Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Richard Hillman · 21-03-2022 11:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816438#Comment_118816438

And also his weakest area of support for his rigged election was in in Minsk where he got 64%. That ain't great considering he "won" the election with 80%.

All things considered, I think he still would have won his election, the figures were just miles off being accurate. But considering it was rigged as f**k, a rigged 64% may mean he doesn't have a majority in the capital city.

Other areas of weakness he has is around the Western border with Poland. A lot of those would have access to Polish media in Brest and Grodno. They'll know exactly what is going on in Ukraine.

Fighting Tao · 21-03-2022 11:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816456#Comment_118816456

There are some interesting comments about it here. Apparently the missile hit 7 hours after the truck pulled in.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1505944281621618698?s=21

21-03-2022 11:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816381#Comment_118816381

No but then again they aren't known for making any sort of intelligent statement.

gandalf · 21-03-2022 11:26PM

Looks like Arnie ruffled a few feathers in the Kremlin...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-just-declared-war-on-arnold-schwarzenegger

briany · 21-03-2022 11:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816493#Comment_118816493

The question is not so much whether people in Belarus or even Russia are seeing what's unfolding in Ukraine in its totality, but whether they're amenable to information being provided. We can see even in our own societies that there are people banging on about Ukrainian propaganda or western propaganda in the face of overwhelming video evidence of what the Russians are doing. Take that idea and transplant it to a country where the prevailing culture is suspicion of what the west is saying and it seems like a fairly hard problem to surmount. Add in the fact that Russia and Belarus are countries where you can be severely punished just for questioning your government and the problem gets harder still. Some may be aware of what's going on but just choose to stick their head in the sand and look after themselves.

JoChervil · 21-03-2022 11:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816057#Comment_118816057

Then there was Germany's last hope of turning the war the battle of Kursk, but the Soviets got every detail of the German plan from the British who had broken the enigma code, what likely would have been a German breakthrough turned into a Soviet trap for them.

Just a small correction. Polish decoders have cracked Enigma Code.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/polands-decisive-role-cracking-enigma-and-transforming-uks-sigint-operations

21-03-2022 11:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816543#Comment_118816543

He must be popular in Russia so.

gandalf · 21-03-2022 11:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816584#Comment_118816584

He is but it's also a very powerful and well crafted video. It shows how worried they are because of it.

storker · 21-03-2022 11:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816559#Comment_118816559

If I remember correctly, the Poles laid the groundwork by reverse-engineering Enigma and even had a mechanical computer like the Bletchley Park Bombe for message decryption, but once the Germans added two more rotors the poles didn't have the capacity to do decrypts. It was some time after that that they provided their Enigma knowledge to the western allies. If the Poles had cracked Enigma to the extent needed to decode encrypted German messages, there would have been no need for Bletchley park. And that is in no way intended to take away from the Poles' terrific work and achievement without which Enigma probably would have remained...er...an enigma (sorry) throughout the war.

Muahahaha · 21-03-2022 11:49PM

Never gets old

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52JsS7WQLh0

Kermit.de.frog · 21-03-2022 11:57PM

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506031890611986441

The peacekeepers putting manners on the natives

Kermit.de.frog · 22-03-2022 12:02AM

https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1505993492723642379

Can't crash if it doesn't open

liamtech · 22-03-2022 12:04AM

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1506028004379664387

Situation in Mariupol not looking good. Looks like the Russians have taken the airport - map below is yesterday, still waiting for an updated one

But you can see the airport is in one of two defended sectors - So i take the above tweet as indicating the airport sector has been abandoned

blarney_boy · 22-03-2022 12:09AM

Interesting video from an Australian Logistics / Defense analyst on why the Russian ~~invasion~~ "special military operation" has gone so spectacularly wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJkmcNjh_bg

TLDR: Russian have spunked their defence budget on nuclear deterrent, parity with US Navy and 'wunderwaffen' / superweapons all while letting their infantry troops and equipment rot away through neglect and corruption.

Ukraine have spent every last penny on a territorial army prepared to fight russian invasion.

Spoiler Alert:

If the west really wants Ukraine wants to win this war, then it can be won

briany · 22-03-2022 12:13AM

@liamtech

Situation in Mariupol not looking good.

Well, yeah. The Russians literally have the city surrounded. Obviously, given enough time, they will completely take the city. Saying that I am thinking of the defenders of the city at this time sounds a bit glib from my comfortable position getting reports on the situation, but f*ckin' hell, they're beyond courageous to be fighting to the death, and I'm sure future generations of Ukrainians will proudly remember their sacrifice and refusal to surrender vs. overwhelming odds against them. I'm amazed they've held out as long as they have.

Overheal · 22-03-2022 12:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816786#Comment_118816786

We still need a solution to the nuclear problem.

One of the heads of the Nuclear Threat Initiative was on Bill Maher this weekend, he made it clear there's no ace up our sleeve there - we could intercept, MAYBE, one ICBM, or warhead. Russia has thousands it is capable of launching simultaneously.

liamtech · 22-03-2022 12:15AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McJYfW8vNA

I actually dont know what to make of the above - a Pro Russian 'Anti Russo-phobia video' - released today; -and.. apparently aimed at the west???

I mean honestly - this is bizarre.

Richard Hillman · 22-03-2022 12:23AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816804#Comment_118816804

I think it's mostly Azov Battalion down there. They know full well if they surrendered, they would killed by the Russians. Amazing effort down there.

Saying that, once the Russians take what's left of Mariupol, Putin may take that as his win. He has gotten rid of his Nazi's, taken most of Donbass & Luhansk and just call it a day. It could be his get out.

Ukraine also get rid of their nazi problem and the Azov Battalion go down as National Heroes.

It's a bit of a grim scenario that may suit all sides.

Curious_Case · 22-03-2022 12:23AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816814#Comment_118816814

Something to do with some kind of "pecking order" among dog breeds ???

fly_agaric · 22-03-2022 12:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816374#Comment_118816374

Just to comment on your ideas about this. If it has to happen very suddenly (a separation from China say, as is being done with Russia at the moment), it is going to be chaos and there will be a huge global economic crisis. I can't actually wrap my head around it really. However, I think you do exaggerate a bit (other post) claiming we are 40-50 years with a critical dependency built up on China and other cheap non US/non Western manufacturing and outsourcing locations to run our economies and provide standard of living we expect. It perhaps began back in 1980s when free marketeers had long stretches in govt. in the US/UK, but it has really picked up in pace post 2000. It has only gotten to the dangerous state that exists now (where the disconnection would cause a crisis/disaster) post the IT/communications revolution and China joining WTO and opening up more to investment.

There is maybe 20-30 years of outsourcing critical manufacturing and services to put into reverse, so if the policy changes start today and are kept to by governments its going to take on scale of a 1 (maybe too optimistic)-2 decades at least to correct it more gradually. Afair the important things in life (job, house, transport [car], raising children, healthcare, retirement) were really not any less affordable or available than now and were not of a terrible standard back in those years in the rich Western countries. People travelled far less abroad, they had less cheap throwaway "stuff" of all types incl. electronics and they waited a bit longer to get what they wanted. The hyper-consumerism had not got fully into gear. I'm not sure if rowing back from this will be a bad thing at all in the end provided its a weaning rather than a shock. Another aspect is the rich had not yet pulled quite as far away from the rest of us in countries like the US (and they are the ones driving alot of this consumption...maybe they should take alot of the hit in that area). The (originally Western) MNCs hadn't bloated up to the size and power they are now etc, thanks to global markets and supply chains.

Also reverting supply chains and critical manufacturing and services in Western economies to be more like what they were 2-3 decades ago as regards location does not mean rejecting 2-3 decades of technological and scientific progress made in the interim like a complete luddite.

Wibbs · 22-03-2022 12:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816295#Comment_118816295

I know a few Russians living here and for a long time too. They really like, even love Ireland and if prodded are actually very quick to come to her defence, but you get very little criticism or rather no thoughtful critique of Russia itself. Now these would be mostly over 35 so there's that. Like you say the older generation who lived through the 90's and genuinely see putin, for all his faults, and they will acknowledge that actually, as someone who dragged them out of that. And in spite of the West. They went from communist Russia where times might have been hard at times, but they were all in the same boat together and it was stable enough and there was pride in the USSR. Then the promise of a new dawn after that, which ended up with them being utterly screwed over by pirates and for a time it was worse than the USSR had been and pride was lost. Now they were their own pirates, but they add blame at the west for that for not doing more. That they had to clean house internally and putin was the result and the very man to do it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816245#Comment_118816245

I 100% hear you CB, but what I have found - and long before this shítshow kicked off too - is the Russian(and many from the former Soviet states too) folks I know think "we're" just as brainwashed. If not more. Contrary to popular belief they don't 100% trust their media either. They don't trust media in general(look at the uptake of covid vaccines here. At one point the unvaccinated sick in hospitals had a strong bias towards ex Soviet background people living here. They weren't exactly lining up in droves in Russia either, even with Kremlin support). They've grown up with a controlled narrative and clumsily applied with it, so have that suspicion. They reckon we're more naive to trust our media and sources and think we do so because ours is more subtle and polished, so we're less suspicious. And IMHO they'd have some point to make.

The difference, and once again IMHO, they don't seem to grasp so easily is that we are exposed to far more narratives and opinions and often extremely contrary ones than they've ever been. They're suspicious of different narratives out of the box because of that background. They have one narrative so they will question that within boundaries, but different narratives are a blank spot in general. They also seem to rely far more on hearsay and what a "friend/relative told me is The Truth(tm)".

So yes we in the West are exposed to spin all the bloody time, but different spins. And we're used to that and will make up our minds accordingly. EG Outlet A will report Event X and usually accurately enough, but will then spin the reality to their ends. Outlet B will report Event X and usually accurately enough, but will then in turn spin the reality to their ends. For Russians all their outlets will spin Event C the exact same way out of the gate and usually not accurately. A very different mindset and approach.

Add in that dichotomy of the "West" being both something good and aspirational and also something to be feared that has attacked Mother Russia for generations. So when push comes to shove they'd rather listen to the devil they think they know, than the devil that is at best confusing, or mildly and often overtly antagonistic to them.

So IMHO it's not nearly so simplistic that they're brainwashed imbeciles or terrorist supporters. That's too easy a read. Put it another way; if you're an atheist why would you read and believe religious media, and vice versa? If you had suspicions that a Ukrainian opinion/report/Fact in this war was dubious, even utter bollocks, how quick would you question it and do so openly in this thread? And here we're much freer to come out with such opinions. Imagine growing up in a world where you weren't. Especially if an opinion made you start to question your own deeply held beliefs and facts.

Jinglejangle69 · 22-03-2022 12:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816845#Comment_118816845

Not liking what I’m reading about this Azov group.

Not a good look for Ukraine and zelensky to be honest.

GM228 · 22-03-2022 12:35AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816814#Comment_118816814

Yes, it's barking mad.

Sorry couldn't resist.

AngeloArgue · 22-03-2022 12:37AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816806#Comment_118816806

Maybe NATO can give an ultimatum

Withdraw your troops or we will be at war on such a date

On the build up to this date we evacuate all the large population centres

If they don't withdraw on that date then NATO hits them hard, obliterate their military

If they respond with nuclear missiles then NATO responds in kind

Yes, thousands would be killed but if we don't stop Putler then millions will die

BorneTobyWilde · 22-03-2022 12:38AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-c1Me0Kezg

liamtech · 22-03-2022 12:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816908#Comment_118816908

Bravo - Definitely - Dead right! lmao

Wibbs · 22-03-2022 12:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816814#Comment_118816814

Ah jaysus Liam. 🤣🤣 They are soooo bad at spin and propaganda it's beyond Monty Python level farce. I suppose that's what you end up with when all you've had before is a captive and hungry audience who will swallow any bloody thing.

Strazdas · 22-03-2022 12:46AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816814#Comment_118816814

They sure have a hard neck. All of their talk about Ukrainians being "Nazis", "drug addicts" and "bandits" strikes me as being 100% racist and yet they are the one complaining about receiving hate.

GM228 · 22-03-2022 12:47AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816804#Comment_118816804

"Ukrainians will proudly remember their sacrifice and refusal to surrender vs. overwhelming odds against them"

Indeed there will be some interesting stories, books and no doubt films to come out of the conflict with a mix of fiction and non fiction no doubt

The Ghost of Kiev 🛩

The Mariupol Defenders ⚔️

The Sunflower Seed Lady 🌻

Zealous Zelensky 🇺🇦

The list will go on and on.

Timing belt · 22-03-2022 12:49AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118816883#Comment_118816883

I think the big question is who will do these jobs and at what level of pay? The west has more or less full employment so if all the outsourced work or factory’s came back to Europe or US there would need to be mass immigration and existing resources would be stretched to the point they would break….just look at housing

Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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