Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Look i studied IR - and yes that is a classical Realist position. (hint of Defensive Neo Realism actually, which is interesting considering John is an Offensive NeoRealist - big Stephen Walt and Kenneth Waltz aficionado here)

The main problem with your thesis is it assumes Rationality on the part of Russian Leadership - i dont think im out of line to question that, at this stage.

Look i dont know. Im in a long chat over in Politics forum on this topic - and certainly there is a lot of back and forth - and disagreement - Its all in good faith. I worry about the rationality of Putin though. I agree RE red lines but

• Ukraine was NOT 'about to join NATO' - fears could have been addressed at the summit as opposed to this madness
• The Russians (whether Rational or not) are not behaving 'in good faith' - they have effectively created a fake civil war, and used it as justification for their actions.
• The diplomatic statements from Kremlin actors is staggeringly (BEWILDERINGLY) Ridiculous -

Maybe we are entering a New Cold War - a new 'bi-polar power structure' might certainly be on the cards - but is less obvious given the rise of China

Your 'Irish-Sino' alliance analogy is, well made - i wont dispute it

I do think Soft Power is having a massive impact here (i went into it in my previous post to you, so wont bog down on it again here) - and will ultimately play a part in resolving this conflict - Pretty soon it will be a near impossibility to 'go back to a month ago' in terms of Russo-Western relations. They will have a choice soon. Insulate, and repress - or Slow normalization. You may say the former is obvious at this stage (looks that way i will grant you) but it is by no means as easy as it was in the 80s.

ALL IMHO - happy to chat - LLAP

Depends how many are launched. You have dummy missiles also to overload defences.

The problem is, and I see this in the way Mearsheimer describes the situation as well, is that there's a lot of talk about what the West is doing to breach Russia's red lines, but very little about what Russia is doing to the same effect, and that's very significant because if Russia does not address its problems as a country, it's always going to have a difficult time maintaining a stable sphere of influence and this geographical buffer zone it appears to so desperately crave. In other words, we talk about what the West is doing to pull countries like Ukraine away, but not what Russia is doing to push them away and exacerbate the situation.

Russia's government has had a long, long history, now, with corruption and political repression, and it is again showing its colours in that regard in this particular episode of history through which we are living. It can't be much wonder that the people of Ukraine, particularly the younger people, look east and what that offers. Then they look west, and see what's offered there, and think that the relative freedom and economic opportunity offered by the west is preferable at this point in time. It's not 'social engineering', as Mearsheimer puts it in his essay, it's simple pragmatism. They want the best life possible, as anyone does. Countries like Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania left the Eastern bloc, turned west and never really looked back, because what the east was offering, and had previously given them was, as they say in Yorkshire, 'fooking shite'.

Smaller nations, as you say, may only exist at the pleasure of the greater powers in the world, but until Russia gets its house in order, it's 'children' will always aspire to be prodigal, where a more attractive alternative exists.

Yes .

Looks like Poland has asked for aircraft of similar capabilities from the US in return for sending their migs to Germany,

There wouldn't be a big supply of modern migs in Europe the 29 is the most modern and capable other are still using mig 21s around since Vietnam

It does not border Germany. Before the sanctions it economy is only 3.5x Ireland's. The economy will be a lot smaller after this war. It is a poor country per capita. Its death rate is 50% higher than its birth rate. It is now a has been world power and being a world arsehole country that seems to spend any of its money on trying to get in wars and look like a world power rather than creating a prosperous economy for its people.

I can categorically confirm they can cook 😉

Rzezow airport in Poland is only across the border too ,and it's been the distribution hub for deliveries of Nato weapons for the last 2 weeks ,

This is where we could be looking at ww3 sooner rather than later ,we are essentially already there , just need someone to declare it

But this is an irrational, anachronistic view of the world. If Russia was attacked by The West/NATO using 'conventional' forces the thrust of that attack would be aerial bombardment; the forces would only come rolling across the steppes once Russia was already effectively defeated. Should Russian paranoia be entitled to dictate what alliances the sovereign independent states of Eastern Europe join?

As I was thinking. If you had that capability then it's squeaky bum time for whoever launches the first nuke.

F35s then , I think they said they were too expensive for them ,hence why they went for the F16 to replace their migs ,

Be interesting to see how this plays out

Russia at best are a regional power and tbh given the performance of their army they are struggling to achieve that. Their population is in decline.

The only ace they have are the nukes from the Soviet years and given the state of their conventional weapons and the fact nukes need to be maintained and that's expensive one could ask how many are actually functional.

Putins Russia have been exposed as the world's biggest military bullshitter whose only real capability is bombing and shelling civilians like the Germans did in WW2. A great power my arse, they are now a country of gangsters, con artists and murderers.

Also with Uzhhorod, it's right in the corner of Ukriane. Close to the border with Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and near Poland too. If the Russians get into air combat out there, they won't have the option of breaking those borders. They'll enter airspace to find fighter jets of the border countries. A potential flashpoint.

What do you mean by that?

I'd imagine it could get a few quid for a few of its nukes on the second hand market.

I must keep an eye out on donedeal just in case. If one comes up on adverts.ie asking for a few hundred million roubles I'll just offer to swap it for the ould lada parked out the back of the hedge.