Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Correct, but this has been happening for decades at this point. The welfare states set up after WW2 were a devil's bargain. We now have entire swaths of the population that simply would not survive without the state, and generations have been raised to expect “the gobberment” to solve every problem that they have. 

In the last two years alone, the Irish state has let loose north of 40 billion euros of funny money into the economy, causing inflation and driving an already dodgy property market into overdrive. What’s the outcome of this? Likely there will be another crash years in the future, and another generation will be saddled with mountains of debt and dealing with an economic disaster. 

We can speculate as to what caused this, but in my opinion, the problem is that noone gives a damn about future generations. The demographics of Europe are broken, and the only way to keep the pension and welfare gravy train going is to turn younger generations and those not even born into wealth generating units for the state whilst importing a never-ending stream of immigrants to make sure that supply never meets demand. Anyone who criticises this is called vile names and ignored, but the immigrants themselves are abused by the state. I have friends from Romania who are living ten to a house and paying hundreds for the privilege. I don’t see anything wrong with calling that out!

The only way to fix this is to accept that things need to change drastically. Forget about nonsense like voting in Sinn Fein or any other group of neo-liberal puppet. Older generations cannot continue to retire at 60 and live for 30 plus years off the backs of younger generations, and the state can no longer be seen as the solver of every problem.  Is any of this likely to happen? Well history gives plenty of examples that make me feel nothing but a sense of doom.  

looks like prices of absolutely everything is going to significantly rise with major war in europe only starting.. any thoughts on how this will affect peoples ability to pay for nose bleed house prices here going forward or will the never ending upward house price madness trajectory continue?

serious inflation ahead - energy and fuel costs set to rise a lot, fertilizer may rise significantly too - all depends on what sanctions are put in place with Russia.

Shouldnt affect building materials too much, but general inflation will rise, wages will probably follow and house prices will follow that

Oil up 10, wheat and corn trading halted.

this is the end of the western fiat currency financed welfare nanny state.

Gold is up a fair bit in the last few days: https://goldprice.org/

Crypto took a hit today also.

A scapegoat - the Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with inflation and lazily and ignorantly we might see efforts to blame it for further, persistent inflation.

I see crypto mentioned above; as stated before, it is a "get rich quick" type scheme in the vast majority of investor cases with little interest in it from an innovation perspective and definitely no legitimate position of it as a hedging asset. In fact, it behaves more in line with risky stock (i.e. lucratively valued big tech stock). Of relevance to property is that, similarly, the demand and liquidity in the property market I feel is similarly at a risk of dissipating. Demand will be there in some form until it isn't, slowly it declines and then suddenly there is no demand. Certainly, when it looks like all new developments are, as standard, unaffordable to rent for the average worker, with no actual "affordable" rentals being put on the market in new developments (even hostels/co-living are asking 1200/1300+ pm for a bed), it seems like we could have an oversupply of newly developed rentals pretty quickly, especially if the State carpet gets pulled out from under the rental market.

Hmm the idea behind crypto was to create an alternative means of paying for things that would be removed from the "normal" financial system. However, that same system absorbed crypto and turned it into another asset. Few people seem even to know what a bitcoin is, but it is valuable because enough people think it's valuable. Then again, fiat currency isn't all that different...

We're a very strange species, when all is said and done.

supply and demand is an oversimplification of the issue, theres no conclusive evidence to support that increasing supply will cause a decrease in prices, but it should stablise markets, slowing the rate of growth of prices, many factors are at playing, causing the rapid growth of prices, many of these factors are unpredictable and out of our control

the central banks themselves, as they can never run out of money, this is exactly what the fed and the ecb have been doing, i.e. buying up the bonds, the debts themselves just sit on the balance sheets

Of course it is going to be regulated because as it's grows the risk grows. just look at stable coins which can be used to provide collateral for a trade as simple as an FX transaction which removes the need for a trader to have a bank account with a correspondent bank which removes the need for KYC and a lot of the money laundering checks. This makes it possible for certain individuals to use USD where if they were doing it via the traditional banking system they wouldn't be able to do so.

Apparently Ukraine is now the reason for high inflation - remarkable how quickly the narrative around inflation can change. Totally predictable as well, but no less BS.

Meanwhile in Blackrock, elitist fat cats say no to 500 new homes on their doorstep. The irony as well of people with houses barely worth €500k (St. Vincent's Park residents) trying desperately to prop up their value by attempting to block more supply.

exactly people will only be focused on surviving their electricity, car, heating and other bills and not have spare money left to pay for extortionate over priced houses...

Yet this war does not solve our fundamental supply vs demand issue if anything it will exacerbate it. We now have the retrofit scheme which will take building workers away from new builds as well. If this war continues you can bet your bottom dollar we will have millions of refugees seeking asylum and Ireland will be good little boys within the EU and take more than there fair share. Now where will they live?? So our current political leanings and policies will mean that we will have less building Laborers concentrating on new builds and more bodies coming in to live. I predict if this war goes on for any longer than a couple of months you will easily see another 10% rise in house prices by the end of the year (if not more). The government will have to start thinking about radically reducing tax on oil and gas otherwise there will be war on the streets in Ireland and you can forget about the Ukraine.

ah i think the owners can shoulder some of the blame too 😁