Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

Dohnjoe · 23-01-2022 11:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523282#Comment_118523282

No one is saying vaccines are 1000% safe. Not the Lancet, not anyone. If you think that, then you are grossly mistaken (we've had injuries, even deaths from Covid vaccines). What they are saying is that vaccines are overwhelmingly safe.

Again, if you think you know more than the consensus of experts on this, okay, but what information do you have that they don't?

hometruths · 23-01-2022 11:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523374#Comment_118523374

Of course I don’t have information that the consensus of experts have, that’s ridiculous.

i have far less information, only what is published. However a lot of what is published is very informative.

look at the UK vaccine surveillance reports, for some time they have been publishing the covid case rates per 100k vaxxed and unvaxxed.

those numbers have, for a few months, been showing that the vaxxed are contracting covid at a far higher rate than the unvaxxed.

that i think is a worry.

King Mob · 24-01-2022 12:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523435#Comment_118523435

What point are you arguing man. The safety or the effectiveness?

In this post you only seem to be discussing the effectiveness. But a few posts ago you were arguing against its safety.

Flip flopping like this is a pretty common anyi vaxx tactic. They switch between the two topics to keep themselves from being cornered on either.

So do you agree with the majority of experts and organisations that state the vaccine is as safe as any other medicine? Or are they wrong about this also?

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 12:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523435#Comment_118523435

I think your worry is misplaced, reading one of the latest ones they address this

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1049160/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-3-2022.pdf

"Results

The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated (Table 12). This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

The rate of hospitalisation within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals.

The rate of death within 28 days or within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and again is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to fully vaccinated individuals.

Interpretation of data

These data should be considered in the context of the vaccination status of the population groups shown in the rest of this report. In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than from COVID-19. The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and deaths should not be used to assess vaccine effectiveness because of differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data. There are likely to be systematic differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, for example

testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case

• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

These biases become more evident as more people are vaccinated and the differences between the vaccinated and unvaccinated population become systematically different in ways that are not accounted for without undertaken formal analysis of vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described on pages 4 to 12 in this report."

That addresses it pretty well. And on the chart below that (which I suspect you are reading) they put another big disclaimer

"1 In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19."

Does that alleviate your worry?

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 12:20am

A study from Jersey, where 75% of the pop is vaccinated found "unvaccinated people were between 2.2 – 3.7 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those who have received at least two doses. "

https://www.gov.je/Health/Coronavirus/CoronavirusDocuments/R%20COVID%20Cases%20Vaccine%20Status%20Report.pdf

hometruths · 24-01-2022 12:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523520#Comment_118523520

No, this bit is precisely the cause of my worry:

testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case

• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

these explanations have been used for months now, and may have been plausibleish to explain very slightly higher rates in the vaxxed than the unvaxxed? But are they credible to explain double the rates?

So the unvaccinated, who are supposedly less health conscious, are being twice as careful now as the more health conscious vaccinated? Were they only 1.2 times as careful in late October/early November?

But despite being so much more likely to be cautious against contracting Covid, the unvaccinated are much less likely to get themselves tested, if they do get symptoms? Notwithstanding the fact the unvaccinated are incentivized to get tested due to use of recovery certs?

And these differing behaviours only hold true for the reporting period of the latest data, prior to that period the more cautious unvaccinated were actually "more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report" than the more reckless vaccinated thus "this gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks"

And the above continues to hold true over numerous reporting periods during which the gap between the vaccinated and unvaccinated has continued to widen?

Do you really think that is plausible?

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 12:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523600#Comment_118523600

Just checking you understand proportions (you never know on this forum). If there are 49 unvaccinated in ICU, and 51 vaccinated, that means there are many more times the number of unvaccinated in ICU than vaccinated, you understand that right?

hometruths · 24-01-2022 12:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523622#Comment_118523622

Yes I understand that perfectly. Why do you ask?

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 12:40am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523637#Comment_118523637

Good, and you see the rates I posted for Jersey. Unvaccinated approx 3 times more likely to contract Covid than vaccinated..

Astartes · 24-01-2022 12:47am

The very fact that countries made it impossible to sue the corporations if it destroys some of their people raises an eyebrow no?

Why aren't they open source also? If they are so crucial for humanities survival?

hometruths · 24-01-2022 12:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523650#Comment_118523650

But why shift the discussion from the data in the UK vaccine surveillance reports which are counted confirmed cases in a population of 70m to a link from Jersey dealing in estimates in a population of 100k?

Are you claiming the Jersey figures are more accurate/reliable and if so, why?

link to UK data

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 12:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523680#Comment_118523680

Because I think you don't understand the statistical disclaimers all over the figures, which is what they warn about (we've also had massive issues trying to explain the VAERS and Yellow Card disclaimers, often with no success)

So it's easier to focus on something simpler like Jersey cases

Or recent US cases which demonstrate (again) that vaccinated are more likely to get Covid than unvaccinated, and of course dramatically reduce hospitalisation and death.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?s_cid=mm7104e2_w

hometruths · 24-01-2022 1:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523714#Comment_118523714

I understand the disclaimers perfectly well.

The unvaccinated are less likely to have caught covid in this reporting period, because they caught it previously.

oh, but we said that it previous reporting periods too.

you never answered if you thought these explanations were plausible?

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 1:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523746#Comment_118523746

The below make sense to me. Especially the last two points.

"• testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case

• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues

• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks"

As I've linked, other countries/areas are showing vaccinated individuals are less likely to get Covid than unvaccinated. So I don't share your concern on that.

As for hospitalizations/deaths - the vaccine is a no-brainer in that regard.

"According to the CDC, adults who are 65 and older and have received both doses of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine showed a 94% reduced risk of Covid-related hospitalizations."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/21/cdc-covid-vaccine-hospitals-americans

In terms of vaccine safety, the risks are tiny, we are seeing e.g. myocarditis basically on almost the same level as it naturally occurs (AND on top of that there are suspected caveats to those statistics)

Again, I am looking at the same data you are, and I don't share your concerns. Neither do the experts.

astrofool · 24-01-2022 1:46am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523676#Comment_118523676

In Europe you can sue the corporations to your hearts content, surely you have a safety issue to sue them for as well?

hometruths · 24-01-2022 2:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523789#Comment_118523789

So these are the two points that especially make sense to you:

people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19

• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks"

so the first point is saying that the vaccinated are at increased risk of exposure to covid due to increased socializing etc because they have the confidence of their increased protection, maybe upto 90%. Notwithstanding that increased protection, this factor partly explains the higher rates amongst the vaccinated in this reporting period

meanwhile the second point is saying, the unvaccinated who are being very cautious this reporting period, were more likely than the vaccinated to have caught covid in previous reporting periods, when the vaccinated were not taking advantage of their 90% protection and being their usual sociable selves

and this consistently has held true for Several reporting periods

seems legit.

robinph · 24-01-2022 8:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118523676#Comment_118523676

I believe that the Oxford vaccine has been made available for other manufacturers to produce if they asked for the licence. The Astra Zeneca deal was just to do with the initial roll out, but they don't have exclusive use.

Igotadose · 24-01-2022 12:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524058#Comment_118524058

Isn't there an 'open source' vaccine coming out via Dr. Peter Hotez, frequent commentator on CNN? https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/15/corbevax-covid-vaccine-texas-scientists

King Mob · 24-01-2022 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118524970#Comment_118524970

Huh wow. Another conspiracy theorist claiming personal unverifiable experience as evidence?

My brother and Canadian girlfriend also work in every hospital in Ireland and they say the exact opposite and they they could probably beat up your brother.

Also a reminder you previously were assuming that you had the omicron variant based on your assumption that's what most people had. Where you just lying then or...?

King Mob · 24-01-2022 1:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525135#Comment_118525135

Since we're making up things, let's say they are neurosurgeons.

Also not sure why you're trying to insult them here. Maybe my post was a bit over your head and you think that they actually do work at a hospital?

King Mob · 24-01-2022 1:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525199#Comment_118525199

Lol. And again, because you're in a pissy mood, you're throwing out a false accusation and insults.

If this thread is a waste of time, why do you and your conspiracy buddies keep coming onto it and telling lies?

Why do you get so upset when people point out that's what you're doing?

King Mob · 24-01-2022 1:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525249#Comment_118525249

Lol. Dude, how many questions and points have you dodged in these last few pages?

Be honest.

And of course, you're asking a question I don't think you can actually answer yourself in the context of the conspiracy you believe.

Because that isn't supplied to you by your twitter grifters.

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 1:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525249#Comment_118525249

The Irish government are removing restrictions because hospitalizations are relatively alright (despite the high case numbers)

This time last year, we weren't vaccinated, so the equivalent numbers were hospitalizing (and killing) many more people, proportionally. Now that we are vaccinated, despite very high and record case numbers, our national health system is not under critical pressure like it was in the past. Likewise in the UK, they are experiencing very high cases, but again, their health system is not under critical strain like it was in the past (thanks mainly to vaccines) ergo they don't need additional lockdowns or high levels of restrictions

robinph · 24-01-2022 2:20pm

Wondering if someone who knows extentsive details about which variants of covid that people in ICU have due to having chats with their sibling, but who has been flying back and forth to the US and needing to get vaccinated despite not believing in vaccines has ever had a chat with their sibling about if vaccines work or not. Seems that the consultant is happy to chat about covid with their anti vax sibling, but hasn't mentioned to them anything about getting a booster jab and leaves the anti vaxer to source their information from conspiracy sites instead.

Something doesn't seem to add up with the stories.

hometruths · 24-01-2022 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525413#Comment_118525413

Stephen Donnelly said yesterday on Newstalk that most covid patients in ICU had been in for a while with Delta.

King Mob · 24-01-2022 3:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525594#Comment_118525594

Ok. So can you quote where he said this or should we just take your word for it? Cause that would be a very silly thing for people to do given how you guys have been utterly dishonest throughout this thread. You've misrepresented things and out right lied about quotes before.

Also, is this the same Stephen Donnelly who's behind the push for the vaccines?

Why would he claim this if it shows that the vaccines aren't effective and that there's a conspiracy going on?

Is he lying when he claims that people should get the vaccines and boosters, but telling the truth about who has which variant?

shillyshilly · 24-01-2022 3:11pm

shhh ... you're not supposed to mention the part they don't agree with

Igotadose · 24-01-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118525594#Comment_118525594

He said 60% were unvaccinated. He didn't say most were in with Delta, he wasn't specific about how many had Delta and how many didn't.

Dohnjoe · 24-01-2022 6:21pm

An estimated two-thirds of anti-vax disinfo created by just 12 influencers, I remember this being reported last year aswell. They put out nonsense and their supporters will blindly evangelise it.

https://news.sky.com/story/two-thirds-of-anti-vax-propaganda-online-created-by-just-12-influencers-research-finds-12521910

robinph · 24-01-2022 8:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118527318#Comment_118527318

Of the just 2% of hospital staff in Ireland who are unvaccinated, you just happen to be related to one of the likely even lower percentage of consultants who are unvaccinated and also happens to have access to information that the government doesn't appear to be aware of regarding the diagnosis of which variant anyone in ICU has... And rather than sharing that information with the relevant bodies to analyse the numbers, they instead tell their sibling who posts about it on a conspiracy theory forum.

Covid vaccines - thread banned users in First Post

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