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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    https://www.businesspost.ie/construction/construction-firms-threaten-to-down-tools-on-roads-and-housing-schemes-3abb4eee

    The CIF, via its mouthpiece Tom Parlon, now out with the begging bowl. Predictable.

    The very same paper, last April, on how the construction industries have been making hay and getting back to the good old days. The Celtic Tiger years for those of you too young to remember.

    https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/developers-reap-healthy-profits-while-claiming-housebuilding-is-not-lucrative-7c20c0e3

    Oh but it’s different circumstances now, they’ll cry. The whole point of fixed price contracts was to move the pricing risk to the developer contractor. They factor those risks into their pricing.

    Of course if the State had not just spent decades just farming out contracts to the various arms of the private sector? Maybe there will have to be a State managed control of growing its infrasturure but free marketeers will pour scorn on that and make loud noises about communism etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,870 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I was wondering how long it would take for downing tools to become a real prospect. You can't blame them in a sense, it's very high risk and the cost of Finance will surely rise to reflect.

    Perhaps its time to re calibrate and try and remove much of the white collar grab that is unnecessarilly driving up the cost of housing and infrastructure

    Temporary nationalisation perhaps?

    Much of the materials are sourced here with some in semistate ownership.

    Finance from the state is far cheaper than what developers are paying.

    Plenty of land in state ownership

    Much of the costs state levied like vat, connection to services, ineffective regulation etc

    Much of the increase in price as a result of government policy.

    Dereliction and vacancy to be taxed out of existence

    If the sector is contemplating downing tools maybe its time for the state to step in and employ those needed for a 5 year period



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567



    We should have advocated that back in 2016 but instead introduced Rebuilding Ireland which was just a calling card for the financial property industry to come and mug us. It took 5 years until that estate of houses in Maynooth was being sold off to a fund, for the general population to twig what was going on.

    Step forward our policy makers. Not just the faces we see, the politicians, but those behind them pulling the strings. The upper echelons of the public sector. Probably reading all this on this very sunny spring Sunday morning from their dachas, sorry, holiday homes, in West Cork, or Dunmore East.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    EU left wing policies failing as expected.

    unproductive government spending = inflation, Quelle surprise….

    cant wait for facebook job cuts and wfh abroad job relocations. Soon the irish middle class will pay 70% income tax. Seems like these low-IQ left voting goons need to be financially wiped out to learn that an ideology that failed 99 out of 99 times will also fail on the 100th try.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    not sure about tax increases wont go down very well with voters on top of rampant inflation.. FG already touting 30% tax rate in next budget to ease pressure on middle earners

    not sure how HAP can increase either where is that slush fund for landlords going to come from......



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,870 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I struggle to to see how you came to this conclusion. If anything its a result of going too far right. Some of the most successful European countries in terms of society and economy are left of Centre. Poor policy is more about cronyism, corruption and lobbying than political ideology

    Most of the issues are a direct result of the worldwide bailing out of banks. Quantitative easing and the failure to put the brakes on it much earlier and take a bit of pain for the greater good. You think those investment banks are not up to the same behaviour that brought the world to its knees in 08 right now with all that QE. Too big to fail and they know it. There milking the system for all they can get and when it all collapses they'll be back to repeat the cycle

    Even the decision to invade Ukraine was partly influenced by the precarious nature of western economies and property markets in extreme bubble territory. Put in believed that the west would turn a blind for fear of bursting there bubbles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 641 ✭✭✭J_1980


    These Scandinavian countries that are always mentioned by lefties have:

    no/small inheritance tax, no property taxes, small/no capital gains taxes.

    yes they have high prsi equivalent (up to 40% of gross pay from employee and employer), but it’s usually capped around 150k Eur equivalent and pension& unemployment payouts are contribution based. It’s far more “regressive” in a way that the Irish sh*t where you pay a lot and get no more pension than a lifetime doler.



    yea hat nonsense about inflation:

    inflation is far more associated with LBj, Jimmy carter, Argentina, 1970’s labour britain than West Germany, Switzerland, japan and singapore (ie far more right wing economics).



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,673 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Daft have a new report being published tomorrow, 2.4% icnrease in house prices since January.

    MyHome report also due out showing an increase of 12.3% from Q1 2021 to Q2 2022.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    All those deposits and cash piles ensuring buoyancy in the market and levels of price growth not seen since the 00s. It's a booming market for sure and I'm sure that the consensus is that this is an optimal state of affairs to have such a lucrative market. The doomsayers are always going to be negative but the price growth clearly shows that the market is strong.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Well those costs didnt go up 40% overnight now along with the raw energy prices. So yes, its gouging.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Wouldnt be FGs first lie about tax rates on middle Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    Bit of a correlation here!





    "We are not laughing now': FG TDs anxious after 19% poll result"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Leo's face in the thumbnail says it all, but I'm confused by the "attempts to woo millennial voters" analysis. FG are definitely not a party of the young, they are a party of the old and the corporates. It's good enough for them though, they've been in power since 2011 and have guided us into this housing crisis with their actions. A vote for FG is to vote for the housing crisis, notwithstanding that we have useless politicians across the board.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Dublin-centric leadership? Owen Keegan and DCC have come out and said they are going to turn Dublin into a large cycle park regardless of people's wishes.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭growleaves


    It is a bad thing but, even if it wasn't, it is bad to dictate to people and tell them you are riding roughshod over them.

    It dovetails with people being priced out of property in Dublin.

    So look at the future they're creating:

    You, or your children, will be at the mercy of institutional landlords all your life - never owning a home - and effectively stranded, unable to travel long distances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    fantastic to hear house prices are exploding once again will really help multi nationals when deciding whether to expand or base themselves here ..

    anecdotally there seems to be a lot of the same houses up for months on daft .. perhaps they are not being sold at the already ridiculous prices or else havent been removed from advert display...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 132 ✭✭AySeeDoubleYeh


    It says it all really that they believe attempting to woo millennials is a bad idea. Deluded.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,673 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    The daft report highlights that the number of available houses for sale has hit the lowest levels in nearly two decades.

    There might be some pickle sellers refusing to accept offers or living in a fairly tale land with their expectations, but by and large the available overall supply is dwindling when compared with the number of buyers in the market.

    Nationwide, supply is 21% lower now than it was pre-Covid. The shutdown of the construction industry during covid is still filtering through the industry and having an impact on the market. There's every chance that the supply problem will worsen too if a large number of developers start deferring phases of new builds due to uncertainty with costs and the availability of resources.

    Deferrals are already happening in some estates. They don't want to enter into contracts with buyers if there's a concern that they can't stick the completion dates and the costs spiral upwards in the meantime. I think it's alarming and could foreshadow a big collapse in supply. Look around, a lot of developers aren't selling houses off plan anymore. They're building the phases first and then selling them once construction is at an advanced stage.




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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Most places don't seem to take the property down until its sold



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    I shudder to see the updated 2022 SCSI apartment building costs with increases like this





  • Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I wonder if all the posters who were absolutely convinced as soon as Covid arrived that they were going to be picking up half priced gaffs in 2021 / 2022 are still absolutely convinced at this stage.

    Supply is a major issue, Covid made it worse. Things are going to get worse before they get better.

    I would not want to be someone looking to buy in the next few years, it's going to be a stressful time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,870 ✭✭✭Villa05


    It seems odd that 6000 vacant homes can be found in 2 weeks down the back of a couch during a housing crisis

    It says alot of our systems that this was allowed to occur. Credit to the people that volunteered them though

    1 mother with 2+ children in each home would house 20k

    Red cross say 10k but in instances where you have 1 mother and 1 child, could you not put 2 sets in 1 House. This is an emergency situation after all. Better to have a child in a house than a hotel room and benefits of scale with 1 mother supporting the other and vice versa



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,870 ✭✭✭Villa05


    It was rhe response to covid that made it worse by

    QE which goes in at the top of course ie the wealthiest benefit and asset prices are pumped further

    The shutdown of construction, if it was safe to build social housing then surely it was safe to build other types of housing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,120 ✭✭✭wassie


    Agree with this - anecdotally my observation is that it seems where as Agents would normally update the status from 'Available' to 'Sale Agreed' on Daft.ie , they are now leaving unchanged until contracts are exchanged. This only serves to frustrate buyers in the market place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭combat14


    exactly hard to build or buy with rampant inflation the way it is.. already kbc and boi are reporting dropping consumer sentiment for march .. we havent seen anything yet as consumers start to factor in the 2000 euro annual hit to disposable income



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    Another big BTR development on the way, this time for the former Glass Bottle site





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Long overdue but also no where near what was planned for the site. I got the feeling this would be purposely drip fed into the market when the deal had been agreed and it looks like this will be the case. The unpaid, unelected but powerful civil servants in the Dept of housing of course the main culprits here, doing their institutional friends a big favour.

    At the same time, surely this land is going to be flooded in the next 15 years onwards on a regular basis. Looking at projected flood maps, it's guaranteed to have issues with rising sea levels.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




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