Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645432#Comment_118645432

only because they changed the entrance.

unless they had their own address wrong?

https://planning.agileapplications.ie/dunlaoghaire/application-details/63078

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118641000#Comment_118641000

The last 2 houses in Cualanor sold for just above 1mm. And one of them had one of the best south facing gardens in the estate.

nearby older Brickfield drive ones (same size, a rated, just more dated interior) usually sold above 900k in 2021.

I think this might end up like 2 Feldberg (bought 850k) and lie around for long time

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-2-feldberg-upper-glenageary-road-glenageary-glenageary-co-dublin/3607488

that being said if I was owning these would hold out for similar. Pointless moving in the current market as you might have to pay up for follow on purchase. Some desperate guy might come along. Rents around there (Cualanor) are 3700-4000pcm for these houses. So renting an additional year costs 50k and given limited choice might be able to find a sucker.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646020#Comment_118646020

i did think they were taking their lead from feldberg (smaller house but better location imo), and as you say as long as the current situation persists someone will probably come along and buy it.

I have a few neighbours that were coming from europe for work and bought as renting as so expensive, anyone in that situation who bought in 2015 on wards and i selling now to go back is in a great position. anyone selling here to trade up not so much.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645133#Comment_118645133

Downsizing is a horredously expensive business. Anyone who does it or is thinking of it is mad.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645658#Comment_118645658

That's brave of you. I believe I might have first raised it, together with questioning why there is rural farm next to DCU, but was shot down with the argument it's better that availabilty of housing remain low than green areas be lost - though golf courses don't exactly seem to be of much benefit to any but the very rich few.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646020#Comment_118646020

Yeah fair point - although I always wonder who’s actually paying 4K per month in rent unless it’s subsidised by their company. I could maybe stomach it for a short period to tide us over if we had to, but paying €50k a year to rent in Cualanor for a prolonged period really blows my mind.

Personally I’d find the Feldberg house much more attractive, and yes it’s been sitting on market a while. Location is much better but also size of estate. Went to a viewing in Cualanor a couple years back and had to tell the EA at the door there was no point showing us around. The scale and density of 3 story housing in there and Honeypark just wouldn’t be for me.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646083#Comment_118646083

Upsizing still works as imo the higher in price you go, the less competitive the current market is. For every additional 100k you get so much more value for money (relative to what you’re selling).

and yes, I did the same. Bought when I moved here. Rent saved is more important to me than any profits though. Managed to pay off the loan balance (was a consumer loan from Germany) and now outright own it.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646182#Comment_118646182

i think the upsizing market is pretty hot up to 2m to be honest, take for example the house on albert road listed at 1.6 and bid at over 2.1m.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645290#Comment_118645290

That is not what happened - it's an armchair theory that doesn't actually fit the specific facts of what actually appears to have transpired. The developments in question were sold at or around the time of actual completion, therefore you can't link pre-selling with finance as there was no pre-selling at t he time the finance was raised. The argument that REITs and large property vultures are necessary to FUND development is disproven. No developer is going to likely have any problem getting finance given the current demand for housing. We didn't need REITs and other POS to fund housing in the past and we don't need them now.

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646182#Comment_118646182

This definitely isn’t true. 2022 is an all time terrible time to upsize. Inflationary markets are always bad times to upsize but this one in particular as the price pressure in percentage terms is far higher in more expensive markets.

400-800k range is up 15-20% since 2019

€1.5m+ is up 30% and more.

Contrast that to 2018 where, whilst market as a whole was still creeping up, the premium market was struggling.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646291#Comment_118646291

loads of nuewbuilds in 400-600k range are up to 40% higher.

i don’t see the booming 1.5mm market, maybe that’s very local to SCD coastal areas. But the Monterey houses in D4 were selling slowly, same for Annesley Gardens in Ranelagh. Sandymoubt castle court still not sold out (despite these feeling very cul de sac settled area instead of a classic estate).

14 Thormanby Hill just sold 1.7mm (below ask)when the rest was sold 1.5mm in 2018 (+15% mac)

cualonor + 800k gives you that:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I-856XnIdD8

DataDude

My perspective is in commuter belt where dynamics are different I guess. However have seen many articles over last while citing how the sub €1m market was hot in 2021 and the €1m+ was scorching. Global phenomenon too, not just here.

Id assume it’s because LTI limits are less of a factor and the boom in equity prices are more relevant.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646360#Comment_118646360

i guess mostly depends on the property. But the absolute main driver is build costs and that mostly affects lower priced new-builds and fully done up settled area houses (as refurb costs are up even more and availability limited).

right now everything is very limited unless ground floor apartments are your thing.

Still think some city center apartments offer decent vfm

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-camden-lock-south-dock-road-ringsend-dublin-4/4570151

turn key condition, C1 BER, 4600eur/sqm, super central, Can keep for life as good rental (3bed near google etc.)

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646258#Comment_118646258

I pointed out the issues with REITs 5+ years ago. I disagree with there tax status. However I can see there use in the building if apartment blocks. Most Apartment blocks cost in the 30-80 million euro to fund. Can developers fund them completely I am not sure. Even after completion they may have to wait 6-12 months before all units are sold.

Units may be pre sold without the same being completed until after the block is completed. After the noughties we lost a number of larger developers. I am not sure if we have that many left that can complete 50+ million projects off there own bat.

It is not necessarily that the block is sold but that an agreement to purchase is entered into by a pension fund. This may then allow developments to happen faster.

Timing belt

Inflation down 0.4% month on month and would be down 0.9% if the minimum pricing of alcohol was not introduced.

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646319#Comment_118646319

It is definitely a hot market between 1.3 and 2m along the cost for sure, foxrock has lost a lot of its appeal in recent years so i wouldnt use that as a yardstick.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118646484#Comment_118646484

In addition to the lunacy of the tax situation, we also have the state in effect underwriting the investment funds activity though enhanced long term leasing

There is a place for investment funds however they should be restricted to urban apartment developments that they fund and pay taxes similar to domestic landlords on profits and subject to capital gains

If you have inflation at 10% in housing and access to finance at 0%. The effective cost of finance is - 10%.

They have enough incentives provided by central banks and a dysfunctional property market.

It stinks of political party's putting the party before the country another parallel with the celtic tiger bust and reminiscent of the incredibly poor value public private partnerships

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647147#Comment_118647147

how do they have access to 0% finance costs?

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647023#Comment_118647023

Same goes for lots of Terenure and even some parts of Rathgar. College square in Terenure, the houses that sold in 2021 were not “crazy” prices.

Itsthe tech couples buying and they want to be on the dart, ie scd and malahide are booming. Further inland it’s a tricky commute.

Villa05

What do you think the cost of Finance would be for the largest investment funds for a project that has state guaranteed income for 30 years at 4 to 5% return, is inflation hedged and the building has to be handed back in the original condition it was handed over.

Bare in mind that state bonds were returning negative rates in the same time period

optogirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645607#Comment_118645607

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647382#Comment_118647382

I would imagine that the finance cost to build would be 4-6% if risk was low due to pre purchase of apartments and 6-8% otherwise

MacronvFrugals

The PAC heard that when rental subsidies, HAP and the Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS) are taken into account, roughly 90,000 households were in receipt of State assistance in 2021, with HAP and RAS between them costing €721m.

Number of HAP tenants to increase to 72,000 this year

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40810314.html

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118647692#Comment_118647692

Would an investment fund not have other peoples capital and use that to get a return therefore the cost of Finance is effectively 0

Or

Could they issue bonds paying (for example) 0 to 2% to fund the project(s)

Or

Have I got the business model all wrong

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648074#Comment_118648074

The logical conclusion to this policy is that ultimately, at some stage, the entire rental market will be socialised. At this stage I'm thinking that is ultimately the goal.

As a capitalist, this is not what I want to see but this is a FF and FG policy to create a corrupt two tier society of the ultra wealthy and the underclass. It is where we are headed undoubtedly so long as housing costs do not fall materially (rental market correction of 40% would be a current best guess for some sort of sustainability or else we're heading for a rental market socialist dystopia).

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648262#Comment_118648262

investors in the fund will be expecting a return on their investment so their is a cost of capital regardless of business model. I believe this is around 4-6% where there would be minimal risk and 6-8% if risk of selling properties exists.

The fund could issue bonds but there would be issuance costs and rating agencies fees etc… that would need to be taken into account and the bonds would be investment grade bonds so would attract a higher yield than 0-2%.

Sure is getting crazy out there….

London’s smallest microflat up for sale at £50,000 for 7 square metres

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/17/londons-smallest-microflat-up-for-sale-at-50000-for-7-square-metres?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

It is expected to go for more as it was bought for £103,500 in May 2017.

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648388#Comment_118648388

No one bats an eye in London. Here Ruth coppinger and their ilk would be up in arms.

”Jacinta and little jayden need a city centre 3bed semi to be near maaaa and nana…”

optogirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648513#Comment_118648513

You don't think people should be up in arms about that bullshi*?

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118648305#Comment_118648305

Yes I agree.

Institutional money - which is hand in glove with Western governments - is hoovering up single-family houses, quickly turning this nation and other nations into renter’s debt slave prisons.

UBI has been trialled with PUP and its equivalents in other countries.

In the future everything will be rented or allocated and that is the WEF scheme ("You will own nothing and be happy"). Although most people would rather cut their own arm off than believe in a conspiracy theory.

I expect also that onerous ad valerom taxes (incl. property taxes), mandatory "carbon-friendly" renovations and increasing costs of materials will make it more difficult for people to hold onto their existing homes. Perhaps there will be a scheme to sell them to the government in return for an "allocated" space.

QE could be replaced by a new monetary system (after a crash?) using digital blockchain credits.

All speculation obviously.