Russia - threadbanned users in OP

It took years to do so and a tide of local near insurrection.

I don't think he does and like the "putin is a madman!!" stuff, it's far too simplistic and lazy. Nobody comes from being a very junior member of the KGusedtoB to running the largest country on the planet and doing so for over twenty years by being either a fool or a madman. IMHO that's even a dangerous opinion to hold. Czar Vlad is no fool, or madman, and we shouldn't treat him like one, or act towards him like one.

For a start and unlike the Americans putin has won every war he's started. Which is a helluva trick to pull off for anyone. Chechnya after he utterly levelled the place, murdered tens of thousands of their people is now run by his lackey lapdog and is "Russia" by any other name. And got away with it. And the poor bastards are even willing to fight and die in this war for this Russian kafir who murdered their men, women and children in that war, while shouting Allahu Akbar!! fighting his enemies. It would be like if the British invaded Ireland during the Troubles, levelled Dublin and killed ten thousand Irish men, women and children, installed a London puppet and the IRA went with the British to fight and die in the Falklands. If it were a Hollywood script you wouldn't bloody believe it. Georgia after his "Enforcement of Peace" mission(oh yeah, he never likes to use the word "war"..) annexed the bits he wanted and cares little about the rest. And got away with it. In Syria, another murderous lackey of his Assad is still in power today and at the time it was considered his days were numbered and low numbers with it. And got away with it.

So it's hardly a wonder why putin thinks he has the measure of the West and of his own destiny and why his hubris is plain to see. Going into this if I were in his shoes, I'd be pretty feckin confident too. Now I'd bet the farm he didn't think the sanctions and reactions would be so strong and wide ranging. But he'll try to leverage that too and is doing so already. They won't affect him and his close circle anyway, if anything it'll help him reinforce his rhetoric of the West hates us, something many average Russian believes in their marrow anyway because they've breathed that in with the air and had good reason to enough times, and they've proven in the past to be a resilient people and are proud of that in a way most Western minds really don't get(or indeed can be anymore in many ways) especially beyond the "decadent" western cities, in his heartland of dedushka and babushka support.

IMHO All putin wants is a "win". He thought he'd get a much bigger one that's for bloody sure. A Crimea Part Deux. Ukrainian resistance more than any Western sanctions scuttled that plan of his to fúck. His "win" now will be NATO off the table for Ukraine(pretty much a done deal), the Donbas as "independent republics"(ditto), some optics around "de-nazifying" Ukraine and the destruction of Mariupol will be a part of that spin for him to his home crowd. The only sticking point the Crimea corridor. That's why he's still hammering Mariupol, but has dialed back and dug in elsewhere. Kyiv and Odessa are too known, too "iconic", a step too far, but poor Mariupol will feel the heel of his jackboot more easily. Sadly.

Or... NATO, IE mostly the Americans call his bluff and engage his forces more directly. That will stop him dead and he'll back off, or it's atomic armageddon. Though I suspect the former would be much more in play. Like I say, he's no fool or a madman. He knows the backchannels that exist between the men who would be tasked with actually pushing that button regardless of the side in play. When 911 hit America could have gone to defcon 1 in the initial confusion, but those backchannels were in place and that was off the table PDQ. Condoleezza Rice noted at the time that she was in contact with the Kremlin to tell them the US was on high alert wartime footing and it wasn't about Russia and putin replied we know and we know you know it's not us, and she reckoned that was when she knew the Cold War was over. Bless... It wasn't, but the backchannels of that Cold War were working. They'll work today and putin won't press the big button anyway. He knows the American administration has been keeping back, long on rhetoric, short on action he can't spin for his subjects.

My take anyway.

I haven't Wylo. Got a link? I'd be interested to watch it. Well, let's face it, we all like things that reinforce our existing opinions and make us feel better about ourselves. 😁