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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 125 ✭✭Nordner


     "Sanctions bite, inflation goes crazy, Russians learn the truth about the war, Putin is deposed. a defeated Russian army returns home reparations kick in. maybe a bit like Germany after the end of WW1.? Fantasy land? Maybe. What ever happens, the world as we knew it has gone...."

    And the slaughtered Ukrainian men, women and children?

    Collateral damage old chap...collateral damage! Jolly good show! Now, that's those pesky Rooskies sorted out! Who's for a game of croquet and a happy ending massage from a 14yr old before we tackle China!?!? 😂

    TTFN



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,328 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes you are right some of the militaries individually are probably (again caution...no expert) better prepared for "war" (I would say, all the ones near/bordering Russia, France, Greece...basically my guess would be the "worried" countries + France). I would question how well they might work together in a big crisis and how quick they would be to get organised for it (without US especially).

    With Germany in particular I disagree, effort to rush some small portable weapons to Ukraine has exposed they don't know what they have and/or some weapons they think they have on paper are actually unusable when they are needed in a crisis. That is not very reassuring, but maybe not a big surprise. I think this comes after many years of scandals involving the German military and of course successive US presidents berating them over their low defence expenditures (yes, I know that is partly self interest!).

    On Russian actions pre this invasion, you are right EU reaction was weak, but I don't think you can tackle every single case of aggression like it is always boundary or limit testing and potentially presenting an "appeasement" type problem which has to be faced down with the strongest reaction possible. We can only ever know that was what was going on in a given situation in hindsight.

    Again, the detail of foreign policy, certainly as regards security & defence incl. response to those earlier actions of Russia you mention is mostly set at the level of member states (and still is despite extraordinary events & EU level coordination of sanctions going on now) and some of them have had very contrasting relationships with Russia. There can be no strong collective EU approach if the member states diverge so much (edit: and EU has no power already given over to it to decide collective actions, as it does in areas like trade).

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,991 ✭✭✭jmreire



    Big difference Amandstu between something that happened century's ago, and something of which memories are very much alive the present day. Mention "Winter War" to any Finlander, and he/ she will quote you chapter and verse about it. They have not forgotten much less forgiven Russia. If Russia disintegrates over the war in Ukraine, then the relationship between Finland and that area of Russia will change too, and from what my friends tell me, they would like their land back, thanks ,with payment for its "rental". While such a scenario may be possible, its unlikely but if it did come to pass, the Finns would be well able and willing to take it back by force. if neccessary..it would be the least of Moscow's worry's at that stage. Can't you just picture it? Several 4 x 4's pulling into the driveway, and bunch of Finns telling the occupants " This property belonged to my Grandparents, and now e want it back" Please leave. ( and that would be the polite ones. Or maybe an alternative scenario. " You have been living in my Grandparents house rent free for x nr of years, and now you may stay, but back pay the rent. If not, get out. Can you see a Finnish Court objecting to that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,204 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Well I would have to learn a bit more about the current of opinion in Finland regarding this.


    We seem to have enough bridges to be crossing at the moment without overspeculating for now.


    Especially as any present Finnish Russian concerns seem to involve aggression from Russia and not the other way round I'd have thought.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,806 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    On Finland, based on my reading of a bio of Mannerheim ( a conservative for those amongst the woke liberals cheerleading squad) the second war of that era (the Continuation War) they were fortunate to retain their independence and not have been completely subsumed by the Soviets as were the Baltics.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,147 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    One thing I have noticed about Finns is their civil war has left a more lasting scar on their society than is noticeable in Ireland for example. There were/are deep idealogical and class differences in the Finnish case whereas for a great many ordinary combatants in Ireland, choosing a side was influenced greatly by personal loyalty and location.


    There are a number of parallels between the Soviet invasion of Finland and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We don’t know what Putins intention is in Ukraine, fully conquering the territory or destruction til capitulation.

    Historians still argue 80 years later whether the Soviets sought to annex Finland or merely create a more easily defended border and increase Soviet territory between the Finnish border and Leningrad.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,752 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I wonder how long it will be before Zelensky tries to force Poland/NATO to intervene more strongly?

    I do think he has a little leverage there, were he to threaten surrendering all of Ukraine and allowing Putin to march all the way up to the border with Poland. I think NATO/Poland in that case, would realise that it's in their best interests to provide more military support to Ukraine and at least keep Russia tied up in Eastern Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,369 ✭✭✭liamtech


    My recollection of history is that they sided with the Germans, but later regretted it when the Eastern Front began to collapse. Then during the Lapland war, Finland fought the Germans out of the country -

    It was an interesting period of history really - The Finns had the moral high ground yet at one stage they were fighting with the Axis - i always viewed it as a marriage of convenience - never saw any real evidence Finland had become fascistic, to say nothing of anything more sinister

    Mannerheim was very interesting too - certainly a hero to many Finns - yet some in the west paint him in a darker light - like i said, a marriage of convenience IMHO

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,147 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Is that a card that Zelensky can realistically play I wonder. Right now he has the support of 90% of Ukrainians and the adoration of the Western world.

    If he surrendered all Ukraine the Russians wouldn’t have to replace him because the Ukrainians would dispose of him themselves.

    Right now he is a National hero, an international hero. He will be in demand on the speaking circuit for the rest of his life. What’s more he comes across of sincerely believing in his convictions.

    Why risk all that on a bluff that would most likely be seen right through?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,991 ✭✭✭jmreire



    Well, according to my Finnish friends ( and I have quite a few) whatever their ( Finish people) differences, they were unanimous in their opposition to the Russian invading their Country, no matter what the Russian plan was, just like the Ukrainians. As to what Putins original plan was, looking more likely everyday now that its not going according to that plan. And he's reduced to levelling Cities that he cannot take and hold. What the final outcome will be, we have to wait and see.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,147 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Certainly the Soviet invasion helped to begin to heal the wounds of the civil war. However one could hardly say the Finnish people were unanimous in their opposition to the Russian invasion when their were red Finns fighting alongside the Red Army, under their own commanders, during the invasion of Finland. There would likely have been substantially more Red Finns involved had not Stalin eliminated many of the surviving leadership of Finnish communism during the purges.

    The excesses of the white purges only started to be discussed publicly in the late 60s.

    https://yle.fi/news/3-10025538

    Perhaps Putins plan was the comprehensive destruction of the Ukrainian economy and society. It would serve the purpose of setting Ukrainian development back 20 years, creating a refugee crisis in Europe and perhaps refocusing US attention on the Europe to the advantage of his new Chinese allies.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    From Militaryland.net

    The summary of the 24th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 23:59 – 19th of March 2022 (Kyiv time).


    A stalemate. Russian forces are currently unable to launch any large offensive, relying on success in Mariupol and small breakthroughs. Ukrainian Army has no means to conduct proper counter-attack, mainly due to Russian air-superiority.

    @liamtech where do we go from here?

    Unfortunately, chemical weapons and/or large scale destruction of urban areas are most likely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2 RimondL


    I'm from the Ukraine and I want to tell you that it's really awful. Nobody knows when the war will end and what will happen to our country. Children are suffering ...



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I know this is said, that the chemical weapons were about to be trotted out en masse, but I wonder how likely is it; why I'm thinking of this hinges on an apparent baseline bias and racism within the psyche of the Russian forces. Admittedly I'm taking huge leaps here but... Syrians & Chechens were Muslims, foreigners and god knows across the globe many egregious actions have been taken off the back of "othering" Muslim peoples. And as we've seen, Islamophobia is just one of many institutional prejudices in Russia. It's a different story to start levelling the homes of what's seen as "Historical Russia", Russian-speaking slavs. As I said, am taking huge leaps and could be speaking out of my áss but could also believe a reluctance to wipe out one's own, so to speak.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I understand the careful German position and their culture around military etc. Saying that, it's about ability to defend yourself and your allies/EU, not about offensive potential or militarism or militarisation for its own sake.

    On the other hand, willingly and strategically basing one's industrial economy on an unstable despotic source of resources to fuel it is way more dangerous in my book. And along with the pseudo-pacifism above it's a strategically very problematic combo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Excellent analysis of Putin's lies about nazis etc repeated and parroted even on this very thread.

    https://euvsdisinfo.eu/why-does-putin-portray-himself-as-the-tamer-of-neo-nazism/


    Motives

    Such relentless lingo cannot have had the purpose of dividing Ukraine from within, or bringing foreign adversaries over to Putin’s side. In the face of such verbal assault – the rhetorical equivalent of exposing yourself on a crowded street – an opponent’s natural reaction is to close ranks against you before turning away in disgust.


    Instead, Putin’s Nazi obsession likely has mostly conscious internal purposes. Like the schoolyard taunt mentioned above, Putin’s Nazi-baiting seeks to distract from the weaknesses of his own regime. It also attempts to unite a Russian domestic audience against a remorseless, demonic, and imaginary external enemy. Finally, it seeks to compel that domestic audience to fight – or, at least, not to object to the fight against – the conjured bogeyman.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,492 ✭✭✭McGiver


    Yeah you do. 😎 This is not correct.

    Russian regime is all about control and strength. Slavic or not Slavic, that is irrelevant. Panslavism is only used as a propaganda tool, nothing else. It's not an ideology. The actual ideology is control and strength.

    Stalin didn't care about Slavic brothers in Ukraine during Holodomor which he observed and most likely planned, millions perished. Stalin didn't care about Slavic brothers in Ukraine when they were used as a cannon fodder between 1941 and 1944.

    Note - Mariupol which has been essentially destroyed by the Russian "denazification" forces "coming to the rescue of Russians" is a majority Russian speaking country....



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Did Putin travel back in time and pay hundreds of Western outlets to write about Ukraine's neo-nazi problem ? There are hundreds and hundreds of articles and video documentaries discussing the neo-nazi problems.

    • Neo-nazi groups were a large factor in the success of the Maidan uprising (larger than their numbers might suggest)
    • They were consequently incorporated into Ukraines armed forces
    • They have been used by the Ukrainian government for the more "brutal stuff" including attacks on pro-Russians
    • After Ukraine surrenders they will continue to be a major problem for Russia, which is why Putin wants the country de-nazified. This means he will wipe them out himself and/or Ukraine must make membership of these groups/gatherings illegal

    There is an obvious disinformation campaign to discredit the existence or influence of neo-nazi groups in Ukraine, to diminish any role they play in current events. The reason for this is obvious, the West funded and armed these mofos (the enemy of my enemy is my friend) and is very nervous about people finding out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,987 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Ukraine has less far-right political representation than most Europe countries. As for the military, the Azov volunteer brigade was funded by a Ukrainian-Jew in response to Russia's military moves against the country in 2014. Yes, it has a portion of far-right members. The battalion itself makes up a fraction of 1% of Ukrainian armed forces. Putin himself has command of a larger group with far-right links, the Wagner group, telling how you never mention that.

    This is bald-faced concern trolling. You are simply repeating and regurgitating Putin's propaganda which has been used to "justify" the slaughter of Ukrainians and illegal invasion of their country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,369 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Every time i go to bed i wonder what news i will wake up to RE Kiev and now Mariupol - Its staggering to watch what is going on.

    • Mariupol: As i understand they were given an ultimatum. Surrender and lay down arms by 2am and they will be 'allowed' to leave the city. They haven't. Its a horrendous situation for the Ukrainians in this pocket. One can assume they have limited supplies, and can only hold out so long. By continuing to fight they are holding up a large force of Russians, which seems to be the main goal of the Ukrainians. They cannot break out (included map of Mariupol below) given the fact the Russian lines around the city are fortified, and the nearest friendlies are over 60km away (figure from the BBC News station but happy to be corrected if i am mistaken). One could speculate that anything is possible now. Russia has 'offered terms', that have been rejected. They may simply level the city now. The only TACTICAL issue with doing that is the debris. BBC/Sky military analysts have stated that the goal of the Mariupol offensive is to join the Russian Eastern and Southern Fronts. But if you will note, the two fronts are already connected - so one can assume the city does hold some value, perhaps creating a highway between the two fronts. The google map screen shot below shows a road labeled M14 running through the city. I would speculate that is the goal. If they level the city, the road could be useless for a time. Im reminded of the Siege of Bastogne in 1944 (Germans surrounded the city, demanded surrender - could ill afford to just level the city given limited air-force at the time, and the main road through said city was the goal - so leveling it was counter productive)


    image.png image.png
    • The operation in Mariupol could also be seen as a warning to the Ukrainians. If they destroy utterly the city it could signify that they have 'taken the gloves off' (as though they actually had any on to begin with). But the carnage could be seen as a grim diplomatic signal to Kyiv - 'Hold out all you want, we can wait, we will crush you in the end' - This is actually a war OF terror now. Its ghastly to realize this, but with non precision munitions employed, it could be that stark. If Putin sits down with Zelenskyy it could undoubtedly be a talking point. We have flattened Mariupol. We WILL flatten Kyiv and or Kharkov - UNLESS you capitulate to our demands
    • The only 'positive thing' i can take from this. Is that the Russians are desperate. They have ground to a halt elsewhere - They may lack the supplies to push on further. Also the rumblings that Belarus will join the war - the Russians NEED HELP. This has not gone according to plan. And with more military support being handed to the Ukrainians, and their willingness to fight - the Russian position (overall) is difficult. They can DEMAND SURRENDER - they may also NEED a surrender.

    All just my thoughts - I honestly dont know. Iv never been faint hearted when looking at conflict and carnage but i am finding this difficult to watch - That said i am glued to it. I just hope the Soft Power front intensifies. Russia must be made to pay, if not in blood, then in money and commerce

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Standard canned response to legitmate concerns about Ukraine's neo-nazi problem:

    • Ah sure every country has far-right
    • They can't be neo-nazi because one of them is friends with a jew
    • Whattabout the Wagner group
    • Anyway you are a Putin propagandist/bot/troll


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,522 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Which is why Putin wants the country de-nazified.

    Well then Putin should have invaded Russia instead given all the neo nazis there, not least in the Wagner groups.

    Pointing out such groups in Russia is not whataboutery - because it shows it is merely a pretext not any kind of real reason for the invasion.

    This is russian propaganda bait. Nothing more.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,987 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Ukraine has as much of a "Neo-Nazi" problem as Russia does.

    It's complete whataboutery. There are many posters on this forum who are virulently against the West or support Putin, they haven't gone anywhere. It's now difficult for them to directly support Putin. So instead they focus on attacking Ukraine via concern trolling about Zelensky's career or "Nazis" or whatever. All while carefully remember to pay lip-service to "how bad" Putin/war. It's completely transparent to everyone else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Based off this nonsense you posted earlier.... Which is all made up ,bar one part ,

    all the individual militias groups were brought into the Ukrainian military forces


    Neo-nazi groups were a large factor in the success of the Maidan uprising (larger than their numbers might suggest)

    (Not true)

    They were consequently incorporated into Ukraines armed forces(kinda true )

    They have been used by the Ukrainian government for the more "brutal stuff" including attacks on pro-Russians.(not true)


    Clearly only making claims for a wind-up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,991 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Thanks for that Safe Surfer. This is the first time I have heard about a Finnish civil war, none of my friends ever mentioned it...So I don't know which side their Families supported, but all of them are anti Russian. Now I will contact them again, and get some more info. They are all very concerned now by what's happening in Ukraine.

    Thanks again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,987 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,991 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Quote "And the slaughtered Ukrainian men, women and children?

    Collateral damage old chap...collateral damage! Jolly good show! Now, that's those pesky Rooskies sorted out! Who's for a game of croquet and a happy ending massage from a 14yr old before we tackle China!?!? 😂

    TTFN" Un Quote.

    Can you elaborate on what that has to do with my post? And for your info, and in my personal opinion, the collateral damage in Ukraine, will neither be forgotten or forgiven.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,987 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,328 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Would you not say Russia may be using a sledgehammer to crack a nut here?

    Although maybe you have always been very, very "concerned" about Ukrainian neo nazis and what havok they may cause in the world, and are greatly reassured by this unprovoked Russian invasion, devastation of cities and slaughter of civilians once Putin "wipes them out" as you put it.

    Anyway as regards you being a troll of some type, if it quacks like a duck!...Also your user name is very suggestive too.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,849 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The AP have published an incredible piece of journalism - it's by the last 2 journalists left in Mariupol. They're the ones who captured the footage of the bombing of the maternity hospital. The Ukrainian army made a supreme effort to get them out of the city a few days ago because they feared the Russians capturing them and forcing them to say that everything that they had published was really a lie.



    The sad thing is that now that they are gone there are no journalists left to bear witness to what comes next.



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