Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Their eastern provinces are lost. They've been fought over back and forth for the last ten years, on top of a sectarian emnity brewing for decades. The Ukrainians tried to keep it and viciously with it, but failed, or at least stalemated. The Russians took it just as viciously. Personally I'd leave them with it and rehome those who wanted to be Ukrainain. It's a shítshow, leave it to putin. He'll come to regret it, as will those who don't want to be Ukrainian. Crimea is also game over. Lost to Russia and not coming back any time soon

As for Ukraine itself? NATO's offer of membership has a long waiting time and was more political than actual. EU membership ditto, but that is a less bitter pill that the Kremlin will have to swallow, as it's also down the line, so they can spin that to their subjects more easily. Before this war it was even further down the line. Ukraine was an economically stunted ex Soviet corrupt little nation on the edge of Europe with some dodgy politics and a civil war going on, where they weren't covered in glory either, and yes they had a fascist problem. That's undeniable unless we're drinking the blue and yellow avatar Kool Aid. It was reduced in the last decade, but it is still there. That needs to be excised like the tumour it is and by Ukrainians. And well the majority of Ukrainians know it and I firmly believe want it. Their dwindling political support shows this.

Ukraine now has enormous worldwide attention, support and good faith, when a couple of months ago it was "where?" for many, if not most. Now Twitter is lit up with newly minted geopolitical commentators on Ukraine and the toos and fros of their recent past. That support and good faith will rebuild that nation and keep a beady eye on any corruption or nazi shenanigans or support will surely slacken. This war horror will be the making of that nation in time, but like all births it will be and is proving to be terribly painful and bloody. In many ways I would see this as their "civil war", that terrible birth pang of many nations. But it will come out of this better and with a lot more practical, political and economic help than before and a much renewed sense of nationhood.

And yep Russia won't negotiate in good faith, but they'll have to negotiate in practical terms. There's no coming back now as things stand. The Bear may have arisen, but in the eyes of the world and soon enough her own people it has proved to be arthritic, slow witted and out of date and the world's politics and banks and corporations and public opinion have kicked it hard in the soft parts. Stick a fork in Russia, it's done. Fúcked, until Putin and his like are a memory. And they know it. The jig is up and their autocrats are on the back foot and that's the greatest leverage against them. More than any anti tank rocket or bullet that unlike their cannon fodder conscripts they know they'll never have to face.

My 2cents anyway.

And most of that other than keeping the weapons coming is about as workable and dangerous as a NATO no fly zone. They sound like great ideas, but that's all they are. The Ukrainians have pretty much zero hope of retaking Crimea and Donbas, not without overt western help, and that's not going to happen unless the Americans have hacked their nuclear deterrent and shut it down. Ukrainians are in a fight to the death for their major cities against much larger forces that as we have seen care little about casualities, including their own. The very notion of a counterattack at this stage is in the realms of fantasy and wishful thinking. IMHO this war will not be won by bullets and missiles, on either side. It'll be won beyond the Ukrainian nation by sanctions, those weapons and Russia seeing their goose is cooked on all sides and internally and that's already in play.

Yet another nail in Putin and Russia's coffin. They will never be able to get leasing agreements again(or insurance), and not just on airliners. Never mind that without spares and certifications those aircraft will be essentially worthless in a matter of months. Expensive scrap. That's a sure sign of Russian desperation, that may comfort some of their internal support, but they're now setting fire to their house in an effort to stay warm.