Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Some sort of Green Bond issued by States and bought by the ECB will be QE under a different name, unless the ECB can be taken down a peg or two. I think what will happen is that we will have populist and protest votes more and more in Ireland. It is the people that vote, not the funds and that is something that cannot really be controlled in Ireland like it can be in the US. It wasn't that long ago that SF were openly anti-EU and even the Irish people have form in rejecting EU treaties. For me, it's all down to housing; let people put a roof over their head through work and, with their health in good order, they have the foundation of a comfortable and fulfilling life.

If way more people want to live in London than there are houses/flats what is your idea to solve it?

the most logical is smaller homes and higher prices. No one has a birthright to a residence in a place of choice. This is insanely anti meritocratic.

The plot thickens. I thought this was a prank when first posted

Not a prank, evidence of our dyfunctional market. Im all for repurposing buildings, but using old commercial buildings as residential accommodations without the necessary upgrades is a slippery slope. When we start accepting reduced standards for accommodation by commercial operators (regardless of motive) it can quickly become normalised and the most vulnerable in society bear the brunt.

We are seeing this at the other end of the scale also with the co-living concept that is described by developers as an "innovative solution for todays property market" (again which is completely dysfunctional). Complete bollox.

I think the market has got this way via different decisions made over the last 2 decades. It seems that our supposedly middle of the road governments that have been in power over the last 20 years have given handouts and special treatment to both our lefties and our righties and to their own species. I honestly believe that those in power think that if they give something to the left they have to give something to the right in order to balance it out and make it look like they are in the center when it comes to their political stand point. Yet what people here don't understand or have failed to connect the dots too is that it is those of us in the middle paying for the lot and they get phuck all in return. Our services and infrastructure is getting worse by the day. What our taxes paid for 20 years ago no longer pays for same even though we are paying a hell of lot more in taxes (e.g bin services, full use of all roads/no tolls, etc)

So just a quick look at the headline decisions in our recent history that have played a huge part in our financial situation.

To our Left

Very high welfare

preferential treatment to people who don't work for housing above those who are working

The family home protected no matter what

To the Right

Bank bailouts

REITS/Vultures preferential treatment.

Corporation tax - why so low , why cant we as employees pay the same rate.

Own Species/Public sector

Bench-marking.

Not one forced job loss during the crisis.

Gold plated pensions that cant be touched - even do private pensions where robbed.

No accountability.

Until the unwashed masses that are our electorate (and I include myself as part of the unwashed) understand that its our perma-government that are the ones with the power not FF or FG and Sinn Fein will find this out when they get in that they cant unravel a system that has been in place since the beginning of the state. We need a serious over-haul of our public sector pensions system that rewards good public servants including politicians and people who look after their own interests or just clock watch get little or nothing. I have said on here before any government should cut the sh1t out and put up a 10 point plan of what they will implement and for every point they get implemented in their 5 years they get 10% of their allotted pension. I find it galling that some people in the system that have really phucked us over (Bertie ahern - take a bow my friend) are still getting more than most of us here who are working while in retirement all being paid for by us the tax payer and yet we are told this cannot be changed.

Yet here we all are with landlords blaming tenants, tenants blaming landlords, People with houses telling those who have not got one to "save and stop spending", those without a house telling those with a house "sell your house for less than its worth its all for the common good" Yet every issue with the housing market can be laid squarely at those in government both those in power and those behind the scenes with the real power and yet we will continue to slam other sectors who have had no hand, act or part in where the housing market is today.

No.33 Brian Boru Avenue - 22/09/2014 €90,000.00

No. 37 Brian Boru Avenue - 28/01/2013 €148,200.00

No. 36 Brian Boru Avenue - XX/XX/2022 €475,000.00

My personal view is that, if that house is still worth €425,000.00 or more in the next 2 years (i.e. less than a 10% reduction) I'll admit I may not know what I'm talking about.

Well paid workers not coming to Ireland at the same numbers pre-covid at the same time as supply of BTRs picks up at long last and therefore paying €1k p.m. in rent for a room in the suburbs is shown up for the ludicrous, unsustainable practice it is; and this makes a tiny 1 bed apartment sized house in Clontarf not as attractive to rent and therefore struggles to justify it's €475,000 valuation.

Renting that house for 1800 p.m. would be a yield of 4% approx and paying a mortgage for someone who lives there would be (assuming 20% deposit) €1700 p.m. approx. for 25 years. It would be a struggle to rent that place for €1800 I think when the dust starts to settle next year post-pandemic and the economy inevitably slows down a little to a lot.

You could be right. But as far as I know things like the new retrofitting program will not only bring people to Ireland to get some of that cash, it will also shift the attention of some builders from new jobs to upgrades. Also our welfare rates will continue to attract lots of welfare tourist not to mention the time taken for our scheme of taking an undocumented worker and making them legal going from 8 years to 4 months will also be jumped upon. So I dont see any slow down of foreign people coming here they will just have to find other areas to rent outside of Dublin and other highly populated areas. So Clontarf (DART line, good bus service, by the sea with good pubs and restaurants and also ability to walk/cycle to town) you dont see this as an attractive area to rent ?? REALLY..

I am struggling to see how your point of view , but you could be right.

You will find we will have an overcrowding problem in the next decade with regards to bodies to house ratio. You forget that low paid workers get a lot of subsidies from our left leaning government to survive they will also have a higher standard of living here remember we have not had the ravages of war or famine so just having a chance to live for some of these people will draw them out of their country , our left leaning nature and money for all will draw them here. I cant see anything changing we will have more bodies and the likes of the new retrofitting scheme will take building workers away from new builds - meaning supply will suffer more and supply is the only thing that will make a difference.

Also 30 minutes walk is not that far in my book if it means you can get to work. Also there are bus stops that are literally a 2 minute walk from it that will bring you to the city center. You also have the seafront right beside you. The place is small but the location IMO is excellent.

They are fundamentally different business models, and they way in which they raise capital to purchase (or build) is different.

Rising interest rates will impact the viability of both however - if REIT yields are not sufficiently above bonds and other less riskier investments then theyre in trouble. And developers are far more exposed to the cost of finance, so interest rates hurt their ability to raise capital.

Yes but REIT funding is primarily through their own investors, developers must raise finance elsewhere (& pay it back).

Given that the only way REITs pay back their investors is through dividends, it is effectively 0% financing.

Thanks for posting timmy, seems to be alot of costs outside of land andconstruction

Anyone know why it would cost €9k to sell a property assuming you are selling multiples of the same type, location in an environment where demand far exceeds supply

Cost of Finance seems extortionate given interest rates and again the supply demand dynamics 30k

Contributions: is this exclusively water, sewage, and power connections. Seems excessive at 24k. Had the water charges been introduced would this be much lower

Vat 50k+ need to look at a system where this is a small recurring charge that actually covers local services and that doesn't result in the developer pocketing the savings

Professional fees: 15 to 20k what does this include. Is this the system that costs less than 1k in Northern Ireland and is performed by an independent body. Ie oversight that the housing complies with regulations and practices.

Profit/risk: 40 to 60k per unit

180k of costs that could be chipped away at with better practices and systems. There appears to be lots that could be done to bring down costs were the will to do so present