Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I don't think you are a putin apologist or anything but i think ...you are ...enamoured with the idea of the russian state not enamoured of its ideals but how it likes to project itself.

How the hell you could have read "enamoured" into anything I've written about the Russian state or its leader is truly beyond me. I've repeatedly stated and quite clearly but just in case you missed it, because it seems you have and by a country mile with it: putin is a thug who slinked his way to the top during a period of economic, political and social instability, removed his enemies and promoted his friends most useful to him, robbed the Russian people of a future to line his pockets and consolidate his power, while giving them enough scraps from his table to have them believe Russia is better under him and his minions and promoted this idea through propaganda.

I've also stated that his support at home is based on this. That it's higher than we like to think in the West. That the Russian people for generations even centuries have lived under insecurity, oppression and paranoia about "outside influences" and the need for "strong men" and mass sacrifice is built in from the marrow out and their czars of every stripe have exploited and reinforced these parts of their cultural psyche, just like their current one has.

That unlike the Austrian corporal so many lazily seem eager to compare him to because it's great for easy memes on twitter, putin isn't a blip or outlier in Russian history, he's the norm.

I've also repeatedly stated that in any conventional war with American forces, on the ground, sea or in the air, Russian forces would be utterly routed. I'd give them a fortnight before they came to the table. Tops.

What I have said is putin is not some pantomime madman. It would be easier and more convenient if he was. He's no great chessplayer either. He has his and Russia's reasons for prosecuting this war, whether we like to acknowledge them or not and it's likely he'll win some, if not most of his aims as concessions for peace. IE Ukraine not in NATO(the Ukrainians have pretty much agreed to that already). The EU on the long finger. Some sort of 'independence' for regions in the Donbas, with some oversight from the UN/Russia/Ukraine(that'll go back and forth a bit before ink meets paper). He keeps Crimea(that's pretty much a done deal). A decleration from Kyiv that they'll stamp out 'nazis' in their country(more for optics than anything and for the West too). Lifting of some sanctions, while he relies on greed to sort the rest in time. For that he'll withdraw his troops from Ukraine. Reparations will be on the table of course, but I suspect he'll pull the poor mouth there, or spin it that he can't pay anything back because of the sanctions. All that will allow him to spin a "win" to his subjects at home.

However this war has weakened him and Russia. He gambled and lost thinking that like all his previous wars that he won, he clearly didn't expect the level of Ukrainian resistence he faced and faces. His armed forces have never looked weaker or more amateur in the eyes of the world. He never expected the sheer scale and incredible rapidity of near universal agreement of worldwide support for Ukraine and her people, including among those he thought were supporters. Hell, when Switzerland comes out publicly against him. If nothing else that says his money isn't worth it and when the Swiss think that... He never expected the massive and deep level of economic and political sanctions against him and Russia. Some of which he unbelievably doubled down on and will make Russia a pariah for a lot longer than this conflict rages.

That's me being "enamoured".