Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Perhaps. We will have to wait and see.

If I remember correctly, the Soviets employed some Guards divisions in Stalingrad too. One big difference, though; at Stalingrad, the Russians were defending, not attacking. Attacking is different, and generally done with the best troops, second line units being kept for garrison duties (holding on to captured towns) and protection of lines of supply. And if the Russian transport and communications look chaotic now, consider what it will be like when the Russians try to execute a "passage of lines" to replace the beat-up first wave units with the fresh elite units (do they even exist?) that are to replace them. It's a very difficult thing to do, so difficult that it's often commented on e.g. two French formations managing it when closely pressed at Austerlitz in 1805, and the ancient Romans are believed to have had a similar system for relieving wavering or tired troops with fresh ones, but such are the difficulties that historians can't agree on how they could have managed it. And in both of those examples the units would have been close to equal in quality.

What Russia is doing is horrific , but all out war with Russia and NATO will make matters 1,000 times worse, probably end Europe comletly - Compromise, and dialogue, with NATO assurances to pull back from East, in particular guarantee not to seek Ukraine to join, and get Russia to end the invasion , maybe have to give up parts of Eastern Ukraine. I can see no other solution , if we want Europe to continue.

There is a question of how much pain we in the West, and around the world, would be willing to endure if that can ensure the financial life is choked out of Putin's Russia and his war effort.

Are we willing to endure potentially higher fuel prices or thousands of refugees or yet more inflation?

I am not saying this to discourage support for Ukraine in this thing. I am saying it so that people make a conscious consideration. It's a very serious one. Again, I'm noticing a few trolls merrily planting their little thought seeds like that @[Deleted User] guy, saying, 'Y'know, they're saying there are 80,000 refugees from Ukraine on the way...', and the intention is very obviously to to paint them as a mere inconvenience, to chip away at support. They're not following through on what they're saying, they're just being the devil on your shoulder and letting you complete the sentence.

I'm not saying what anyone must do. Everyone's situation is different. I just think that we should remain aware that there is a consistent effort going on on the Internet in general to slowly suck the sympathy for Ukraine out of people, so don't fall for it. Ask those trolls to follow through on what they're saying when they make those little suggestions, for a start.

Some politicians assume Russia will back off a no-fly zone got implemented here. The reality is Russia likely to bring in Anti Aircraft s400 s500 for a war with the west. Be great it was 1939, and bring in western troops to help. Putin as the leader possesses nuclear weapons, hitler did not. If the west started attacking Russian forces not a chance in hell Russian officers and generals would not support Putin in that scenario,. The only chance here is the Ukraine war a failure and there a coup, but that in itself is dangerous. Who takeover Russia from Putin. Two sides fighting inside Russia may get their hands on a nuke and use it. May get a scenario like 90s that was relatively peaceful after the soviet union collapsed. I agree both sides positions are going to drag us into a dark place. When the nukes fly this site be offline in minutes.

Taking an objective military look with how Russia are doing so far and their assessing their ability is difficult. It seems like it is going poorly for them but here is some considerations;

There is propaganda on both sides , over estimates of russian losses of deaths and equipments by the ukranians etc in order to keep morale high. Standard stuff. However judging by independent takes it does seem like they're taking a lot of losses and logistics are a disaster.

This is the largest land grab in a long long time. Since operation barbarossa? Ukraine is such a large country, and although I'm aware it was decades ago with different technology now , but it took the mighty German wehrmacht 4 weeks to blitzkrieg Poland, a smaller and less well armed country than ukraine now. And invasion of this scale is uncharted territory in modern history and perhaps most countries would be doing worse than Russia right now. How America would far who knows although my gut is better than russia . Especially logistically.

Finally, Russias air force is puzzling. Barely being used and when it is its in small bursts and struggling badly. I read an article recently theorising it is not capable and experienced in the planning and execution of large scale operations. If that is true that is pretty shocking.

The Polish jet deal is mentioned in the FT so I doubt developments there are entirely false.

There are probably good reasons for Poland to deny it at this point.

The Russian diaspora is pretty big and must have plenty of family and friends back home.

How could the diaspora be used help combat the the state sponsored lies at home, especially as the country is ever more cut off more normal media?!

I think it's hard to appreciate the change of psyche in the past few decades. It's entirely changed. The Cold War carried on with fresh memories of serious warfare, millions dead. The Soviet Union is now gone, people have been living in a far more open society. In the US, people are far more likely to identify enemies in the same country than abroad. That is a seismic shift in people's mentalities. The same is true in Russia, to a lesser extent. People no longer believe with pure fanaticism that the state or the figurehead is more important than their lives or the lives of their children.

I'm calling it now, Putin orders a nuclear strike, he is dead within 24 hours and certainly before it is carried out. The grunts on the ground probably know no better life but the middle class, educated people that make up the higher levels of government and military will not throw away everything they have achieved over the last three decades because of one spiteful prick having a hissy fit or psychotic episode. It didn't happen in the days of the USSR and it won't happen now.

Perhaps not that much, based on what I've seen a few people saying who know or work with Russian ex-pats. It seems that even with all the western news media at their disposal, many still prefer the home-grown variety and so can be as poorly-informed as the plebs back home.

Richard boy Barrett disgusted we can put Ukrainians up while we have a homeless crisis.

Christ they are going into hotels also, not a house.

He never misses an opportunity.

The champagne socialists of the left boil my blood.

Daly, Wallace, RBB, Murphy

I dont see any chance of him launching a nuclear attack unless

a. There was an attack on the Russian homeland

b. There was an assassination attempt on him.

No one is suggesting to attack Russia. Just give them an ultimatum on Ukraine and drive the Russian military out.

Once that's done I believe the Russians will take care of part two themselves.