariupol; and it was unfortunately brought down along the coast. Really brave mission to undertake by the pilots; I suppose it's easy to claim it was reckless considering Russia has total control of the surrounding area.

Be aware of clicking through; some of the other photos in the replies are very graphic:

Don't get too excited there. The short term measures to prop it up are not going to work so well over the medium and long term. The banks are still supporting a 20% rate and I'd be curious to see what the situation is for Russia in 6 months to 1 year if the war/sanctions continue.

Seems the non stop state propaganda and lies about Ukraine may even be starting to cause problems for the regime i.e. they may have overegged the pudding and given themselves no out from the war:

"But the presidential administration is said to be concerned about how “a possible truce with Ukraine will hit Putin’s [approval] ratings.”

“The citizens were riled up by propaganda. Suppose a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the Nazis then? Are we no longer fighting them? This word has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how one can stop in Donbas without losing approval ratings,” one source told Meduza."

I have been to Chernobyl. The staff/guards get rotated every 2-3 days.

The area around the plant is generally low on the dosimeter about 10times higher than Kyiv. The dosimeter can go off the scale around some of the wooded areas.

The red forest is a no go area for the tours and probably workers unless precautions are taken.

For reference (and it fluctuates day by day) for when I went there

Radiation in Kyiv was 0.09 (Dublin would probably be similar)

About 100m from the plant was 0.90.

I was in a rural house in the woods and it spiked up to 4.5 and we were pulled out.

There will be areas where it is higher and that you can't go to (that the Russians may have been). And they stayed there for nearly a month. There's a chance they they may have even been drinking water around there too.

There is a small town in the exclusion zone called Chornobyl, about 10-15km from the plant. Seems like a couple of thousand people living there. It will be interesting to see if they have any reactions.

It caught me by surprise when the Russian soldiers pulled out of the exclusion zone. It seemed very abrupt. There may be some truth in the rumours.