Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118686563#Comment_118686563

Where some see problems others see opportunity. A country who's economy is dominated by agriculture and mining surely skills that can be put to use in construction

Do you remember who was rumored to have built new York and London and their origins

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118686627#Comment_118686627

Yeah its getting there but its not just the labour effort going from new builds and the the possibility of more refugees to be housed its also the knock on effect of everything rising drastically with the likes of of fuel and other materials that go into building a house, if the cost of building goes up you can sure as sh1t put money on the builder not covering that cost so it will left to the buyer to pay it. I aint saying its right its just my prediction.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118686743#Comment_118686743

Well we have had a housing crisis now for 7 years + now why have these mythical workers your talking about appeared already. I mean there is serious money to be made in construction and other trades and yet if you talk to anyone looking for a tradesman they are out the door busy and hard to get and when you do get one they are very expensive.

jj880

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118686727#Comment_118686727

"The fundamentals are really sound this time".

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118685095#Comment_118685095

An increase in supply will only lower prices if the demand stays the same or falls. The only permitted solution to the housing crisis is build, build and build. This won't reduce prices because at the same time, the demand continues to grow, and no discussion about limiting demand is even entertained, if you know what I mean. So yes, I agree with you.

For my part, there is something very, very off about a state that one hand pontificates about sustainability whilst simultaneously claims that it wants to build tens of thousands of "houses" every year. The only thing the state wants to sustain is the infinite growth gravy train.

reds86

Been looking for a year for a 3 bed in north Dublin and haven’t had any luck, been outbid so many times. Now have the opportunity of getting a 3 bed north-east facing new build in a development not too far from our home place but not somewhere we’d ever considered living. Have a baby on the way so it’s making for a very tough decision. Any thoughts on new builds holding their value? We may find we want to move closer to home a few years down the line. Alternative is keep renting and hope for a bit of luck.

DataDude

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/27-the-shore-marina-village-greystones-co-wicklow-a63-y893/4572584

Bought for €825k in November 2020. A 40% increase in just over a year. Yikes!

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688361#Comment_118688361

Was that one of the ones bought when they dropped the prices ? I'd guess it is as a lot of them sold closer then 1m mark and higher even.

They could have given the driveway a clean and the front facade as well for the pics !

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688186#Comment_118688186

A north east facing is a South West back garden. Ya your front room may not have sunlight on a bright summer evening. However ideally you should be out in your back garden. In a NE fronted house you can watch GAA matches all year long in the sitting room.

Sorry I forgot the dubs are going into the doldrums.

Amadan Dubh

Ah yes, another case of QE being a solution looking for a problem. Now COVID is over, the Ukrainian crisis provides the perfect excuse to keep the free money sloshing into markets and assets. Similar situation to the Fed and its apparent rate rise that was going to be announced in the next two weeks. How convenient is Putin's timing!

The ECB members are elected by the European Council which of course is made up of the heads of State, in Ireland's case to date it has been either FF or FG leaders so of course there is a political incentive to keep up the policy to date which has enriched the older voters of the likes of FF/FG who, in reality, have benefitted with their pensions and house prices soaring in recent years at the expense of the younger, working classes. Philip "Never worked in the private sector" Lane was a Michael Noonan recommendation to the ECB back in 2015 which was around the time Noonan was busy going out to the capital markets with his Ireland cap in hand and a diddly eyed, green flag business brochure to hand out at roadshows to institutionals. What this means is that the ECB has a bias and is not necessarily looking to be all things to all men.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0224/1282683-ecb-meets-amid-ukraine-invasion/

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688643#Comment_118688643

Yeah good point actually, now that you say it I remember some price reductions back in 2020. Hard to work out from the PPR as there are so many different types of houses down the Marina.

Weird thing is, it doesn't even look bad value these days...especially when you consider it against Durkans looking for €1.6m for the 240sqm new builds on Church Lane. But yes, they could have at least made a bit of effort making the house look nice to justify their €300k profit!

reds86

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689187#Comment_118689187

Sorry I meant north east facing back garden.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689272#Comment_118689272

I suspect that in the coming weeks and months, all mention of the state's reaction to Covid will disappear, only to be replaced by talk of the Russians and how they have caused this inflation. I agree that the state is likely to use money printing to address high prices, because the tried and tested way of dealing with high prices is to give everyone more money, right? Shure if we all were given a million euros, the housing crisis would be over...

I do have to wonder where this is going. The plan here seems to be to convert the majority of younger generations and those yet to be born into life-long renters to keep investors and the pension funds of the older generations and civil service afloat. Can that be sustained? No main stream political party calls this out, and those that do are those deemed "alt right". We don't even need to talk about the Left...

How did we fall so far to be in this situation? Were humans always like this, or is there something uniquely selfish and myopic about the post-World War Two generation, the "boomers" as they are called?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118687102#Comment_118687102

You'd think if we had a government that had housing as their number 1 priority every effort would be made to make sure such obstacles would be overcome.

Maybe their bogged down in the paperwork for 27,000 working visa applicants already in the system just like Irish linked Ukrainian citizens waiting on travel visas that every other EU country does not require.

Labour supply ignored

Free money left on the table

Land left idle and costing money in upkeep and security

City centres left to fall to wreck and ruin with falling debris killing pedestrians.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688186#Comment_118688186

If your a FTB you could buy the new build and sell within 6 months if you dont like the house or the area, at least you will pocket the 30k FTB grant + any price increase (could be a decrease) minus the selling costs and then you can choose to rent or buy again after. Its a hard call I do not envy anyone buying or renting today. Just be wary of people on here giving advice. Do your own research all indicators that I see are pushing prices up but I am no expert and its hard to try and predict the unintended consequences of certain decisions being made or from certain events. I mean no one thought prices would go up during covid but no one could of predicted the record levels of savings built up over the last couple of years as people could not spend meaning people buying anything not just property had more firepower when it comes to purchasing. So anyone telling you on here that they have a beat on property prices are either guessing or has a vested interest. You need to look at the indicators for pushing prices up or down and weigh up your own unique situation. Best of luck let us know on here how you got on.

danfrancisco83

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689969#Comment_118689969

Just a note on "at least you will pocket the 30k FTB grant", you can't sell before 5 years with HTB grant. I'm not sure how that actually plays out, maybe you just pay back the tax

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690011#Comment_118690011

Yeap good call just looked that up your spot on.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690011#Comment_118690011

I think it gets pro-rated. Sell after 1 year - repay 80% HTB, 2 years 60% etc.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689785#Comment_118689785

Look the government are bad but you and others on here that are talking about housing being the number 1 priority will simply not be seen as the number 1 priority for a lot of other people living here, for example people who already own a home wont see housing as their number 1 priority. Now that may sound selfish but a person is not going to worry about something that is not affecting them. Anyways that is just an aside. Have you any link to the 27k workers coming in. I see that figure as what will be needed additionally for the retrofitting scheme but nothing on the workers migrating in here?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/new-generation-of-construction-workers-needed-for-housing-supply-1.4664403

Your also talking in riddles debris killing pedestrians is that the guy who got killed when a branch fell on him after the storm? and how does that tie into housing?

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118688361#Comment_118688361

these were simply sold way too cheap.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646176#Comment_118646176

https://lisney.com/property/2-feldberg-upper-glenageary-road-glenageary-co-dublin/

they cut to 1025 (from 1100). Obviously there was no interest at that level.

bought for 850 ao adding 200k it might sell around there now.

Villa05

We have a government that at various stages claimed the following were there priorities

Best little country to do business

Housing

And lately combating inflation

Guess what - affordable housing is the silver bullet, so the question needs to be asked why government continually pursue policy that achieves the opposite from a position of oversupply an abundance of land, and reducing cost of Finance. There policies have reversed all those advantages in housing provision over a decade

I'd question your assertions that existing homeowners are not concerned about housing affordability given their inclination to have children and potential dependency for income on children in their retirement.

All claims submitted have been backed up by links on this thread in the past

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690350#Comment_118690350

If someone continually does one thing whilst saying another, what does that tell you?

I think that you are correct that many homeowners are starting to realise that ballooning prices are not a good thing when they have "children" in their mid 30s who cannot move out. However, there are many more who benefit from this or simply don't care. Regardless, the policies that created this disaster were cooked up by people who certainly do benefit from the current situation. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

My own opinion is the housing will continue to inflate until something outside of the power of the state causes this to change. I don't know what that could be, but one thing is very clear to me. The state and a sizable slice of the population want this to continue for as long as possible, and they are willing to sacrifice the futures of anyone who doesn't benefit to keep it going as long as possible. If there is anything that gives me hope it's that after the 2008 crash and massive money printing of the last two years, enough people may finally reliase that the state's ability to interfere in the economy has got to be reigned in.

Separation of Church and state was a good idea. Let's see if we eventually get the separation of economy and state.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118689687#Comment_118689687

Exactly.

* Whirrrrrrr * go the QE, magic money printers in the ECB.

Another article trotting out a narrative about the Ukranian crisis. The groupthink at the establishment in politics and the ECB has us already over the edge of a cliff and the question is how bad the fall will be as there is no way the State can unwind its economic and markets supports and be replaced by an economy which generates sufficient activity to replace the State. I really think it's just so convenient that COVID came along right when the whole thing was starting to unravel and at the exact same time that COVID is over we have a new "crisis" to justify the massive money supply increase. Groupthink is most certainly present with the establishment so embedded in State organs for so long, in Ireland and Europe such as France and Germany. But it seems we are entering a new phase with what has happened in the last German and Irish elections with France due to have elections this year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-another-wave-of-economic-uncertainty-has-hit-1.4811364

Having just come through the unprecedented economic storm of the pandemic, another wave of uncertainty is now hitting.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

Is QE and permanent money printing the new way markets are supposed to work?

Soon they wont need a crisis and it'll just be the way it is. Constantly in a battle against inflation, and ever increasing house prices.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

As I recall, there was a lot of talk in 2019 of a coming economic correction. I think some states in Europe did actually go into mild recessions that year, but I can't find the source.

Anyways, the Faustian pact that was globalism really is running out, and the devil wants his due. If money is constantly printed, hyper-inflation will be the result, and if that happens, we'll yearn for the good old days of 2008.

growleaves

In the Commonwealth of Virginia:

https://theroanokestar.com/2022/02/24/virginias-inventory-of-homes-for-sale-plummets-to-all-time-low/

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690508#Comment_118690508

Wonder if those people realise the a massive correction could well coincide with their retirement and with generations to come saddled with debt and extortionate costs, who pays for their living and healthcare expenses

Why do you think Russia and China are flexing their muscle right now, they know the West has backed themselves into a corner. Don't interrupt your enemy when they are destroying themselves

Putin is a chess player and kgb agent, as well as a war monger everything is well calculated

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118691121#Comment_118691121

Unfortunately I think Russia and China together have the West by the balls with their military and economic power combined. Even with Ukraine, the EU can do diddly squat as we're too reliant on Russian gas. At the same time I think that's why nothing big will really happen with the Russians invading Ukraine as Ukraine is not in the EU to have strong allies there nor is it in NATO. It's just going to get what Russia wants to give it.

The net effect is that economically we are in an absolutely retched state and geopolitical tensions will show just how weak the collective EU economy is (due to misdirected QE towards assets instead of more sustainable and productive endeavours) when it comes to bargaining power and the harder the EU pushes the greater risk of strong pushback which could have devastating impacts on our economies and lead to the significant asset corrections that are being threatened.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690676#Comment_118690676

Funnily enough gas prices are down 25% in the last 3 months and nearly half the peak price in that period set on the 27th of Jan