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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Can you please cite any evidence whereby the refugees from Syria are overwhelmingly male?

    I'm honestly not sure what part of my posts you are disputing here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    °°°°°


    There were posters saying that nuclear war isn't a big deal. Boggles the mind.

    Ultimately there's no need to escalate things anywhere near that so the suggestions that things should go in that direction are ill informed at best.

    Post edited by nullzero on

    Glazers Out!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    As far as I can see there are only 5 possible outcomes to this.

    1) Ukraine defeat Russia - possibility almost zero.

    2) Russia Defeat Ukraine, install puppet Government and put up with years/decades of internal strife, terrorism and sanctions.

    3) Conflict expands into neighboring Nato member countries - escalation leading to possible nuclear war

    4) Putin get taken out by an internal coup and replaced, Russia pull out - ideal but not guaranteed

    5) Negotiated settlement with Russia - Putin gets assurances regarding Nato's future expansions, Ukraine sign up to certain stipulations and Putin pulls out.


    Of the above options, other than 4, option 5 is by far the most attractive and one hopes there are back-channel discussions on-going at present. What isn't helpful in the hysterical media (traditional and social) coverage which have portrayed Putin as a mentally unstable psychopathic cross between Hitler and Stalin. It's quite likely that the West will need to do a deal with this guy, a deal than involves giving him certain assurances and ramping back the sanctions. Even Option 4 will likely require the same deal but with a different leader.

    What Putin has done is despicable but it's not necessarily illogical. Time people wised up to the realpolitik of what's going on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Bayonet




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    He has a point though DJ. While arming a civilian militia increases your force in a big way and adds some serious advantages, it also means the opposing forces become significantly less conscious of targeting civilians, because they can use the excuse that they were carrying arms. And it's not such an excuse if you're the one in the firing line no matter what uniform you're wearing. In urban enviroments where threats can come from anywhere this really ramps up and can be seen in every single conflict where civilians become militias. The "civilians let them pass" leeway often gets thrown away. We've seen it in this war. At first the Russians on the ground were pretty 'tolerant' of Ukrainian civilians, even when they came towards them en masse in peaceful protest, or taking video of them. That's changed. I'd be very very worried if ordinary Ukrainians tried the flag waving peaceful protests of last week today.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Aggresively, like the way elderly people drive small Korean sedans around the village?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,365 ✭✭✭liamtech


    @[Deleted User]

    Iv read a few of your posts. And with all that is going on, its difficult to keep up with posts. I want to say that i have sympathy for your position. We all feel impotent at this point. Because we are impotent, at least, militarily.

    how many in the west are willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian: It can seem this way, i admit that. And there are very sad, frankly disturbing precedents.

    The above all refers to Hard Power - and i admit, there is a HUGE IMBALANCE in this that favors the Russians.

    SOFT POWER - on the other hand (Economics, Public Relations, Public perceptions, Diplomacy) - There is an imbalance on this too, but it is ENTIRELY the reverse of the Military situation. Now you may ask, what does it matter? I would answer, believe me; It matters. If it DID NOT MATTER, the Russians would not be

    • Requesting 'Normalization' of Economic Relations
    • Accusing the west of declaring 'Economic war' on Russia (im willing to state, that in effect, the west has done so)
    • Bemoaning the realities of the above statement, and threatening that It could lead to Military war
    • Accusing WW2 era former Axis powers of 'Siding with the NAZIs'
    • Standing up and retaliating in the UN, and via their (and their allies) embassies throughout the world
    • Desperately trying to restrict access to News, and Western Media in Russia

    All of the above matters. And so, frankly, does everything that Western Populations say and do. And our multinational companies are now Voluntarily leaving Russia. They are no longer WAITING for sanctions. And this is BECAUSE of the General Populations REVULSION for what Russia is doing.

    All of this matters. We can't fight Russia militarily (i cannot see this ever happening) - but we can continue to make our voices loud and united, against Russia, and her Allies

    Im not going to call you a 'Chamberlain' or a 'Defeatist' - nonsense to do so. And i am happy to debate (a fellow trekkie if im not mistaken) at any time

    Slava Ukraini

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Just to get this straight, in one sentence, you are blaming the US for supplying the Ukrainian army with anti-tank weapons, and you've justified Russian military units in Ukraine blowing up an elderly couple in a car. Okay.

    These vehicles have optics and range findings, at that range they can easily see the occupants in the car, it's straight up murder, and will probably be referred to the Hague



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I never said the refugees from Syria were overwhelmingly male. In fact I explicitly pointed them out as legitimate refugees.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,238 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    Sadly every thread descends into madness.

    But what annoys me most is people try to come off as experts. Remember the Japanese earthquakes a decade ago? So many coming off as nuclear scientists. More recently with the covid forum - so many were 'experts'.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Ok, so I'm not sure what point you are disputing or where you think I am being obtuse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,519 ✭✭✭✭Varik


    We've all seen the drive by molotoving by civilians in a normal car, I doubt it was plastered with markings clearly identifying it.

    Same for the APC getting hit with the RPG while telling a crowd of civilians to disperse.


    Anyone getting near the Russians is either a direct threat or a distraction for one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    And the same cranks taking up the contrarian/conspiracy theorist position every time because they are special.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 799 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Disgusting flippant comment to make!

    The Russians are the attacking force here, Ukraine is just trying to defend their country.

    This car was just driving along the road posing no threat.

    The Russian still opened fire from the safety of their tanks.. cowardly scum!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,587 ✭✭✭realdanbreen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    The obtuse was in reference to apparently not understanding the persons questions about "refugees" to Europe being, in the majority, male.

    Where refugees are actually fleeing somewhere, the ratio would be expected to be 50:50. If, somewhere along the route, the women are taking a pitstop, then people might ask for more information on the actual reality of the situation. That would be natural thing to do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    How many Anti Armour rounds have the Ukrainians got versus how much armour have the Russkies got?

    Now wonder they're mostly just bombarding from a distance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Russian armor is moving into civilian areas. As we've seen they have zero problem targeting and killing civilians, nuclear reactors, humanitarian columns.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Defeat for Russia is a failure to achieve thier goals. All of the options above are defeats for Russia except for the one you see as the most attractive



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,365 ✭✭✭liamtech


    omg - i can never forget that footage of the elderly couple in a car. Utter disgrace and war crime

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Tbf the US have been meddling with the governments of probably half the countries in central and southern America for the last 50 years. They've never fully invaded but a lot of those governments have been the CIAs playground. Us War on Drugs has been a pretty good way to feck Mexico in the last 30/40 years too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,365 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Couple of known posters working hard to validate Russian attacks on civilians. Have watched a lot of nasty footage in the past days, have no time for that kind of behavior



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So, what's your plan. Do you think you'll still get paid once Putin is deposed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,015 ✭✭✭✭briany


    CNN put up a piece about a Ukrainian hotline that Russians are calling, looking for information on the whereabouts of soldier family members.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Ukrainians starting to use some interesting tactics




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Can you think of reasons why single, male refugees would tend to make it further from the warzone, and thus make an increasinly large proportion of the population as you get further along the stream?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭ronivek


    So you're saying all Russian soldiers and equipment are perfectly entitled to open fire on any and all civilians without any regard for the situation? Are you for real?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 111 ✭✭Botrys



    You really need to identify what's a win and what's a loss in this war.

    It'll become much clearer once you look at this war from a macroscopic point of view.

    Ukraine is just a battlefield, the real war is between Russia (and the camp it belongs to) and US/Europe.

    From the get go, Russia has the upper hand simply because Autocratic regimes have almost nothing to worry about except how the war progresses, while democracies got lots to consider before participating in such war.

    Add to that the fact that Putin seem determined to win in Ukraine as it's a strategic interest to him and with every day passing it appears that his objective is to turn the country to rubble leaving it less and less relevant to the west to invest in rather than occupying it and he's willing to sacrifice the already drafted troops for it.

    One the other hand from a western perspective, we're fighting a proxy war - that alone is a proof who Ukraine really matters to more.

    Now if you pay attention to how americans handle proxy conflicts eventually they're going to pull the plug and abandon whoever is fighting, the last 2 examples for this were the Kurds in Syria and the Afghan army in Afghanistan.

    if you keep an eye around the world today, this is what you see happening:

    • Nuclear Deal with Iran which was very close to be re-instated putting Iran back on the global oil market is being torpedoed by the Russians who are signatories and Iran seem to be on the russian side as just today the Iranian negotiators seem to have left Vienna where the negotiations are happening - thus keeping the russian oil a necessity for the time being.
    • All of a sudden Venzuelan dictator Maduro became appealing to the United States and there are on-going talks to ease sanctions hoping Venezuela can replace Russian oil - Here's Guaido thrown under the bus alongside the kurds and the Afghans. - will Venezuela who's a strategic ally to the Russians and Iran abandon their camp to please the americans just like that ? well i hope so, but i doubt it.
    • Gulf relationship with the states has been troubled lately and their refusal to increase production is the proof for this.
    • China's position is a game change yet remains unclear.

    keeping the above in mind, and with all the implications on world economy, the Russians are putting up a show in Ukraine while blackmailing the west coming to the negotiations table. <-- this is the only relevant negotiation table, and not the one in Belarus.

    The real question in Putin's and everyone's mind is, how long can world economies survive before they pull the plug and abandon the Ukrainians to their doom and come to the negotiation table to save their economies.

    what is worrying here is that if those negotiations fail, then direct military conflict will be unavoidable.



This discussion has been closed.
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