Slightly more helpful than taking 50 refugees and handing out some kit kats I suppose...
How many is that?
this is very good stuff - thanks for sharing -
Russia has a population of 140 million, land borders with 16 countries ranging from Germany to China, has a nuclear arsenal of 6,000 warheads, a maritime border with the US and Japan, and is rich in natural resources. It is most definitely a great power, albeit one whose civilizational stock price is in the deepest doldrums.
It is a power of sorts. But *great* powers have more strings to their bow than residual military might from a ghost empire with accompanying rusting nukes.
A great power has economic influence, cultural influence and deep diplomatic relationships across cultures that extend far into the past and are marked by consistency and trust. Military power should be capable of being projected effectively across a large geography with a feather touch or overwhelming force as mission requires.
Russia has none of those things any more. China has only one if those things (economic heft).
While we're on the subject of realism, only the US meets the above criteria. It's a great power not without its fualts and not without a blotted copybook, but in the interests of democracy and the maintenance of the rules based order, it's a power I hope perseveres a long while yet.
So why does it need to worry about what Ukraine as a free country does. Nobody is going to invade nuclear armed Russia. It doesnt need Ukraines people or resources. It already borders NATO countries.
It is not a small country that could be overrun in days.
It has already been shown it cannot be trusted in its hegemony in Soviet times and its actions in Ukraine.
If it has legitimate security concerns about what missiles / offensive weapons systems NATO would put in Ukraine that could negotiated looking at the wider picture of Kalingrad etc
America has mig pilots and instructors ,since the Berlin wall came down Germany inherited migs which nato poured over for a few years, oddly enough Russia would send tech's to service the new Nato Migs
Taking Mariupol will be key to free up troops. When that happens they will move North fast.
What I would imagine is happening is that they are going to be stored by the US forces in Germany and released as existing jets are damaged or destroyed. No point in parking them out in the open in Ukraine for a month or more where they would be sitting ducks.
The poles were looking at more F16s to replace their migs altogether , that was the plan for the last few years , be interested to see what the Americans give them now
These are good questions, and there are, believe it or not, good (if not nice) answers out there. I would refer you to Caspian Report's 'understanding the Russian mindset' videos.
So to the best of your knowledge a nuclear missile once its launched cannot be intercepted, destroyed, or deflected?
Looks like theres a few in Bulgaria and Slovakia, but thats it as far as NATO resources are concerned. Maybe another 20 in total from those 2 if they are all operational. Definitely would help as between those and the Polish ones, it would effectively double the size of the Ukranian fleet
Look i studied IR - and yes that is a classical Realist position. (hint of Defensive Neo Realism actually, which is interesting considering John is an Offensive NeoRealist - big Stephen Walt and Kenneth Waltz aficionado here)
The main problem with your thesis is it assumes Rationality on the part of Russian Leadership - i dont think im out of line to question that, at this stage.
Look i dont know. Im in a long chat over in Politics forum on this topic - and certainly there is a lot of back and forth - and disagreement - Its all in good faith. I worry about the rationality of Putin though. I agree RE red lines but
Maybe we are entering a New Cold War - a new 'bi-polar power structure' might certainly be on the cards - but is less obvious given the rise of China
Your 'Irish-Sino' alliance analogy is, well made - i wont dispute it
I do think Soft Power is having a massive impact here (i went into it in my previous post to you, so wont bog down on it again here) - and will ultimately play a part in resolving this conflict - Pretty soon it will be a near impossibility to 'go back to a month ago' in terms of Russo-Western relations. They will have a choice soon. Insulate, and repress - or Slow normalization. You may say the former is obvious at this stage (looks that way i will grant you) but it is by no means as easy as it was in the 80s.
ALL IMHO - happy to chat - LLAP
If Russia nukes Ukraine, does this mean NATO get involved? To imagine such a situation would definitely have impact on all Europe even Nato aligned countries. If it comes to that we are all dead but I would hope that NATO would nuke Russia off the map of the world before the end of the world.
Depends how many are launched. You have dummy missiles also to overload defences.
Neither is Putin.
A long protracted war ruins Russia.
Eventually the war will make it's way to Moscow or Saint Petersburg.
The problem is, and I see this in the way Mearsheimer describes the situation as well, is that there's a lot of talk about what the West is doing to breach Russia's red lines, but very little about what Russia is doing to the same effect, and that's very significant because if Russia does not address its problems as a country, it's always going to have a difficult time maintaining a stable sphere of influence and this geographical buffer zone it appears to so desperately crave. In other words, we talk about what the West is doing to pull countries like Ukraine away, but not what Russia is doing to push them away and exacerbate the situation.
Russia's government has had a long, long history, now, with corruption and political repression, and it is again showing its colours in that regard in this particular episode of history through which we are living. It can't be much wonder that the people of Ukraine, particularly the younger people, look east and what that offers. Then they look west, and see what's offered there, and think that the relative freedom and economic opportunity offered by the west is preferable at this point in time. It's not 'social engineering', as Mearsheimer puts it in his essay, it's simple pragmatism. They want the best life possible, as anyone does. Countries like Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania left the Eastern bloc, turned west and never really looked back, because what the east was offering, and had previously given them was, as they say in Yorkshire, 'fooking shite'.
Smaller nations, as you say, may only exist at the pleasure of the greater powers in the world, but until Russia gets its house in order, it's 'children' will always aspire to be prodigal, where a more attractive alternative exists.
Not really. I know two people married to Russians so have met a fair few through them alone. There are a few thousand Russians living here. Nothing amazing about it. Even went out with a Ukrainian woman a few years back. Crazy I know.
Europe fits that too, save for the military power, but it looks like that's going to change since this madness.
Exactly. I have no doubt the Americans are currently in possession of technology with such capability. All this high profile PR talk that was spun out the last few years about UFO's/UAP's is the mask for this sort of next generation technology that they are in possession of.
Yes .
Looks like Poland has asked for aircraft of similar capabilities from the US in return for sending their migs to Germany,
There wouldn't be a big supply of modern migs in Europe the 29 is the most modern and capable other are still using mig 21s around since Vietnam
It simply won't happen because if it does, the Chinese are gone and they aren't going to have that.
It does not border Germany. Before the sanctions it economy is only 3.5x Ireland's. The economy will be a lot smaller after this war. It is a poor country per capita. Its death rate is 50% higher than its birth rate. It is now a has been world power and being a world arsehole country that seems to spend any of its money on trying to get in wars and look like a world power rather than creating a prosperous economy for its people.
I see Ukraine have an Airport (Uzhhorod), that is literally on the Slovakian border. When I say literally, the runway ends and the border is about 50-60m away.
Could the Ukrianians store those MIGs in Slovakia, create a little bridge over the river and roll them onto the Ukrianian runway?
The Russians would be very hesitant too to bomb those fighter jets, especially if they are on NATO/EU territory.
I can categorically confirm they can cook 😉
I am also worried about the rationality of Putin at the moment (see below):
This is precisely why I am deeply concerned about escalatory rhetoric in the west (for which I've been labelled a Putinbot, a coward, or both). All the players are doubling down when what is needed is give and take on both sides. Because there is literally no alternative. I don't believe the sanctions are enough to stop Russia when it's led by a government - sane or not - that believes wholeheartedly that Russia's existence is threatened by Ukraine's westward lurch.
Rzezow airport in Poland is only across the border too ,and it's been the distribution hub for deliveries of Nato weapons for the last 2 weeks ,
This is where we could be looking at ww3 sooner rather than later ,we are essentially already there , just need someone to declare it
5th generation is what is been talked about in the media
And Russia has its reasons, its own perspective. If cut off from the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea by a hostile force rolling across the steppe from eastern Ukraine, Russia wouldn't be a viable state any longer. Now you don't have to like or respect or agree with Russia's reasons, but you have to know that the Russians believe in these reasons very, very deeply
But this is an irrational, anachronistic view of the world. If Russia was attacked by The West/NATO using 'conventional' forces the thrust of that attack would be aerial bombardment; the forces would only come rolling across the steppes once Russia was already effectively defeated. Should Russian paranoia be entitled to dictate what alliances the sovereign independent states of Eastern Europe join?
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